当心美股估值泡沫，警惕回调风险

期货日报2020-08-07

7月，美股上涨动能明显减弱，主要的拖累因素包括：一是美国新冠肺炎疫情二次暴发，投资者担忧美国经济重启受阻；二是美国相关救济财政措施纷纷到期，市场担忧政策刺激力度减弱；三是美股盈利受疫情影响而下滑，在美联储美元加码宽松的情况下，美股估值存在调整的风险。展望后市，美股调整的风险并没有完全消除，尤其是盈利下滑带来的估值去泡沫调整还将持续。影响股指走势的因素：一是企业盈利，这和经济增长前景有很大关系；...

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精彩评论

弗兰克潘
2020-08-08
弗兰克潘
吃着别人的饭，砸着别人的锅，放下碗筷就骂娘，也只有老虎做的出来了~👍
卡尔洋
2020-08-07
卡尔洋
忽悠你妈呢，风险你大爷，滚回去看你A股的风险吧
- 刚出生的韭菜:
  他们只是不希望你们把钱投给mg，中美这关系
卡尔洋
2020-08-07
卡尔洋
泡沫你大爷的，每次出来唱衰你妈，**老虎，听了你们这些**分析每次都卖飞
lh123
2020-08-07
lh123
忽悠我做空两年了，看这类新闻比亏
我就是阿硕
2020-08-07
我就是阿硕
哪个王八来蛋说得，署名出来我看看，难道不担心，a股吗？虽说美股风险大，a股风险也不小！大家同是地球村，还是觉得A股太垃圾
- Buddycream:
  A股就是陷阱
- 我就是阿硕:
  😏
- 我就是阿硕:
  😏
- 龙混魔:
  都是担心的美股回调的声音美股就会继续牛下去不断刷新高 [开心]
- phil888:
  唱衰美股已经很多年了，年年月月被打脸，已经没脸没皮了，哪里还敢署名哦！！
止盈止损从容
2020-08-07
止盈止损从容
a股创业板的pe好像比纳指高吧？
- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引

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Map的统计数据，目前美国是交通出行修复状况最弱的国家，修复至四成左右。\n就业市场修复也在放缓，甚至倒退。截至7月25日当周，美国初请失业金人数连续第二周增加，达到140万人，而且这还不包括80多万份大规模失业援助申请。\n关注救济政策对经济的影响\n7月30日，美联储将基准利率维持在接近零的水平不变，并誓言将动用所有工具来支持受疫情冲击的经济。发布的政策决议与此前相比几无变化，继续维稳各项政策措施的同时依旧强调了疫情对经济的冲击，但也重申之前采取的措施已经产生效果，而未来的政策走向仍要基于疫情发展而定，因而购债力度将维持在当前水平。\n值得关注的是疫情对经济的“反通胀”作用，这意味着美元流动性泛滥继续推动铜价的难度会越来越大，只有通胀大幅攀升，铜等周期性商品上涨空间才会打开。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，经济的复苏道路将在很大程度上取决于疫情的发展进程。这场仍在暴虐的公共卫生危机将在短期内严重影响经济活动、工作和通胀，并对中期经济远景构成相当大的危险。\n8月3日，美国芝加哥联储主席埃文斯表示，美联储在任何时候可能都不会动用负利率这种政策选项。眼下包括补充性失业救济和暂停驱逐令在内的救济政策即将到期，总需求问题正在酝酿之中，财政政策对于推动经济复苏至关重要。\n需当心下半年美股估值回调\n为应对疫情冲击，美国推出大规模财政刺激政策，让国会成了决定货币供应量的掌舵人，“直升机撒钱”措施推动M2货币供应出现史上最大升幅，这实际上利好股票。目前，美股领涨的依然是成长型股票和科技股，都是货币流动性的受益者。\n然而，因为美联储宽松政策没有加码，美股估值会相应调整。截至8月4日，标普500指数ShillerPERatio依旧高达30.45倍，还高于1930年大萧条时期“黑色星期二”时的最高纪录，仅仅低于2000年互联网泡沫时期创下的纪录高点44.19倍。\n图为标普500指数ShillerPE\n美国企业盈利下滑不可避免\n与中国不同的是，疫情对于美国经济和企业盈利的影响更多体现在二季度。虽然一季度标普500EPS也同比大幅下滑13.4％，但其中一半都是银行计提贷款损失拨备影响前置所致，因此，二季度大概率是美股盈利年内最差季度。根据Factset汇总预期，目前市场预计标普500指数二季度净利润（可比口径）同比下降-45％，较一季度大幅下滑；预计纳斯达克综指二季度同比下滑-38%。除EPS外，标普500指数和纳斯达克EBIT利润预计同样下滑明显，标普500指数及纳斯达克综指均下滑32%，反映了疫情较严重阶段的冲击。\n不过，由于美股回购的力度在二季度卷土重来，这对美股估值挤泡沫调整有对冲作用，因此美股表现相对坚挺。不过，可以确定的是美股股息分红大概率会下降。美国股市是一个成熟的市场，是按国际惯例按季分红，每年上市公司赚到的利润有50%—70%是用于现金分红，但可以确定的是美股股息分红大概率会下降。\n芝商所高级经济学家Bluford Putnam和Erik Norland的研究结果显示，尽管目前标普500的股价从低点反弹了25%，且接近历史高点，但跟4月初相比，2028年、2029年和2030年股息支付的情况并不乐观。截至7月初， 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