“投机浪潮”有多疯狂？看这8个指标就够了

金十数据2020-12-21

上市热潮、股市大涨、期权热潮和比特币热潮都暴露出了一场前所未有的投机狂潮正席卷全球…… 华尔街以其疯狂的“动物精神”而闻名，但仔细分析一下数据会发现，这轮牛市可能会比看上去的还要“疯狂”。全球股票市值目前约为100万亿美元。美国的公司IPO筹集了创纪录的1750亿美元，但现在有大约3万亿美元的公司债券的收益率为负。在疫情肆虐的情况下，经济周期一直岌岌可危，企业也受到新一轮封锁的打击。在看似...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

西都客
2020-12-22
西都客
[强]
Claraaa
2020-12-21
Claraaa
高压
大汉双林
2020-12-21
大汉双林
Ride the wave
- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
TimeTrader
2020-12-21
TimeTrader
即使没有疫情现在这种情绪也是非常不对的，再有疫情加持更不合理，炸弹随时爆炸！戴好钢盔，捂紧口袋[财迷]
searryyy
2020-12-21
searryyy
还会继续。。嗨了十几年了再停不下来了。。停下来就再也拉不上去了。。噗嗤噗嗤噗嗤
Fred_6810
2020-12-21
Fred_6810
下跌10%，废话少说

发表看法

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“如果这还不是投资者情绪狂热的一种表现，那我们不知道这是什么了！”\n\n02 股市暴涨\n今年，美国股票交易平台Robinhood成为华尔街讨论的热门话题，散户对科技期权和航空公司股票的各种股票进行大规模的投机行动。\n随着散户投资者和机构投资者都在追逐上涨的股市，标普500目前的市盈率比2000年的最高值高出16%左右。\n不止标普500指数，整个美国股市都在上涨。\n罗素3000指数中被高盛做空最多的一篮子股票本季度上涨了约40%，是大盘指数涨幅的三倍。高β系数的股票（即波动性更高的股票）与低波动性的股票相比，接近2011年以来的最高水平。\n\n根据SentimenTrader的数据，罗素2000指数每次从低点上涨95%以上，在接下来的三个月里都会出现亏损，而目前该指数较3月份的低点已经上涨了约100%。\n03 期权热潮\n看涨的散户投资者不仅活跃于股市之中，今年还前所未有地进入到复杂的衍生品市场。过去20天，美国各交易所日均成交约2200万份看涨合约，创历史新高。\n\n芝加哥期权交易所的股票看跌看涨比率跌至近10年低点，这意味着投资者们是如此坚定地追逐个股的上涨。\n04 并购狂热\n公司间的并购狂热是投机热的另一个非常明显的迹象。\n继第三季度创下纪录后，本季度有望成为2016年以来交易撮合活动最强劲的季度。标普全球股份有限公司收购IHS Markit，以及超微半导体公司收购Xilinx都是这些交易中的重头交易。\n鉴于近年来企业现金余额不断上升，而交易量占市值的比例仍低于长期平均水平，近期的交易活动可能只是个开始。\n05 欧洲IPO市场也变得疯狂\n即便是规模比美国小得多、很少首日就大涨的欧洲IPO市场，也变得疯狂起来。\n外媒的数据显示，自11月9日辉瑞疫苗的消息引发了股市的牛市以来，在欧洲证券交易所上市的44家公司平均涨幅达16%。其中约70%的公司目前的股价高于当时IPO的价格。\n投资银行RBC Capital Markets的股权资本市场联合主席Darrell Uden表示：\n\n “鉴于股票估值的上升，IPO再次成为保荐人可行的退出途径。”\n\n06 信贷市场重新繁荣\n在有近18万亿美元债券的收益率为负的情况下，投资者被迫以历史新高的价格大量购买风险较高的公司债券。\n在美国，垃圾债券的收益率已大幅下跌，远低于今年早些时候评级较高的债券可以发行的水平。\n\n就连堕落天使号邮轮的运营商嘉年华公司（Carnival Corp.)今年也在逐步降低保费。目前收益率为负的公司债券的规模超过3万亿美元。\n07 新兴市场热闹非凡\n对于新兴市场国家来说，今年也是一个繁荣时期，在2020年超过7300亿美元的美元债券和欧元债券被发行，比以往任何一年都要多。\n\n举几个典型的例子吧。\n即使是在政治动荡的情况下，秘鲁还是发行了债券，其收益率还是创下了发展中国家有史以来的新低。\n另外，尽管西非国家科特迪瓦参与了G20的债务减免计划和国际货币基金组织正在实施的计划，但该国以欧元计价的债券价格仍低于去年。\n08 比特币多头回归\n在支持比特币的人来说，随着一波新的资金涌入，比特币今年涨幅超过200%，这表明加密货币的时代已经到来。\n而对华尔街的许多人来说，这只是非理性繁荣的又一新迹象。Yardeni Research的分析师们在一份报告中写道：\n\n 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