今年回报达60%的明星基金经理：美股将迎来“剧烈崩盘”

腾讯美股2020-07-28

盖伊德（Michael Gayed）强调，他真的不是要危言耸听，或者是吓唬投资者，但是他最新的那些说法确实足以让任何美股市场的玩家都不寒而栗。盖伊德的话语虽然是众多投资者都不愿意听到的，但是对于他的意见，任何人也不敢等闲视之。今年是这位基金经理人大出风头的一年。2月27日，他曾经明确宣布，预计标普500指数将发生两位数的下跌，而到了3月间，他又准确预言月底将发生融涨行情。能够做出如此精准的判断，也...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

心泪俱碎
2020-07-28
心泪俱碎
这些人就是传说中的美国汉奸。
Lane_
2020-07-28
Lane_
又不是美国垮台…怕啥，越跌越买！
- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
跟着队长一起走
2020-07-28
跟着队长一起走
股票也崩盘的话美国就真的完了，这是他们的最后一根稻草，反而A股不跟着涨的话，就得涨汇率！
- 跟着队长一起走:
  汇率一涨就吸引不到外资了！所以，国家肯定会选择稳汇率，涨股市！
一一回复
2020-07-28
一一回复
那我买的基金是不是应该卖了？
一一回复
2020-07-28
一一回复
那我买的基金现在就要卖了吗？
恒跌
2020-07-28
恒跌
谁你，你咋不90%崩盘呢

发表看法

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Report当中警告说，“疫情肆虐全球，尤其是在美国，抗疫防疫遭到惨重失败，日增病例数据不断打破纪录，与此同时，经济也在不断恶化，眼看就要到了逼着联储再来一轮货币政策干预的地步，但是股市却在持续复苏，面对前述一切，眼睛眨都不眨一下。”确实，正如盖伊德所指出的，2020年的行情极为独特，美股一度暴跌了超过30%以上，但是之后又从低位反弹了近50%之多，所有这一切都发生在短短不到八个月的时间当中。盖伊德曾经在3月底部将至时，极为敏锐地转向看多，但是近期以来，他发现，各种领先指标都在发出不祥的信号，说明股市很可能迎来“剧烈崩盘”。比如，债市指标十年期国债收益率盘旋在0.5%附近，而三十年期国债收益率则不足1.5%，盖伊德的判断是，这就为潜在的“回归均值”重大反转奠定了基础。“人们总说，债市投资者才是真正的‘聪明钱’，他们在判断经济活跃度的时候，总是要快股市投资者一步。”盖伊德解释道，“事实就是，收益率并未在短期之内大幅度窜升（现实恰好相反），这是一个非常麻烦的征兆，因为历史已经证明，像这样的短期行情之后，往往都跟着股市承受重大压力的周期。”盖伊德还补充说，历来被视为与衰退绝缘的安全投资避风港公用事业板块，其当下的表现也意味着大盘要遇到麻烦了。在下图当中，可以明确地看到这些防御性投资的表现在最近一个月时间当中是如何超越了大盘的。“对于股市投资者而言，这其实就是眼前亮起了红灯，单单这一点，其实就已经足够让我们提起警惕了。”他解释道，“事实上，今年的新冠疫情大崩盘前夜，也上演了类似的行情。”近期以来，正如行情所显示的，股市投资者似乎越来越志得意满，比如Robinhood上活跃的交易散户们就是最好的例子，而盖伊德强调，这也是一个必须严肃看待的麻烦。“在一个注定要发生经济大灾难的年头里，标普500指数年初至今的回报率却是个正数，纳指更是高歌猛进。似乎没有任何人想到市场还有下跌的可能性。”他在最近的研究报告中写道，“显而易见，人们都忘记了股市有风险，投资须谨慎这样的教导——现在，周遭的环境正在加速发生变化，看上去，风险很可能马上就要回到我们身边，而且是火力全开。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":946458430,"gmtCreate":1595950628220,"gmtModify":1704210415516,"author":{"id":"3535778335748585","authorId":"3535778335748585","name":"心泪俱碎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17bc5c234965a34b529679dff13bedb2","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"这些人就是传说中的美国汉奸。","listText":"这些人就是传说中的美国汉奸。","text":"这些人就是传说中的美国汉奸。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946458430","repostId":1130596441,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":946465781,"gmtCreate":1595947306143,"gmtModify":1704210393949,"author":{"id":"3496775990567496","authorId":"3496775990567496","name":"Lane_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f7e5fc4458d61fad8773343960cea32","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"又不是美国垮台…怕啥，越跌越买！","listText":"又不是美国垮台…怕啥，越跌越买！","text":"又不是美国垮台…怕啥，越跌越买！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946465781","repostId":1130596441,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":2691236,"gmtCreate":1595947338921,"gmtModify":1595947338921,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":946465781,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a 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