过于乐观？小摩称新毒株引发大跌是抄底机会，疫情有望结束

金十数据2021-12-02

奥密克戎可能成为一种催化剂，推动收益率曲线变陡峭。摩根大通策略师认为，新型变异毒株奥密克戎引发的市场动荡可能为投资者提供了调整头寸、为重新开放和大宗商品交易趋势逆转做准备的机会。摩根大通策略师Marko Kolanovic与Bram Kaplan在周三的一份报告中写道，虽然奥密克戎可能更具传染性，但早期的报告表明，它可能也不那么致命，这符合历史上观察到的病毒进化模式。这最终可能对风险市场是...

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JanetXinru
2021-12-02
JanetXinru
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Xiaomo said that the sharp drop caused by the new strain is a bargain-hunting opportunity and the epidemic is expected to end","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ab8bc8007ca9586724b1a243c5c90ca","symbols_score_info":{"JPM":0.9},"content_text":"奥密克戎可能成为一种催化剂，推动收益率曲线变陡峭。\n\n摩根大通策略师认为，新型变异毒株奥密克戎引发的市场动荡可能为投资者提供了调整头寸、为重新开放和大宗商品交易趋势逆转做准备的机会。\n摩根大通策略师Marko Kolanovic与Bram Kaplan在周三的一份报告中写道，虽然奥密克戎可能更具传染性，但早期的报告表明，它可能也不那么致命，这符合历史上观察到的病毒进化模式。这最终可能对风险市场是利好的，因为这可能标志着疫情结束在即。这两位策略师写道：\n\n “奥密克戎可能成为一种催化剂，导致收益率曲线变陡峭（而不是变平），市场从成长股到价值股轮动，从疫情和封锁中受益股票将遭到抛售，重新开放题材股将反弹。我们认为，这些领域最近的抛售是一个机会，可以趁周期性因素、大宗商品和重新开放题材下跌时买入，并为更高的债券收益率和曲线趋陡做好准备。”\n\n摩根大通的策略师们写道，一种不那么严重、传染性更强的病毒会迅速取代更严重的变异，这符合历史模式，这可能会使奥密克戎成为一种催化剂，将一场致命的疫情转变为更类似于季节性流感的东西。\n此前，以Dubravko Lakos-Bujas和Mislav Matejka为代表的摩根大通策略师们在年度展望报告中写道：\n\n 奥密克戎等“偶发性挫折”，应该放在“自然免疫和疫苗接种后免疫增加、死亡率显著降低、特效药诞生的大背景下”来看待。我们预计，冠状病毒肆虐后的生活正常化将在2022年继续在全球范围内实现。\n\n他们还写道：\n\n 由于供应冲击缓解，新兴市场的环境改善，消费者支出习惯正常化，企业盈利增长好于预期，市场仍有上行空间，不过幅度会更温和。\n\n摩根大通的策略师们预测，到2022年底，标准普尔500指数将从目前的水平上涨9%，攀升至5050点。他们预计，中国股市的表现将超过整体新兴市场，新兴市场的表现将超过发达市场，欧洲股市的表现将超过美国股市。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":603586199,"gmtCreate":1638427525837,"gmtModify":1638427532077,"author":{"id":"3573976318383866","authorId":"3573976318383866","name":"JanetXinru","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6684e4383a1bbe361c14eb7ce56ede5f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573976318383866","authorIdStr":"3573976318383866"},"htmlText":"N","listText":"N","text":"N","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603586199","repostId":1133281570,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6811832,"gmtCreate":1638427639320,"gmtModify":1638427639348,"authorId":3582212677594923,"author":{"id":3582212677594923,"idStr":"3582212677594923","authorId":3582212677594923,"name":"Diaschy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023e36d76d8f4434c4ca55ea9d316933","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":603586199,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"🔥","text":"🔥","html":"🔥"},{"id":6811830,"gmtCreate":1638427635372,"gmtModify":1638427635404,"authorId":3568626352541392,"author":{"id":3568626352541392,"idStr":"3568626352541392","authorId":3568626352541392,"name":"LawrenceCW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962262e528e64dff78a74edaba2a5aac","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":603586199,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"666","text":"666","html":"666"},{"id":6811809,"gmtCreate":1638427530519,"gmtModify":1638427530547,"authorId":3573976318383866,"author":{"id":3573976318383866,"idStr":"3573976318383866","authorId":3573976318383866,"name":"JanetXinru","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6684e4383a1bbe361c14eb7ce56ede5f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":603586199,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"U","text":"U","html":"U"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1133281570"}