Tesla Lands A Massive Deal And Breaks $1 Trillion: Are Shares A Buy?

Seeking Alpha2021-10-28

Summary Tesla added nearly $200 billion to its valuation this week following good earnings and an ~$4.2 billion deal for 100K vehicles from Hertz. The current growth trajectory and projected long-...

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精彩评论

HENGJR
2021-10-28
HENGJR
help like
Bodoh
2021-10-28
Bodoh
Right
- 滚股怪:
  Like
- HENGJR:
  help like
JunHaoT
2021-10-28
JunHaoT
Still abuy
StLiaS
2021-10-28
StLiaS
like
cd1212
2021-10-28
cd1212
Like and comment pls
- JunHaoT:
  Good

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Tesla continues to grow rapidly even at its size, with deliveries rising ~20% q/q to 241,300 units for Q3. Tesla is offering very attractive growth rates at a scale much larger than EV peers, and as such is one of the hottest names on Wall Street. Trading volumes breached 60 million, more than double Tesla's 10-day average, with dollar volume over $60 billion. Although a substantial portion of these could be quick trades to capitalize on a >12% move on the day, Tesla has been a gift that keeps on giving, and ultimately, it's possible to get stuck buying at a short-term top, much like in January. Even with a multi-quarter string of revenue and delivery boosts from the deal, the risk-reward outlook to buying at the moment is not highly convincing - while it's not necessarily a good idea to bet against Tesla, it does not seem to be the best time to buy.\nA Hertz Fleet Deal\nThe Hertz deal shows that the demand for large-volume fleet EV exists, with the rental car operator putting in an order worth over 20% of its fleet size for Tesla's vehicles. With the order, Hertz will offer the largest EV in the country.\nGraphic from Hertz\nHertz is jumping behind \"rising global demand and interest\" for EV as the vehicles become more \"mainstream,\" choosing to invest $4.2 billion for Tesla vehicles over the next fourteen months, with the first deliveries and availabilities expected to commence in November.\nBecause EV rely on public charging infrastructure, which can be limited or harder to find than gas stations, Hertz will be \"installing thousands of chargers throughout its location network,\" adding to the 3,000 supercharging network available via Tesla. In addition, Hertz's app will provide \"digitized guidance to educate customers about the electric vehicle to get them on their way quickly, and coming soon, an expedited EV rental booking process.\" Customers booking vehicles will have to know how to use certain features like Autopilot, FSD or controlling the car through the app.\nHertz did recently emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy earlier this summer, and while some questions are raised about the exact funding for a deal of this size will come from given $3.0 billion in total liquidity, operating metrics have improved dramatically and rival 2019's pre-pandemic levels. Although revenues were ~11% lower than 2019, vehicle utilization sat at 78%, 3 percentage points behind as RPD and RPU increased significantly as prices rose. Compared to 2019 for Q2, Hertz saw RPD 53% higher to above $65 and RPU per month 48% higher to $1,557 - more expensive pricing of rental cars due to high demand and insufficient supply did aid these metrics, yet utilization rates reflect a strong rebound in the industry.\nFor Tesla, the deal with Hertz not only signifies a large bump to revenues and deliveries through fiscal 2022 but a broader trend towards large-scale fleet acceptance in ride renting/sharing/hailing. 100,000 units represent close to 12% of Tesla's current TTM volume and about 7% of projected deliveries and revenues for FY22. It's a substantial contribution from a single customer, but it provides a bright outlook into the future of EV in ride hailing/renting - the adoption curve could come quicker than anticipated.\nIn the broader industry, Uber (UBER) is working with multiple different players, including Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF), Arrival (ARVL) and TotalEnergies (TTE) to accelerate EV adoption while Waymo (GOOGL) and Cruise (GM) are working towards self-driving robotaxi services, which still could be years away from large-scale operations. EV can fill parts of that void, with Tesla having the necessary capacity to produce hundreds of thousands of units for fleet operators with GF Shanghai, Berlin and Texas all ramping to scale and building new capacity.\nContinuing Along the Growth Trajectory\nTesla's Q3 results speak for themselves, with the company firing on all cylinders as performance metrics across the board reached new highs.\nThe company saw its \"best-ever net income, operating profit and gross profit,\" with operating margins higher than expected, operating cash flow reaching a record, its highest production levels at Fremont, and strong growth in multiple metrics. Auto revenues rose 58% y/y and 18% q/q, slightly lagging deliveries' ~20% q/q growth as ASPs slipped 6% y/y. Higher contribution from China likely was a large factor in the ASP decline, as well as in the uptick in deliveries, with the region reportedly accounting for 133,238 vehicles during the quarter, or 55.2%; this came in higher than predicted as ASPs trended lower. That figure is 6.3 percentage points higher than Q2, with September's ~56,000 units delivered and exported a whopping 70% higher than June.\nGraphic from Tesla\nDeliveries have started to hit a hyper-growth trajectory over the trailing four quarters, with growth emerging in Q3 2020. Since then, Tesla has nearly doubled deliveries, a much faster rate than pre-pandemic growth as EV adoption and capacity increases. At the moment, Tesla's annual capacity is close to 1.1 million, or nearly 40% higher than TTM deliveries, giving the company much more room to grow ahead of completion in Berlin and Texas.\nHard To Buy Here\nEven with growth rates and operating metrics impressing across the board, it's hard to chalk out a positive risk-reward outlook after shares ran higher this week - the earnings and $4.2 billion Hertz deal added at one point nearly $200 billion to Tesla's valuation, or close to $175 billion at the high in just the two days since the deal was announced. Are the new synergies from the deal and/or earnings good enough to support buying a company worth over 15% more following that announcement? Here, that does not look to be the case.\nOver the short-term, such frenzied trading and rapid, high percentage rallies are typically very short-lived - Tesla's last pre-split rally to $900 in early 2020 saw the stock shed 20% in under a week, and a strong rally to nearly $900 post-split in early 2021 saw shares hold for a month after a 10% drop before shedding another 35% through March. Short-term trades can pay off, but from a long-term standpoint, the outlook is bright, but the return potential, not as much.\nTesla projects that it can drive long-term average annual growth of 50% in deliveries, which, from 900,000 deliveries possible for FY21, would see Tesla doing about 4.5 million vehicles per year in 2025. Extending that growth rate further to 2030 would see Tesla delivering 34 million vehicles, or half of global automotive volumes from 2020; this seems to be a very unrealistic scenario, even as Tesla stated that the goal is to have 20 million deliveries by then. To reach that figure, Tesla would have to grow at about 35% annual from 2025's projected figure. All in all, 2025's deliveries could be close to 5% of total global automotive sales volumes while 2030's could be near 20%. Given the competition in the industry, it's hard to see Tesla driving that much market share alone and beating out competition by that far of a margin - even Apple (AAPL) only commands near 15% market share in smartphones, where it's widely seen among the top three in the industry.\nWith that forecast, Tesla is also seeing a path to $400 billion in revenues - this would assume that revenue growth slows much faster y/y than deliveries - driving deliveries to 20 million requires 5 years of ~33% average annual growth following 4 years of 50% annual growth while revenues would grow for 5 years at ~20% average annual growth for 5 years following 4 years of 34% average annual growth.\nTo hit both of those figures, revenues at $400 billion on deliveries of 20 million, Tesla would have to cut its ASPs significantly, down to $25,000 by 2027 and ~$16,500 by 2029, assuming growth rates in energy storage and other aspects of the business continue. Tesla does envision itself in most major spaces - small/mid/large SUV, sedan/trucks, as well as in affordable <$25,000 models and robotaxis; however, those most likely wouldn't amount to a sub $20,000 ASP, meaning that there are some substantial doubts raised about the feasibility of both targets occurring mutually by 2030. The other possibility that is not included here is that Tesla does not sell a robotaxi fleet but rather manages a multi-million unit fleet itself, therefore having a fair proportion of targeted 2030 volumes not reflected in ASPs.\nShould Tesla be overshooting the delivery figures, revenues are likely very misguided; but should Tesla in fact be correct in targeting 20 million vehicles through multiple market opportunities, revenues could be completely sandbagging that potential. Time will tell in this regard.\nBack to market share - Tesla would likely be seeing around the high-teens to 20% of global automotive volumes by 2030 based ontrendswithin the industry. Yet it's hard to see Tesla achieving and maintaining such a stronghold as startups like XPeng (XPEV) and NIO (NIO) challenge it heavily on price and tech (though both are primarily confined to China geographically still) while ICE leaders are aggressively pushing to EV. Therefore, it's possible that the EV industry will remain fragmented and Tesla will not be able to hold a monopolistic grip on the sector, where it dominates volumes and dictates the industry. The company has just north of 4% total market share, and with competition heating up rapidly, the only scenario to see market share gains possibly reach that degree would be if production capacities reach that 15 million and remain over 50% higher than peers' EV manufacturing capabilities.\nIn the long-term picture, the broader outlook is that EV will become the new norm, with manufacturers agreeing to work towards 40% to 50% volumes in EV. The overall goal still looks to be an EV-dominant or even full-EV future. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to hit the roads by 2030, greatly increasing the selection to consumers and overall supply volume of the vehicle type. With ICE vehicles as the old 'gold standard' and EV expected to become the 'new', ultimately the valuation premiums for industry disruption and tech are likely to fade and reflect similar multiples to the ICE cohort - at that time, in the long run, a majority of manufacturers will likely all be competing in the same vehicle type, with similar specs and technology. Although Tesla has been ahead of the curve, peers are catching up, and losing a disruption multiple from competitive/market share pressures and lower revenue growth rates, and valuations in the industry falling similar to what ICE manufacturers have experienced, the current 'gold standard' could see fair value at 3x sales and 21x earnings (14% net margin on $400 billion revenues), providing just an ample ~20% upside. Tesla does offer very attractive growth rates and sometimes unpredictable potential, but there's likely to be much better buying opportunities in the future as the risk-reward picture looks unfavorable at the moment.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":855780805,"gmtCreate":1635401410967,"gmtModify":1635401411067,"author":{"id":"3578460931764306","authorId":"3578460931764306","name":"HENGJR","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0596e746d9a22ec6462910c02c3129ce","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578460931764306","authorIdStr":"3578460931764306"},"htmlText":"help like","listText":"help like","text":"help 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abuy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855714363","repostId":1127302287,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":855715152,"gmtCreate":1635401233017,"gmtModify":1635401233176,"author":{"id":"3587035779894315","authorId":"3587035779894315","name":"StLiaS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d128f37c753a5fb3a7b118c38d312807","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3587035779894315","authorIdStr":"3587035779894315"},"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855715152","repostId":1127302287,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":855737076,"gmtCreate":1635400166761,"gmtModify":1635400166814,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment 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