Where Will NIO Stock Be In 5 Years?

seekingalpha2021-06-02

Summary NIO is a high-growth Chinese EV player with attractive products. Its BaaS technology provides a USP that should help NIO gain market share in the coming years. NIO is trading at a high ...

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精彩评论

Maximus88
2021-06-03
Maximus88
Wooohoo
TaiWoeiHaur
2021-06-03
TaiWoeiHaur
Like and comment pls
Eaglewings
2021-06-03
Eaglewings
The main hundle for them is the pace of production, similar to Tesla in their early days. And it will pass, valuation metrics will evolve
Bodoh
2021-06-03
Bodoh
NIO stock will be way beyond the moon
- 3fbe1ed8:
  To the moon 🚀
allycat
2021-06-03
allycat
Very promising
- Bodoh:
  Yup
kenong62
2021-06-03
kenong62
Please comment n like
- CookieMon12:
  Yeah!
- Synie:
  done
- kenong62:
  thanks
- kenong62:
  thanks

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Investors may have to be patient to see the growth story play out.\n\nPhoto by Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO (NIO) is a high-growth EV pure-play with unique offerings such as battery-as-a-service. The company enjoys growth tailwinds in its home market China and will increase its presence in overseas markets dramatically in the coming years. NIO is not as expensive as some other EV stocks, but shares are, on the other hand, still trading at a steep premium compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. Overall, NIO could return significant amounts of money in the coming years, but that is not a certainty, and investors should keep an eye on NIO's risk factors.\nNIO Stock Price\nNIO, Inc. is one of China's leading EV pure-plays, and that is reflected in its current valuation:\nData by YCharts\nAt slightly below $40, NIO is valued at more than $60 billion right now. This is about 40% less than the valuation shares have traded at when they peaked in early 2021, which reflects the declining enthusiasm for EV stocks, as most of NIO's peers, including Tesla (TSLA), have seen their shares come back as well. Still, for reference, NIO is valued around the same level as Ford (F) - which is a way larger company for now, in terms of revenue and vehicle sales.\nIs NIO A Good Long-Term Stock?\nNIO is active in the high-growth EV market and thus benefits a lot from market growth tailwinds. On top of that, NIO also has an attractive product portfolio that includes well-received models such as the ES6 and ES8 SUVs. What differentiates NIO from most other EV companies is its battery-swapping technology that allows consumers to get a fully-charged battery in a couple of minutes when visiting one of NIO's battery-swapping stations.\nThis means that the downtime when doing longer trips via an EV is reduced dramatically, as a battery-swap takes roughly as much time as refueling an ICE-powered car, whereas recharging most EVs takes well more than a couple of minutes. NIO's battery-swapping stations are being built out around China right now, although there is no meaningful footprint outside of NIO's home market yet.\nStill, NIO plans to roll out that service in international markets over the years, and once there is a large enough footprint of them to make a difference, this should be a unique selling point for NIO that will help differentiate its offerings from those of most peers. This could, I believe, result in further market share gains, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see NIO grow at a rapid pace for the coming years.\nFor 2021, NIO will likely deliver revenue growth of more than 100% on the back of strong deliveries growth, as the analyst community is currently forecasting a 130% revenue increase this year. For Q2, NIO is expecting a growth rate of around 110% for its deliveries, following a massive 480% revenue increase during the first quarter. NIO thus is growing quicker than the EV market as a whole, and also quicker than peers such as Tesla, which will grow by around 50%-60% this year, according to the analyst community, which is about half the growth rate that is expected for NIO this year.\nMaintaining 100%+ growth forever is, of course, not possible, and NIO's growth will decline from that level in the coming years. But due to the fact that its products are well-liked in its home market, while the company is also ambitiously planning a major entry into the large European EV market, NIO should still deliver very considerable growth in the coming years.\nObvious growth tailwinds for a company, or even an industry, do not necessarily equate to massive share price upside, however. Investors should consider that NIO will, like all auto companies, be active in a cyclical, capital-intense industry where margins, on average, are not very high. This doesn't mean that NIO does not have long-term upside, but investors should keep in mind that a home run is not guaranteed when investing in NIO or other EV stocks - despite the fact that EV sales are growing quickly.\nNIO Stock Forecast In 5 Years\nNIO will grow its revenues by more than 100% this year, according to most estimates, but growth projections beyond that point are varying a lot more. Looking at 2022, for example, the analyst consensus for NIO's revenues is $8.7 billion, which would reflect a 78% increase versus the consensus for 2021. Estimates are in a wide range, however, as analyst estimates range from $7.3 billion to $11.9 billion in revenue in 2022.\nIn other words, the most bullish estimates see NIO deliver 60% higher revenues than the most bearish estimates. Since these estimates are being made for 2022 - just one year from now - this wide discrepancy shows how hard it is to forecast exact revenue or earnings numbers for a company like NIO.\nFor my estimate for 2025's revenues, I'll go with the analyst consensus for 2022, i.e. $8.7 billion, and then assume that revenues will grow at 1.5x the forecasted overall market growth rate of 27% in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026. This would get us to $34 billion in revenue in 2026, i.e. five years from now. Since analysts are currently forecasting that revenue will grow by 110% this year, and by around 80% next year, some readers may argue that a 40% growth rate estimate for 2023-2026 is too conservative. But the major unknowns and uncertainties around competitive pressures, government policies, etc., mean that I think that projecting a higher growth rate for many years in advance might be too optimistic.\nWhat might a $34 billion top line mean for NIO's stock price? Right now, shares are valued at 11.6x this year's expected sales, which is almost perfectly in line with the valuation of XPeng (XPEV), and slightly lower than that of Tesla:\nData by YCharts\nLooking at 2022, we see that shares are valued at around 7x expected revenues right now, whereas XPeng and Tesla trade at 6x and 9x their expected revenues right now. I highly doubt that the average EV company will be trading at high single-digit or even double-digit sales multiples in 2026, as this is just too much of a difference versus the 0.5-2x revenue multiples that legacy auto companies usually trade at. But when we assume that NIO, as an EV pure-play, will still trade at a premium to legacy auto in the middle of the 2020s, a 3x or 4x sales multiple might be a realistic estimate.\nWhen we go with 3.5x our revenue forecast for 2026, that would equate to a market capitalization of 119 billion - about 90% more than NIO's current market capitalization. NIO's share count has not been constant, however, and has, in fact, been rising considerably in the past. When we assume that the share count will rise by another 20% through 2026, to 1.9 billion, then shares would trade at $61 in 2026. This would mean that shares have an upside potential of around 55% over the next five years, or about 9% annually.\nThat is not at all unattractive, but it also isn't an absolutely outstanding return. On top of that, NIO, like many other EV startups, is a company with above-average volatility, above-average risks, and above-average uncertainties. I thus would not call NIO overly attractive at current prices, as the forecasted return is solid, but goes hand in hand with considerable risks/uncertainties. One can, of course, argue that the forecasted growth is too high, or too low, or that the target sales multiple should be different in 2026. As a base case scenario, I feel like this is reasonable, however.\nIs NIO Stock A Buy Now?\nIn retrospect, it is pretty clear that NIO at $10 about a year ago was a great opportunity, and that buying NIO at $67 at the peak earlier this year was a pretty bad decision. NIO today, in the high $30s, is somewhere in between these two extremes. I believe that, for long-term investors, NIO has a good chance of delivering solid returns over the years. At the same time, however, a lot of growth is priced into the stock right now, and it is not possible to forecast what competitors will do over the coming years, how accommodating governments will be to EVs, how well the rollout in Europe and other international markets will go, etc.\nI think NIO is more attractive than many other EV companies today, including many of the EV startups that don't have any viable products yet, and also versus Tesla (which is growing slower and still trades at a higher valuation). I would not be surprised to see NIO's stock deliver solid returns during the 2020s. I don't think that NIO is an absolute no-brainer buy today, however, as NIO still trades at a quite high valuation, for now, even factoring in its strong growth.\nFor those that are enterprising and do not mind the risks and uncertainties around future product launches and international expansion, the stock's volatility, and so on, NIO could be a buy today. But it is not a good choice for everyone, and some may want to watch the EV race from the sidelines instead of putting money at risk at current valuations.\nThe current analyst consensus share price target is $59, but I personally do not think this is realistic in the very near term. Based on expected revenues for 2021, this would put NIO at an 18x sales multiple, which is, I believe, not justified. Over the next five years, however, a share price in that region seems achievable, I believe.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":118894485,"gmtCreate":1622727277447,"gmtModify":1634098701022,"author":{"id":"3580265488164620","authorId":"3580265488164620","authorIdStr":"3580265488164620","name":"Maximus88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86d19effbbdd9cc5898210cf7c326349","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580265488164620"},"htmlText":"Wooohoo","listText":"Wooohoo","text":"Wooohoo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118894485","repostId":1128017388,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":118115149,"gmtCreate":1622723240381,"gmtModify":1634098756363,"author":{"id":"3563667765668803","authorId":"3563667765668803","authorIdStr":"3563667765668803","name":"TaiWoeiHaur","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aa233d5ea38c3d04355d0d183645c4e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563667765668803"},"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118115149","repostId":1128017388,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":111740937,"gmtCreate":1622703037029,"gmtModify":1634098974915,"author":{"id":"3574484198588936","authorId":"3574484198588936","authorIdStr":"3574484198588936","name":"Eaglewings","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/532f4e45cb093f21d9a38905184a4bb9","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574484198588936"},"htmlText":"The main hundle&nbsp;for them is the pace of production, similar to Tesla in their early days. And it will pass, valuation metrics will evolve&nbsp;","listText":"The main hundle&nbsp;for them is the pace of production, similar to Tesla in their early days. And it will pass, valuation metrics will evolve&nbsp;","text":"The main hundle for them is the pace of production, similar to Tesla in their early days. And it will pass, valuation metrics will evolve","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111740937","repostId":1128017388,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":111725494,"gmtCreate":1622701966318,"gmtModify":1634098983606,"author":{"id":"3559859558754319","authorId":"3559859558754319","authorIdStr":"3559859558754319","name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559859558754319"},"htmlText":"NIO stock will be way beyond the moon","listText":"NIO stock will be way beyond the moon","text":"NIO stock will be way beyond the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111725494","repostId":1128017388,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4560699,"gmtCreate":1622710862279,"gmtModify":1635338764402,"authorId":3575451051162247,"author":{"id":3575451051162247,"authorId":3575451051162247,"name":"3fbe1ed8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":111725494,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"To the moon 🚀","text":"To the moon 🚀","html":"To the moon 🚀"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":111700800,"gmtCreate":1622696285500,"gmtModify":1634099034064,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575286791359007"},"htmlText":"Very promising&nbsp;","listText":"Very promising&nbsp;","text":"Very promising","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111700800","repostId":1128017388,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4559288,"gmtCreate":1622701980949,"gmtModify":1635390236214,"authorId":3559859558754319,"author":{"id":3559859558754319,"authorId":3559859558754319,"name":"Bodoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349218ea2852130ca86ce660b4aa2d59","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":111700800,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yup","text":"Yup","html":"Yup"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":111520242,"gmtCreate":1622687339886,"gmtModify":1634099129877,"author":{"id":"3574928367638029","authorId":"3574928367638029","authorIdStr":"3574928367638029","name":"kenong62","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fd00bd8cea11b8aa1aed6d9ddd9413","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574928367638029"},"htmlText":"Please comment n like","listText":"Please comment n like","text":"Please comment n like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111520242","repostId":1128017388,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4557010,"gmtCreate":1622690351866,"gmtModify":1635390428811,"authorId":3581997496673642,"author":{"id":3581997496673642,"authorId":3581997496673642,"name":"CookieMon12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d412f1a182e016f0fe66376d12556dee","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":111520242,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yeah!","text":"Yeah!","html":"Yeah!"},{"id":4571892,"gmtCreate":1622769000250,"gmtModify":1635337845519,"authorId":3580902926728517,"author":{"id":3580902926728517,"authorId":3580902926728517,"name":"Synie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0bc4a9b6654539c7ca6cab183ca990","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":111520242,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done","text":"done","html":"done"},{"id":4573981,"gmtCreate":1622776200811,"gmtModify":1635337638077,"authorId":3574928367638029,"author":{"id":3574928367638029,"authorId":3574928367638029,"name":"kenong62","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fd00bd8cea11b8aa1aed6d9ddd9413","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":111520242,"type":1,"supId":4571892,"prevId":0,"content":"thanks","text":"thanks","html":"thanks"},{"id":4573985,"gmtCreate":1622776211301,"gmtModify":1635337637583,"authorId":3574928367638029,"author":{"id":3574928367638029,"authorId":3574928367638029,"name":"kenong62","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fd00bd8cea11b8aa1aed6d9ddd9413","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":111520242,"type":1,"supId":4557010,"prevId":0,"content":"thanks","text":"thanks","html":"thanks"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":192,"commentSize":92,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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