美联储要“收水”，美股真的会跌吗？跌多少？

格隆汇2021-08-19

一个讨论已久的taper问题，让全球金融市场再一次闻风丧胆。美联储的会议纪要公布后，美股昨晚尾盘的加速下探，进而引发全球金融市场巨震，连带铁矿、能源、有色等大宗商品全线暴跌。今天早上日韩股市跟随大跌，午后港股午盘接力，然后下午欧洲股市也跟着遭殃，全金融市场，几乎无一幸免。在公布的美联储会议纪要中，美联储首次明确讨论Taper（缩减购债），还在专门设了一个“讨论购买资产”的内容章节。从民间...

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精彩评论

AB_Iphone
2021-08-19
AB_Iphone
Oh no
- Miaw:
  咋办
- AliciaLing:
  😌
天罡金斗
2021-08-19
天罡金斗
不要搞得恐慌过度了！
A_Isopod
2021-08-19
A_Isopod
销售数据不振，就业率还没完全恢复，PMI如预期水平。但却通胀高涨？还能是什么原因，这个国际supply chain，尤其船运方面一直被卡，这1年半运费都冲出九霄云外了那肯定通胀啊。加上原油价也上涨。TM让supply chain恢复正常，那3兆美元还没涌进市场前还可以缓缓现在这个通胀。说白了其实只是政府/金融机构目前控制市场所需的话而已。还是得适当的戳一戳泡沫对吧。
松月清风
2021-08-19
松月清风
应该大概率
白洋水军
2021-08-19
白洋水军
三大美指目前均被高估，收水就是刺破泡沫的那根针。
cheong6265
2021-08-19
cheong6265
Gg
- cheong6265:
  gg
- Henry1088:
  gg
- cheong6265:
  gg

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fall?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33a1a206843d1a93efb037cbf2f33249","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"一个讨论已久的taper问题，让全球金融市场再一次闻风丧胆。\n美联储的会议纪要公布后，美股昨晚尾盘的加速下探，进而引发全球金融市场巨震，连带铁矿、能源、有色等大宗商品全线暴跌。今天早上日韩股市跟随大跌，午后港股午盘接力，然后下午欧洲股市也跟着遭殃，全金融市场，几乎无一幸免。\n\n在公布的美联储会议纪要中，美联储首次明确讨论Taper（缩减购债），还在专门设了一个“讨论购买资产”的内容章节。\n从民间讨论，到官方首次明确，并给出更加具体的时间，这个信号几成为一切恐慌的来源。\n似乎收水时间提前已是共识性结论，但问题是，美联储在这个问题上已经多次态度飘忽不定，这一次，它真能不顾一切摁下这个可能早就改摁的“核按钮”吗？\n01高烧不退的通胀\n美联储的这个纪要并没有做出任何细节的决定，只是说就着价格稳定目标、就业目标方面已经接近让人满意的水平。但一如既往的，成员间“还存在的分歧”，主要问题在于很多人还是认为“通胀的上涨是暂时的现象”。\n说实在的，美联储最近有些坚守凯恩斯主义的意思，将“充分就业”放在了首位，通胀数据如今好像成了附庸。\n美国宽松的货币政策、巨量的财政补贴、复苏的经济不断刺激着CPI的增长，该指标自今年3月就突破2%的门槛，6、7月的同比增速更是到达了历史高位5.4%，经济呈现复苏过热的苗头。\n\n美国民众对着日益高涨的物价，早也苦不堪言，虽然还有很多居民可以领取丰厚的失业救助金，但生活消费品如肉类、水果、蔬菜等价格都出现疯狂飙升，让救助金的购买力不断下降。\n而如今参议院已通过的1.2万亿基建和3.5万亿美元的预算开支计划也还将持续不断地刺激着美国甚至全球基建相关的原材料价格的增长，这给未来通胀的进一步上涨埋下了可能。\n供应紧缺方面其实在PPI上也有体现，7月PPI同比上涨7.8%，PPI和CPI之间差距不断扩大，企业利润情况受到压缩，后期可能会传导至消费端价格。\n由此看来，通胀的压力还是很大的，不一定能和预期一样平稳回落至正常水平，从这方面判断，CPI增速的不稳定性对于经济和股市都将不是利好的信息。\n按理说通胀数据过高，美联储就应该采用紧缩措施进行控制，但美联储迟迟未给出明确指示。而是不断安抚市场说“距离加息还很遥远”。\n这背后，除了德尔塔疫情再爆发的影响，也与目前就业数据的涨跌尚未能让人放心有关。\n\n但更主要的，重病下猛药实为不得已的高风险疗法，并不是一招致胜就后顾无忧。现在美国通过超大规模放水“吃猛药”扶持起立的经济复苏，虽然有了极大的成效，但埋下的后遗症却是极大，一个是依赖性极强，另一个是通胀高烧不退。\n正是如此，美联储在收水的考虑上，才一直飘忽不定，犹豫不决。因为它深知一旦药停，代价可能非常大。\n02经济真的过热了吗？\n其实美国经济的强度在一些表现上还没强到超出美联储的预期，不同的数据之间存在着矛盾。\n首先是美国制造业稳健恢复，7月份制造业PMI录得新高63.40，超出预期。\n但美联储最关注的就业方面的情况好像还没有触及其门槛。\n虽然自年初以来失业率下降明显，现回落至5.4%的水平，优于预期5.7%，但是和疫情前的3-4%还是有一定的距离。另外8月12日当周，首次申请失业金人数为37.5万人，距离疫情前平均水平20万人还是有差距。\n\n同时，职位空缺的数量不断增大，这说明就业的增量还不足以补足岗位的需求，劳动力市场的供需不平衡的情况日益严重。\n而拜登3月推动的1.9万亿美元纾困法案至9月才停止，符合资格的居民可以领取高额的救济金。部分居民想着能躺着挣钱，当然对找工作没了想法，这就从某种程度上抑制了本土就业市场的恢复，使得企业产品的供应上不来，市场供需依旧紧张。\n\n此外，消费数据还没有达到预期，美国商务部日前公布7月零售销售数据，环比下降1.1%，，前值为增长0.6%。\n由于个人消费支出占美国经济总量的约70%，该数据作为衡量整体经济健康状况的指标受到市场密切关注。而数据的增长乏力，说明了美国消费还没有恢复原本的和预期的增长力度。后期如果停止了补助，消费可能会丧失增长动力。\n\n自疫情以来，美国财政支出规模不断增加，2021财年美国财政支出高达7.7万亿美元，支出主要用于失业救济、营养援助和新冠救援项目。\n参议院还在近日通过了拜登的1.2万亿美元的一揽子基建计划和主要致力于反贫困和改善气候环境3.5万亿的预算计划。若是在后期顺利通过众议院审核，那高额的财政支出又将拔高。\n实际上拜登的整体施政方针并没有超出民主党一贯的理念，依旧是通过高额的财政支出拉动经济，而其所依靠的资金来源就是通过发债及加税。如果加税没有办法弥补上述的支出金额，那只能又靠发债。\n而若美联储将利率保持较低利率，会更有利于积极财政政策实施。\n\n根据华西证券的研究，美国从1984年至2015年曾经历过四次降息周期。这四个时期，美联储开始降息时都面临着较大的经济下行。除了1984-1986这个时期，后面三个时期在降息不久后，都出现了经济衰退，而到降息中后期，经济逐渐得到恢复，重获增长动力。\n\n那用历史的轨迹推至今日，美国加息应该在经济自身恢复稳定正常的增速时，加息的脚步才会到来，而从现在的表现来说（比如消费、就业方面的指标）可能还没到达考虑加息的时刻。\n但面对高额的通胀率，美联储向抗通胀模式转向可能是不可避免，接下来的就业数据将是关键，若是失业率回落至5%左右，taper将会快速到来。\n03这一次美股会大跌吗？\n关于美股会不会蹦的话题，大家已经被讨论过了无数次，也被打脸了无数次。\n美股到现在为止，除了去年的疫情突发冲击，到如今已经长达12年的大牛市行情。即使是在收水呼声不断提升，海外市场明显震荡的背景下，三大指数依然不断创出新高。\n但这一次相比以往，是更复杂的宏观环境，更高的通胀问题以及更大的债务规模，如果真是一个收水周期的开始，美股还能一如既往扛得住吗？\n金融是市场的波动最底层的影响因素是经济面和流动性层面。\n在经济面，虽然一些副作用挺多问题也挺大，但总体上美国的经济强势复苏是确定性方向，经济不断复苏肯定会逐渐反应在企业层面的业绩增长，这也是支撑企业股价的力量。\n美股的一季度整体业绩就开始大超预期，包括汽车、耐用品、零售、媒体、金融、医疗保健、信息科技、原材料等主要行业的EPS同比增速都非常高，除了去年疫情冲击导致的低基数外，经济快速复苏也有很大作用。\n二季度，很多行业公司表现出来的业绩增长也继续维持超预期的强劲。\n现在机构对美股2021年的盈利一致性预期增速高达38%（上半年50%+），2022年有望回归疫情之前的水平。虽然下半年开始由去年低基数带来的高增速会逐月回落，但市场预期预计三季度盈利增速依然有24%，整体依然可观，对应下来，美股当下的估值并不显得太贵了。\n截止目前，美股道指的市盈率26.4倍，纳指40.3倍，标普500的指数27.2倍，除了纳指，总体上相对其他主要市场并不算贵。\n并且占据大权重的各大超级巨头目前的市盈率也并不高，市值最大的前top20中，除了特斯拉外，其余的估值真的还很低，超出很多人的意料。\n\n在流动性方面，实际上，美元的作为全球货币锚，即使是小幅度收紧流动性，其实对美股来说从来不是大问题，因为全球资金会回补，这个事情在过去发生过无数次了。除非美联储要超大幅度收水，否则美股出现大幅度下跌的可能性会非常小。\n近一年来的宏观风险事件非常多，市场也不乏大幅度回调，但全球的资金依然偏好更大的股市，尤其美股市场，一直是重中之重。这种情况下，美股就算有泡沫，也很难会失去资金支持，何况经济基本面趋势并不算差。\n\n（2021年全球市场资金股债流向分化  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chain，尤其船运方面一直被卡，这1年半运费都冲出九霄云外了那肯定通胀啊。加上原油价也上涨。TM让supply chain恢复正常，那3兆美元还没涌进市场前还可以缓缓现在这个通胀。说白了其实只是政府/金融机构目前控制市场所需的话而已。还是得适当的戳一戳泡沫对吧。","listText":"销售数据不振，就业率还没完全恢复，PMI如预期水平。但却通胀高涨？还能是什么原因，这个国际supply chain，尤其船运方面一直被卡，这1年半运费都冲出九霄云外了那肯定通胀啊。加上原油价也上涨。TM让supply chain恢复正常，那3兆美元还没涌进市场前还可以缓缓现在这个通胀。说白了其实只是政府/金融机构目前控制市场所需的话而已。还是得适当的戳一戳泡沫对吧。","text":"销售数据不振，就业率还没完全恢复，PMI如预期水平。但却通胀高涨？还能是什么原因，这个国际supply chain，尤其船运方面一直被卡，这1年半运费都冲出九霄云外了那肯定通胀啊。加上原油价也上涨。TM让supply chain恢复正常，那3兆美元还没涌进市场前还可以缓缓现在这个通胀。说白了其实只是政府/金融机构目前控制市场所需的话而已。还是得适当的戳一戳泡沫对吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838808258","repostId":1132455826,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":838170248,"gmtCreate":1629382829384,"gmtModify":1629382829384,"author":{"id":"3581633260547881","authorId":"3581633260547881","name":"松月清风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/563946e81ad8d446eae4bee4e99a1bf0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581633260547881","authorIdStr":"3581633260547881"},"htmlText":"应该大概率","listText":"应该大概率","text":"应该大概率","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838170248","repostId":1132455826,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":838148825,"gmtCreate":1629382534667,"gmtModify":1629382534667,"author":{"id":"4090632547992330","authorId":"4090632547992330","name":"白洋水军","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d36332188b14386d68f11122c22d020a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090632547992330","authorIdStr":"4090632547992330"},"htmlText":"三大美指目前均被高估，收水就是刺破泡沫的那根针。","listText":"三大美指目前均被高估，收水就是刺破泡沫的那根针。","text":"三大美指目前均被高估，收水就是刺破泡沫的那根针。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838148825","repostId":1132455826,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":838376561,"gmtCreate":1629378579753,"gmtModify":1633685308057,"author":{"id":"3572776965259682","authorId":"3572776965259682","name":"cheong6265","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca7e234da6cd2aa2bcbbd0ccbb67927e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572776965259682","authorIdStr":"3572776965259682"},"htmlText":"Gg","listText":"Gg","text":"Gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838376561","repostId":1132455826,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5579621,"gmtCreate":1629378620984,"gmtModify":1635147751380,"authorId":3572776965259682,"author":{"id":3572776965259682,"idStr":"3572776965259682","authorId":3572776965259682,"name":"cheong6265","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca7e234da6cd2aa2bcbbd0ccbb67927e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":838376561,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"gg","text":"gg","html":"gg"},{"id":5580248,"gmtCreate":1629381457747,"gmtModify":1635147708270,"authorId":3586861699655404,"author":{"id":3586861699655404,"idStr":"3586861699655404","authorId":3586861699655404,"name":"Henry1088","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":838376561,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>gg</u>","text":"<u>gg</u>","html":"<u>gg</u>"},{"id":5591176,"gmtCreate":1629461313159,"gmtModify":1635146949102,"authorId":3572776965259682,"author":{"id":3572776965259682,"idStr":"3572776965259682","authorId":3572776965259682,"name":"cheong6265","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca7e234da6cd2aa2bcbbd0ccbb67927e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":838376561,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"gg","text":"gg","html":"gg"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":64,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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