Central Bankers Are Right: This Is Not Your Father’s Inflation

Barron's2021-09-06

Central bankers keep shrugging off the current spike in inflation as a temporary phenomenon, and they have some good reasons to do so. A weak jobs report in the U.S. last week has cooled off talks ...

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LPN
2021-09-07
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Smurfblue
2021-09-06
Smurfblue
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- MonaMaMa:
  cool
THB
2021-09-06
THB
l[Cool]
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2021-09-06
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2021-09-06
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And beyond that, it will keep buying bonds under the regular asset-purchase program it launched in 2014 to help it meet its inflation target.\nThe debate about tapering has never been about whether or not it will happen — it will, and it should, since central banks must shrink their massive balance sheets if they want to be able to meet future major crises with the type of efficiency they demonstrated when faced with the coronavirus pandemic. The immediate question is rather whether or not they should speed up the phasing out of quantitative easing because of the supposed return of inflation.\nA string of surveys of business managers released last week showed that inflation isn’t only due to oil prices catching up after historic lows last year, or some goods becoming more expensive because consumers are finally spending the money they were forced to save during the many lockdowns of the past 18 months.\nCost inflation is now putting pressure on businesses, and they in turn have to choose whether they pass it on to their customers, or compress their margins by putting a priority on preserving market shares.\nA slow spread of inflation throughout the economy could then contribute to make it more pervasive, and push price expectations for the future even higher among both businesses and consumers, who might in turn seek higher wages.\nBut is that a credible threat? Catherine Mann, the former Citibank chief economist who is now a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, cautioned Monday that we should not look at the current inflation through the eyes of the traumatized generation that endured the double-digit inflation of the 1970s.\nToday is different, Mann explained, in part because wages and prices were more closely indexed to each other back then, and because labor markets and wages were more tightly interrelated.\nFurthermore, she added, companies today are more reluctant to pass on cost inflation to their customers and clients.\nBut how long will businesses hold? Europe and the U.S. may diverge here. 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