How To Invest In A Down Market

seekingalpha2021-03-09

Summary The Nasdaq is close to correction territory, about 10% down. Many high-quality businesses are seeing their stock down 20% to 50%. Market sell-offs are generally not a good time to sell or ...

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精彩评论

璇瑤
2021-03-09
璇瑤
Buy some of e dips... Lol
- TohKokMeng79:
  wait n buy... still drop la
phtan68
2021-03-09
phtan68
Buy $APPL
Chimmy
2021-03-09
Chimmy
Buy recovery stocks like oil, banks, commodities
Tan2heng
2021-03-09
Tan2heng
👍
- GgWimp:
  Gg
Francis1977
2021-03-09
Francis1977
Informative.
- GgWimp:
  Gggg
DanTEOHH
2021-03-09
DanTEOHH
Good

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow To Invest In A Down Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-09 17:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412294-how-to-invest-in-down-market><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Nasdaq is close to correction territory, about 10% down.\nMany high-quality businesses are seeing their stock down 20% to 50%.\nMarket sell-offs are generally not a good time to sell or ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412294-how-to-invest-in-down-market\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412294-how-to-invest-in-down-market","article_id":"1130239756","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130239756","pubTimestamp":1615282325,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nThe Nasdaq is close to correction territory, about 10% down.\nMany high-quality businesses a","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"如何在下跌的市场中投资","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Nasdaq is close to correction territory, about 10% down.\nMany high-quality businesses are seeing their stock down 20% to 50%.\nMarket sell-offs are generally not a good time to sell or rebalance.\nRecognize you are likely to make emotional decisions right now.\nLet's review the kind of investments you should be focusing on.\n\nImage Source: CNN Money\nThis week was the biggest market sell-off since, wait for it... September 2020.\nI know, six months ago is not really a big deal. In fact, market corrections (a market sell-off of 10% or more) happen more than once a year on average. And generally speaking, when people refer to \"the market,\" they are talking about the S&P 500 (SPY), not the Nasdaq (QQQ). From this perspective, the market has barely moved. The recent sell-off is predominantly affecting the Nasdaq with a rotation out of high-growth technology companies and into businesses that have taken a beating throughout the pandemic (live events, brick-and-mortar retailers, hotels or travel to name a few).\nData by YCharts\nMany analysts and so-called market pundits would want you to believe it's the end of the world. Looking at a few headlines over the years, my own anecdotal evidence here on Seeking Alpha is that some authors are simply perma-bears who will tell you that it's time to sell your stocks and hunker down every month of the year. When the market is hitting a new all time high, they say that valuations aren't sustainable and we are in a bubble. But when the market falls by 30% like it did in March 2020, they say that stocks have a lot more room to fall and you should still stay away.\nFor the pessimists, the right time to buy is almost never. Too bad for them, because they are missing out on one the most fantastic ways to create wealth over a lifetime. I'm talking about long-term investing in equities.\nGoing back to the sell-off at play today, many high-growth stocks are down 20% to 50% from their previous high. But it's essential to note that many of them are merely trading back to where they were a few weeks ago. Just look at Tesla (TSLA). The last time the stock was trading just below $600 was just three months ago, at the beginning of December.\nData by YCharts\nI've covered before the five ways to prepare for a stock market crash:\n\nAsk yourself how much drawdown you can cope with.\nMake sure you have the cash you need.\nBuild a portfolio that suits your risk profile.\nBuild a wish list of stocks to buy on sale.\nWrite down your strategy.\n\nIf you follow this approach when the market is chugging along, going through the volatility of the past few days becomes incredibly easier. I would even argue that it becomes an enjoyable process because you get to execute a well thought-out plan and benefit from your preparedness.\nMost investors are already familiar with what I would call \"Investing 101.\" Among the first lessons you learn when starting investing, you often hear what is critical to do when the market crashes:\n\nDon't panic.\nStay the course.\nFocus on the long term.\n\nThe problem with these lessons is that they can be a bit superficial. In theory, many investors understand they should not sell their holdings in a stock market crash and just let it pass. But in practice, there can be a strong temptation to tinker with a portfolio, re-balance aggressively at the worst possible time, or using the majority of your cash reserve too fast and miss great opportunities to invest if the market continues to fall.\nSo I want to go a bit deeper today, offer some perspective and share investing strategies you can choose from.\nUnderstanding Bull and Bear Markets\nThe market has historically gone up over time, with an average 10% annual return over the last 92 years for the SP&P 500 benchmark, and 74% of the years being positive.\nThe graph below, using Morningstar data, shows bull and bear markets since the late 20’s all the way to 2018.\n\nA Bull Market is measured from the lowest close reached after the market has fallen 20% or more to the next high.\nA Bear Market is defined as the index closing at least 20% down from its previous high close. Its duration is the period from the previous high to the lowest close reached after it has fallen 20% or more.\n\nSource: First Trust via Morningstar\nThere are two conclusions that should remain with you:\n\nThe stock market goes up much more than it goes down (several bull markets have lasted more than 10 years, at more than 17% average annualized return)\nWhen it goes down, it goes down fast and sharply (bear markets have lasted less than 3 years, from -22% to -83%)\n\nA bull market might seem like a steady path up and to the right, but volatility is present in all market conditions. Red days and moments of doubt are very common, even through bull markets. From 2009 to 2020, a period of fantastic market returns, you had to go through Brexit, trade wars and general elections, all prompting pundits of all kinds to predict an imminent market collapse.\nTrying to time the market is a waste of time: Nobody can predict it, and if you are out of the market, you are missing on the gains that the market is willing to give you over the years.\nAs pointed out before by Morgan Housel, partner at The Collaborative Fund, stock market crashes happen all the time. Recognizing how often market crashes happen can give you a better idea of what you are getting into and the risks you are taking when investing in equities.\nHere is the historical frequency of pullbacks identified since 1928:\n\nBased on historical data, frequent market sell-offs are the price of admission to the stock market. They happen often, and in an unpredictable way. But the market eventually resumes its path up and to the right, inexorably following GDP growth. If you decide to be out of the market, you are far more likely to be wrong than right, and even more so over long periods of time.\nUnderstanding Risk\nWhen you invest, you are taking not only a market risk but also several specific risks.\n\nMarket Risk: An individual stock is subject at least partially to the same volatility as the market. Think about boats moving up and down with the tide.\nSector Risk:If the entire tech sector takes a beating, like in the early 2000s, even the stocks of solid companies like Microsoft (MSFT) can go down. Companies from the same sector tend to move in tandem, as illustrated by the recent pull-back.\nCompany Risk:The most obvious one. If a company’s business slows down or fails to deliver on expectation, or even files for bankruptcy.\n\nWhen you decide to invest in equities, you already have made the decision to embrace market risk. The best you can do is to recognize it for what it is and let it work its magic both on the way up and on the way down.\nIf you are exposed to a specific sector or category such as Enterprise Software, it should not surprise you to see excellent companies such as CrowdStrike (CRWD), Twilio (TWLO) or Zoom Video (ZM) fall together in the past few days. Your willingness to see a large part of your portfolio underperform for an extended time should educate the level of concentration you are willing to take in a given company or a given sector.\nSome perspective\nThe most powerful way to keep emotions in check in a market sell-off is to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.\nI want to provide readers with a look at my own portfolio drawdown. My real-money portfolio is highly volatile, mostly because it's heavy in the Technology, Communication and Discretionary sectors. I have enjoyed a significant market beating performance over the years, with my portfolio returning +395% since 2015 - even factoring the recent sell-off.\nDuring market sell-offs, my portfolio tends to take a deeper dive, which I'm perfectly fine with because volatility works both ways, and I'm willing to go through the emotional roller-coaster in order to achieve an above-average performance. This strategy is not for everyone, and it works for me only because I'm very patient and invest for the next five, 10, 15, 20 years and beyond. I identify a market sell-off as an opportunity to buy. If that's not your natural tendency, you are probably better off investing in index funds automatically and let someone re-balance it for you.\nMy real-money portfolio has taken a big hit over the last few days. My investments in companies like Teladoc (TDOC), Fastly (FSLY) or Zillow (Z) are down more than 30% since mid-February. Huge winners of the App Economy Portfolio like Shopify (SHOP) or The Trade Desk (TTD) (both 11-baggers as of this writing) are down more than 25% from their all-time-high.\nBut instead of focusing on the past week, or even the past month, I like to look at my portfolio performance over the years to keep things in perspective. As illustrated below, I might be down significantly over the past week, but it should only be observed in the grand scheme of things. My own strategy has enabled me to more than quadruple the S&P 500 performance since 2015. How many times has my portfolio dropped 10% in a few days, only to eventually rebound to new highs? Measuring my own performance and keeping score has helped me stick to my own strategy.\nSource: App Economy Portfolio performance from Personal Capital\nIt's also interesting to look back at the previous large market drawdowns that occurred in late 2018 or in March 2020, clearly visible on the chart. When I look back at my trades during these sell-offs, I see multi-bagger returns across the board. This illustrates why sticking to your strategy during market drawdowns can be extremely lucrative.\nFocus on quality businesses that rarely sell-off\nWarren Buffettwiselyrecommends to \"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.\"\nI wrote previously aboutfear and greedand how most investors have it all wrong. Even if you are buying during a market sell-off, you might be doing it wrong.\n\nAre you investing in quality companies or simply chasing bargains?\nAre you buying something because it is \"dirt cheap\" or seizing the opportunity to accumulate quality stocks at a lower price?\n\nThe main reason you should be looking for quality rather than sheer value in the context of a market sell-off is that you are already benefiting from a market discount. That discount is offered usually across all types of investments, making some of the best companies more affordable.\nMarket and sector sell-offs are a unique opportunity to finally get a discount on the businesses that keep hitting new all-time-highs and running away from you. I believe that's where your focus should be.\nOf course, the skeptics will continue to say that the high-growth stocks remain extremely over-priced by historical standards. They predict that the next shoe is about to drop, even in the face of a market correction. This mindset has kept many investors away from FAANG stocks (Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Alphabet (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)) in the past decade.\nPredicting an imminent crash? Isn't this the very symptom of fear?\nBuilding up positions in your winners is a powerful investment philosophy and one that makes even more sense in the context of a market downturn. I covered the art ofadding to your winnerspreviously when I explained why I was adding to my position in MongoDB (MDB).\n\nThese great businesses that sit at the top of your portfolio are the very same as they were before any sector rotation, and they will still be the same after the storm passes. In the short term, a stock performance can be detached from the underlying business, both in up and down markets.\nSource: CNBC\nCash deployment strategy\nNow, assuming you understand the importance of maintaining an optimistic outlook in the face of a market sell-off and are ready for some shopping to take advantage of depressed valuations, we still need to talk about cash deployment strategies.\nMaybe you have cash on the sidelines and you are wondering when or how to put it to use. Many investors make the mistake of going all-in at the first sight of a market pull-back of a few percentage points, only to feel buyer's remorse when the market continues to fall.\nI love this blog postfrom Morgan Housel covering his cash deployment strategy in the context of a market drawdown. He shows in this graph how much of his cash set aside for investing he would deploy in the market based on how much the market has sold off.\n\nSince the S&P 500 is generally used as a proxy for \"the market,\" we still have a long way to go before we hit even the 10% mark. I tend to look at how much my own portfolio has fallen from its previous high as an indicator of the opportunity at play. For example, the App Economy Portfolio is down about 17% from its previous high as of this writing. Using the chart above, it would indicate that now is a good time to deploy around 32% of the cash available to invest.\nWhichever indicator you choose (the S&P, the Nasdaq, your own portfolio draw-down), this is an interesting way to look at cash deployment that can help your investing strategy and avoid running out of dry powder too fast.\nThe Art of Doing Nothing\nBecause emotions run high after a series of red days, the best course of action is often to sit on your hands. That's right, doing nothing at all.\nAs a marketplace leader, I get questions every day about portfolio re-balancing, usually taking the form of a desire to chase returns. Many investors decide they want to reallocate a large part of a portfolio based on what seems right to do in the heat of the moment.\nThe reality is that no portfolio re-balancing should happen in a hurry or be prompted by events that have nothing to do with your long-term strategy. That's why journaling and writing down your investing strategy can be so powerful. It can guide you and put you back on track when you feel compelled to break it all apart.\nRecognizing that there is no urgency to act is essential. As I pointed out in many articles, if your next trade cannot wait for a few days, you are likely making an emotional decision. A great investment should not depend on perfect timing or finding the exact bottom.\nThe Grind\nWe all want to get our accounts to new all-time highs.\nWe do it by saving and investing.\nIt's a given that there are setbacks to the market on the way to new highs. Whenever a new sell-off occurs, we are all back in the grind trying to get our account back to all-time highs.\nThe truth is that everybody has to go through the grind. You should not rely on an overnight success, because there is no such thing. Even Warren Buffett's portfolio is down this week. Think about it.\nA sell-off is naturally shaking out the weak hands and the most emotional investors among us. Make no mistake: The grind and your capacity to go through it all is part of what makes you a great investor.\nConclusion\nInvesting in a down market is a unique opportunity to invest for the long term. The key is to give yourself the best chance to stay cool and make the best decisions:\n\nUnderstand what bull and bear markets really are.\nEvaluate the risks you are taking and why you are taking them.\nIdentify and recognize your emotions and keep them in check.\nIf you want to sell or re-balance yourportfolio: Ask yourself if your investment thesis has really changed, or whether you're simply reacting to the news cycle.\nIf you want to buy: Ask yourself if you are merely chasing a bargain, or if you truly want to invest in a quality company for the long run.\nPrioritize the businesses that rarely offer a discount.\nLook at the big picture: Sell-offs are part of the grind, and we'll all come out stronger on the other side.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":323910255,"gmtCreate":1615298060777,"gmtModify":1703486932618,"author":{"id":"3576793170997774","authorId":"3576793170997774","name":"璇瑤","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6835feab4172932a5b89786a7d2beb9a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576793170997774","authorIdStr":"3576793170997774"},"htmlText":"Buy some of e dips... Lol","listText":"Buy some of e dips... Lol","text":"Buy some of e dips... Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323910255","repostId":1130239756,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3752278,"gmtCreate":1615298119675,"gmtModify":1635756836664,"authorId":3574312720176101,"author":{"id":3574312720176101,"idStr":"3574312720176101","authorId":3574312720176101,"name":"TohKokMeng79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09aad76a158a443465cacafe0bebb97","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":323910255,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"wait n buy... still drop <u>la</u>","text":"wait n buy... still drop <u>la</u>","html":"wait n buy... still drop 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