Netflix Is Entering a New Era, Leaving Its Haters in the Dust

Barrons2021-10-25

With its earnings report this past week,Netflix has blown up the bear case on the stock. On Wall Street, there’s been a long-running debate on whether the Netflix (ticker: NFLX) model would work in ...

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skyel
2021-10-25
skyel
All thanks to Squid Game
ChiiKang
2021-10-25
ChiiKang
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The revenue model is indirect: Netflix creates or buys content, generating revenue by signing and keeping subscribers. For years, it tapped the debt markets to fund content creation. Skeptics thought the company might never generate enough revenue to self-finance new content. Bulls always knew content costs would increase over time, but they had faith that subscriber revenue would grow faster and that Netflix eventually would become a self-sufficient, cash-flow-generating machine.\nIn the first half of 2021, skeptics had the upper hand, and the stock flatlined. The pace of new content introductions slowed, due to pandemic-related production issues, and subscriber additions swooned, bottoming at a worst-ever 1.5 million net adds in the June quarter.\nBut the company’s better-than-expected third-quarter report turned the tables. Netflix added 4.4 million net new subscribers, boosting its total to 213.6 million, well above its own forecast. It expects to add another 8.5 million net new subscribers in the December quarter, in line with its fourth-quarter performance over the past three years.\nNetflix says it will no longer need to borrow to finance new content and expects to be free-cash-flow positive in 2022 and beyond. It has begun buying back stock—$100 million in the latest quarter—while making acquisitions in its core business and in its emerging interest, mobile gaming.\nWhile the company continues to show rapid subscriber growth in Europe and Asia, growth in the U.S. market has slowed to a trickle. But Co-CEO Reed Hastings still sees a huge opportunity to expand the company’s domestic position. In its quarterly letter to shareholders this past week, Netflix noted that streaming video still accounts for just 28% of overall U.S. TV viewing hours—with Netflix at just 6% of the total—even as consumers continue to cut the cord.\nIt is tempting to tie the strong third quarter to the launch of the Korean-language series Squid Game, which, as Netflix noted, was viewed by 142 million households in the first four weeks since launch, making it the company’s most successful new series ever. But the real power of the Netflix model is its gigantic content budget, which is producing an array of popular shows—Stranger Things, Ozark, Bridgerton, You, The Queen’s Gambit, Lupin, and Tiger King, to name a few.\n“The company appears to operate in a virtuous cycle,” Pivotal Research analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak wrote. As the subscriber base grows—and average revenue per user rises as Netflix gradually boosts monthly fees—the more it can spend on original content. That expands the potential target market and reduces churn, bolsters its ability to boost prices, and improves its position.\nNetflix is adding new elements to its mix, too. The company’s nascent move into videogaming has the potential to shake up gaming in the same way it has driven dramatic change in the TV business. Most mobile games are either sold directly to consumers or supported by advertising and in-game purchases. Netflix intends to tack gaming on to its subscription plan at no extra cost, and without ads or other extra revenue sources.\nIt’s the Netflix model as its purest: find ways to drive more subscribers and keep them around.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":856091092,"gmtCreate":1635127481457,"gmtModify":1635127482797,"author":{"id":"3581505866102985","authorId":"3581505866102985","name":"skyel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4e416c9b1fabad56fbe0e086388d5b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581505866102985","authorIdStr":"3581505866102985"},"htmlText":"All thanks to Squid Game","listText":"All thanks to Squid Game","text":"All thanks to Squid Game","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856091092","repostId":1131198254,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":856099261,"gmtCreate":1635127389720,"gmtModify":1635127390173,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"htmlText":"comment","listText":"comment","text":"comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856099261","repostId":1131198254,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":47,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1131198254"}