14.6万美元？摩根大通又来疯狂“唱多”比特币了

华尔街见闻2021-01-05

摘要：在摩根大通看来，比特币短期可能有回调风险，但长期仍将上涨。鉴于黄金吸引到了价值2.7万亿美元的私人资金，比特币若想达到与此相当的体量，市值就需要扩增4.6倍。曾经被巴菲特比作“老鼠药”的比特币最近涨势如虹，市值曾一度飙升至6280亿美元，比伯克希尔还高出逾800亿美元，或许这会巴菲特也开始怀疑人生。在摩根大通Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou策略团队看来，比特币在过去几周的大幅...

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小脑斧大脸猫
2021-01-06
小脑斧大脸猫
大摩的话反着听稳赚不赔
韭菜小萌新
2021-01-06
韭菜小萌新
韭菜们上呀，摩大准备收购铁韭菜了。[贱笑]

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JPMorgan Chase: Bitcoin Has Potential for Further Significant","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a713b40b1df059d7f760df6cba858a97","symbols_score_info":{"01499":0.9,"01611":0.9,"CAN":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"NCTY":0.9},"content_text":"摘要：在摩根大通看来，比特币短期可能有回调风险，但长期仍将上涨。鉴于黄金吸引到了价值2.7万亿美元的私人资金，比特币若想达到与此相当的体量，市值就需要扩增4.6倍。曾经被巴菲特比作“老鼠药”的比特币最近涨势如虹，市值曾一度飙升至6280亿美元，比伯克希尔还高出逾800亿美元，或许这会巴菲特也开始怀疑人生。在摩根大通Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou策略团队看来，比特币在过去几周的大幅上涨，使得其定位和估值都面临更大挑战。另外，投机性多头头寸和持有少量比特币散户的增加可能使投机热潮进一步蔓延，将比特币价格推向50000-100000美元。不过虽然有短期的担忧，但长期来看，比特币在与黄金“抢钱\"，考虑到比特币作为黄金的“替代货币”，比特币还有进一步大幅增长的潜力。比特币市场要想比肩当前黄金市场中的私人投资体量2.7万亿美元，当前5750亿美元的市值是远远不够的，需要大幅扩增4.6倍，也就是说，单位价格要达到14.6万美元。而实现14.6万美元的长期目标并非一蹴而就，这取决于未来比特币的波动性。对大多数机构投资者来说，每个类别的波动性都会影响投资组合的风险管理，某资产类别的波动性越高，其风险越大。“看多\"比特币在第一次突破34000美元后，比特币在周一下跌多达17%，创下自3月以来最大跌幅。尽管如此，作为全球最大的加密货币，其价格在过去一年里已经翻了四倍。在两个月前承认自己预测比特币牛市终结是错误的之后，摩根大通成为比特币坚定的“看多”者。摩根大通Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou策略团队表示，“从黄金中挤出一种'替代'货币，从长远来看意味着比特币有很大的上涨空间。”比特币市场要想比肩当前黄金市场中的私人投资体量，当前5750亿美元的市值是远远不够的，需要大幅扩增4.6倍，也就是说，单位价格要达到14.6万美元。为什么是4.6倍？摩根大通表示，当前私人黄金财富大多是金条和金币，包括黄金etf在内，这些金条和金币的库存(不包括央行持有的金条和金币)总计42600吨，合计2.7万亿美元。就比特币的估值而言，策略师表示，此前用过两个指标，一是基于黄金的比较，二是根据采矿成本或内在价值。策略师称，Grayscale Bitcoin Trust对比特币的资金配置规模在其总投资组合中的占比高达87%，而对黄金的配置比例只有17%。也就是说，他们对比特币的投资资金规模是对黄金投资的5.1倍。而一般基金的这一比例大致在3.4倍到5.1倍之间，这意味着全球最大规模的比特币基金对比特币的平均风险资金配置与对黄金的配置之比接近4.6倍。也就是说，从风险资金的角度考虑，比特币在吸引除央行以外的私人投资上已经堪比黄金了。所以，摩根大通认为，当前“5万至10万美元价格是可持续的目标价区间”，这一市场一致预期其实是有风险的。自10月中旬以来，黄金ETF的资金流出超过70亿美元。在策略师看来，比特币能给黄金“施压”，源自千禧一代对比特币的兴趣加持，随着时间推移，年轻投资者群体将不可避免的成为投资者群体的主力军”。采矿成本或内在价值方面，比特币市场价格与其内在价值的比率再次达到2017年底的峰值，这不是说采矿成本正在驱动市场价值，或恰恰相反。然而，这并不意味着比特币价格会持续偏离其挖掘成本。与黄金类似，当比特币市场价格远高于生产成本时，挖掘活动和挖掘难度会增加，将生产成本推向市场价格，从而产生一定的收敛性。短期风险不容忽视因为波动性，比特币的长期目标需要一段时间。实际上，从Paul Tudor Jones到Scott Minerd和Stan Druckenmiller，更多的机构和著名的投资者已经开始将资金分配到比特币中，或者说愿意分配。有些投资者认为，加密货币可以对冲美元疲软。还有部分投资者认为，在充斥着财政和货币政策刺激的大环境下，加密货币还能应对通胀风险和泡沫。不过，比特币的短期风险仍不能忽视，投机性多头头寸和持有少量比特币散户的增加被摩根大通认为是比特币目前面临的最大不利因素，因为这些指标的增加或预示着比特币的潜在泡沫。下图为比特币每日激增的交易量：下图为日益增长的比特币账户数量：“虽然我们不能排除当前的投机热潮有进一步蔓延的可能，比特币价格将被推向50000-100000美元，但我们相信这样的价格水平是不可持续的。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":338525401,"gmtCreate":1609938167503,"gmtModify":1703741468006,"author":{"id":"3445299081957806","authorId":"3445299081957806","name":"小脑斧大脸猫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e97542318b2f9e8a414238619a1d72d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3445299081957806","authorIdStr":"3445299081957806"},"htmlText":"大摩的话反着听稳赚不赔","listText":"大摩的话反着听稳赚不赔","text":"大摩的话反着听稳赚不赔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338525401","repostId":1130683799,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":338517784,"gmtCreate":1609933380448,"gmtModify":1703741428069,"author":{"id":"3565866229126097","authorId":"3565866229126097","name":"韭菜小萌新","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/757150234f1e50e6d2ad5d4a78c6068d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3565866229126097","authorIdStr":"3565866229126097"},"htmlText":"韭菜们上呀，摩大准备收购铁韭菜了。[贱笑]&nbsp;","listText":"韭菜们上呀，摩大准备收购铁韭菜了。[贱笑]&nbsp;","text":"韭菜们上呀，摩大准备收购铁韭菜了。[贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338517784","repostId":1130683799,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1130683799"}