Amazon Vs. Alibaba: Comparing The Risks

seekingalpha2021-03-25

Summary The potential return is largely beyond our control. But the risk that we take can be assessed and compared more or less objectively. Amazon's higher average return comes with relatively low ...

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精彩评论

xuanlin
2021-03-30
xuanlin
Reply my comment please
- xuanlin:
  Hi
Meshaarias72
2021-03-28
Meshaarias72
Analysis fist ya
khorgc
2021-03-26
khorgc
Both are good
Whyeloon
2021-03-26
Whyeloon
Agree...i own both stocks but bigger position in Amazon
Jerome54
2021-03-25
Jerome54
BABA is really cheap at this valuation. Expecting it to shoot up to 275 by Q4.
Wins888
2021-03-25
Wins888
cool!

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Alibaba: Comparing The Risks","media":"seekingalpha","content":"<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe potential return is largely beyond our control. But the risk that we take can be assessed and compared more or less objectively.\nAmazon's higher average return comes with relatively low ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415811-amazon-vs-alibaba-which-is-riskier\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Vs. 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Alibaba: Comparing The Risks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-25 20:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415811-amazon-vs-alibaba-which-is-riskier><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe potential return is largely beyond our control. But the risk that we take can be assessed and compared more or less objectively.\nAmazon's higher average return comes with relatively low ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415811-amazon-vs-alibaba-which-is-riskier\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"09988","symbol_name":"阿里巴巴-W","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415811-amazon-vs-alibaba-which-is-riskier","article_id":"1132521046","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132521046","pubTimestamp":1616676840,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nThe potential return is largely beyond our control. But the risk that we take can be assess","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"translate_title":"亚马逊vs.阿里巴巴-SW：比较风险","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"BABA":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nThe potential return is largely beyond our control. But the risk that we take can be assessed and compared more or less objectively.\nAmazon's higher average return comes with relatively low risk.\nStatistical assessment of the risk parameters speaks in favor of Amazon.\n\nPhoto by picture/iStock via Getty Images\nWhen it comes to investment, we very often focus on assessing the potential return, which is largely beyond our control. But the risk that we take can be assessed and compared more or less objectively. And it is in this context that I propose to compare Alibaba (BABA) and Amazon (AMZN).\nIn my calculation, I used the monthly total price return since October 2014 - the day BABA started trading.\nLet's start with basic parameters.\nThe first thing that catches your eye is that Amazon's distribution of returns is close to the normal distribution. This attests to the stability and predictability of results:\nWhen it comes to investment, we very often focus on assessing the potential return, which is largely beyond our control. But the risk that we take can be assessed and compared more or less objectively. And it is in this context that I propose to compare Alibaba (BABA) and Amazon (AMZN).\nIn my calculation, I used the monthly total price return since October 2014 - the day BABA started trading.\nLet's start with basic parameters.\nThe first thing that catches your eye is that Amazon's distribution of returns is close to the normal distribution. This attests to the stability and predictability of results:\nWhen it comes to investment, we very often focus on assessing the potential return, which is largely beyond our control. But the risk that we take can be assessed and compared more or less objectively. And it is in this context that I propose to compare Alibaba (BABA) and Amazon (AMZN).\nIn my calculation, I used the monthly total price return since October 2014 - the day BABA started trading.\nLet's start with basic parameters.\nThe first thing that catches your eye is that Amazon's distribution of returns is close to the normal distribution. This attests to the stability and predictability of results:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nAs for Alibaba's shares, the histogram of its returns is not so close to the normal distribution:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nFurther. Amazon's arithmetic mean monthly return is almost double that of Alibaba. However, Amazon showsless risk: its value of standard deviation is lower:\nSource: Author\nAmazon's semi-deviation (a measure of the fluctuation in returns below the mean) is also lower. At that, the coefficient of variation of AMZN's return is lower than that of BABA. This means that for each percent of Amazon's average return, there is less risk than for that of Alibaba.In other words, Amazon's higher average return comes with relatively low risk.The perfect combination!\nSource: Author\nLet's take a look at deeper parameters. Median and arithmetic mean of monthly returns of Amazon are very close to each other, which indicates the symmetry of the distribution of returns. In addition, Amazon's distribution of returns demonstrates positive skewness and excess kurtosis equal to 4.04. This means that, firstly, Amazon's returns tend to deviate toward the positive side relative to the average values and, secondly, in comparison with a normal distribution (excess kurtosis of the normal distribution equals 3),the actual distribution of AMZN's returns is more concentrated around the average value.\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nIf you are confused, these graphs allow you to clearly understand the essence of these parameters:\nSource: justusjp.medium.com\nNow let's take a look at Alibaba:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nHere is a similar situation, but it loses to Amazon. Median and arithmetic mean are close to each other. The positive skewness also is present, and excess kurtosis is 3.37.But both are lower than those of Amazon.\nNow let's take a look at the history of companies' annual total price returns. In Amazon's case, we have a lower standard deviation limit above zero:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nIn the case of Alibaba, the situation is worse. Here, the lower standard deviation is negative:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nAs you can see, historically, investing in Amazon has provided higher return at lower risk.\nBottom Line\nAmazon and Alibaba have a lot in common. Both companies are far from their quantitative and qualitative growth limits. At the same time, both companies have their own risks. In the case of Alibaba, it's a sovereign risk. In the case of Amazon, these are risks associated with its size and market share. And at the moment, these risks are difficult to compare.\nI understand that the analysis performed is based on historical data. And the future won't necessarily be the same. But at the same time, one cannot deny the presence of inertia both in physics and in the field of human psychology, which determines the behavior of financial markets. Therefore, it is highly probable that a similar analysis will show approximately the same results in a decade. Therefore, at the moment, I am of the opinion that investing in Amazon is less risky compared to Alibaba Group.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":355597563,"gmtCreate":1617082783652,"gmtModify":1634522745720,"author":{"id":"3575152506937716","authorId":"3575152506937716","name":"xuanlin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575152506937716","authorIdStr":"3575152506937716"},"htmlText":"Reply my comment please","listText":"Reply my comment please","text":"Reply my comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355597563","repostId":1132521046,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3919142,"gmtCreate":1617082792595,"gmtModify":1635746632677,"authorId":3575152506937716,"author":{"id":3575152506937716,"idStr":"3575152506937716","authorId":3575152506937716,"name":"xuanlin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":355597563,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Hi","text":"Hi","html":"Hi"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":352848268,"gmtCreate":1616936654254,"gmtModify":1634523478799,"author":{"id":"3577781617271173","authorId":"3577781617271173","name":"Meshaarias72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5282cda6a9d3948fc067b21adcb578c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577781617271173","authorIdStr":"3577781617271173"},"htmlText":"Analysis fist ya","listText":"Analysis fist ya","text":"Analysis fist ya","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352848268","repostId":1132521046,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":358798413,"gmtCreate":1616728032632,"gmtModify":1634524327362,"author":{"id":"3577490358002933","authorId":"3577490358002933","name":"khorgc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65a0addb29d13bd2bfdcfb44b21f26dd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577490358002933","authorIdStr":"3577490358002933"},"htmlText":"Both are good","listText":"Both are good","text":"Both are good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358798413","repostId":1132521046,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":358259548,"gmtCreate":1616708373684,"gmtModify":1634524492024,"author":{"id":"3559128077154435","authorId":"3559128077154435","name":"Whyeloon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44cc3fba457549bd6dbe449c8aa6c640","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559128077154435","authorIdStr":"3559128077154435"},"htmlText":"Agree...i own both stocks but bigger position in Amazon&nbsp;","listText":"Agree...i own both stocks but bigger position in Amazon&nbsp;","text":"Agree...i own both stocks but bigger position in Amazon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358259548","repostId":1132521046,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":358683656,"gmtCreate":1616684850875,"gmtModify":1631886122557,"author":{"id":"3552885056817828","authorId":"3552885056817828","name":"Jerome54","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/825ef4837c48c2b23ec8141a914b88e4","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3552885056817828","authorIdStr":"3552885056817828"},"htmlText":"BABA is really cheap at this valuation. Expecting it to shoot up to 275&nbsp;by Q4.","listText":"BABA is really cheap at this valuation. Expecting it to shoot up to 275&nbsp;by Q4.","text":"BABA is really cheap at this valuation. Expecting it to shoot up to 275 by Q4.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358683656","repostId":1132521046,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":358694798,"gmtCreate":1616683395614,"gmtModify":1634524560834,"author":{"id":"3573623994106312","authorId":"3573623994106312","name":"Wins888","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573623994106312","authorIdStr":"3573623994106312"},"htmlText":"cool!","listText":"cool!","text":"cool!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358694798","repostId":1132521046,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":30,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1132521046"}