Favorable Outlook For GM

Seeking Alpha2021-10-08

Summary GM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts. The Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later. The market-implied outlook (...

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精彩评论

Nebhol
2021-10-08
Nebhol
Like comment
Timevestor
2021-10-08
Timevestor
Good
- Nebhol:
  Like
Shawnn_13
2021-10-08
Shawnn_13
lol
- Shawnn_13:
  thx
Boink
2021-10-08
Boink
Legacy automaker 😂
egg3030
2021-10-08
egg3030
But what about the larger infrastructure issues
JerryChiang
2021-10-08
JerryChiang
GM need to pick up on the EV segment

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The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is 8.8, as compared to TSLA’s 144.8.\nIntriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst consensus price target for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.\nWhen I last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&P 500.\nPerformance of GM vs. the S&P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nUsing options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.\nIt is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the massive recall of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of charred Chevy Bolts.\nGM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.\nWall Street Consensus Outlook for GM\nETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which reduces confidence in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)\nSeeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThe good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.\nMarket-Implied Outlook for GM\nI have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.\nThe standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThe market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.\nTo make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThis view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).\nTheory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.\nThe market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nContrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my previous analysis in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.\nSummary\nGM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.\nThe projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.\nTaking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":821035042,"gmtCreate":1633671960596,"gmtModify":1633671961247,"author":{"id":"3567411499210880","authorId":"3567411499210880","name":"Nebhol","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0bfc2a45b91e41a283614268857b3a5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567411499210880","authorIdStr":"3567411499210880"},"htmlText":"Like comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like comment&nbsp;","text":"Like comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821035042","repostId":1128736762,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821094896,"gmtCreate":1633671018981,"gmtModify":1633671019243,"author":{"id":"4087996122770160","authorId":"4087996122770160","name":"Timevestor","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087996122770160","authorIdStr":"4087996122770160"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821094896","repostId":1128736762,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6130783,"gmtCreate":1633671967336,"gmtModify":1634718773484,"authorId":3567411499210880,"author":{"id":3567411499210880,"idStr":"3567411499210880","authorId":3567411499210880,"name":"Nebhol","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0bfc2a45b91e41a283614268857b3a5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821094896,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821002037,"gmtCreate":1633669602422,"gmtModify":1633669602510,"author":{"id":"3584845105860173","authorId":"3584845105860173","name":"Shawnn_13","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584845105860173","authorIdStr":"3584845105860173"},"htmlText":"lol","listText":"lol","text":"lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821002037","repostId":1128736762,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6133223,"gmtCreate":1633695814551,"gmtModify":1634718595571,"authorId":3584845105860173,"author":{"id":3584845105860173,"idStr":"3584845105860173","authorId":3584845105860173,"name":"Shawnn_13","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821002037,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"thx","text":"thx","html":"thx"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821000597,"gmtCreate":1633668859516,"gmtModify":1633668859947,"author":{"id":"3584620238111631","authorId":"3584620238111631","name":"Boink","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c209643e8a7d239ba24db30470811841","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584620238111631","authorIdStr":"3584620238111631"},"htmlText":"Legacy automaker 😂","listText":"Legacy automaker 😂","text":"Legacy automaker 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821000597","repostId":1128736762,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":823726744,"gmtCreate":1633664276280,"gmtModify":1633664276541,"author":{"id":"4090160645832330","authorId":"4090160645832330","name":"egg3030","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba6ef8bd45b7f1dc2dc78586fe68f1c","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090160645832330","authorIdStr":"4090160645832330"},"htmlText":"But what about the larger infrastructure issues","listText":"But what about the larger infrastructure issues","text":"But what about the larger infrastructure issues","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823726744","repostId":1128736762,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":823728900,"gmtCreate":1633664139145,"gmtModify":1633664139584,"author":{"id":"3576907825888639","authorId":"3576907825888639","name":"JerryChiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537811c4027e5f1664a45ab303892cb1","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576907825888639","authorIdStr":"3576907825888639"},"htmlText":"GM need to pick up on the EV segment&nbsp;","listText":"GM need to pick up on the EV segment&nbsp;","text":"GM need to pick up on the EV segment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823728900","repostId":1128736762,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":66,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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