郭明錤：除了新iPhone，这次苹果新品发布会关注什么？

天风国际郭明錤2021-09-13

iPhone 13的关注焦点在于售价，Apple Watch 7的关注焦点在于发布与否与供货状况，AirPods 3的关注焦点在于售价与新机型量产后的产品组合。预测更新： Apple新产品发布计划与投资重点主要公司： Apple (AAPL.O) Apple将在9月14日举行产品发布会，市场预期Apple可能将会发布硬件产品包括iPhone 13、Apple Watch 7与AirPods ...

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SteveCcc
2021-09-13
SteveCcc
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ruiping88
2021-09-13
ruiping88
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天风国际郭明錤</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>iPhone 13的关注焦点在于售价，Apple Watch 7的关注焦点在于发布与否与供货状况，AirPods 3的关注焦点在于售价与新机型量产后的产品组合。\n\n预测更新：\nApple新产品发布计划与投资重点\n主要公司：\nApple (AAPL.O)\nApple将在9月14日举行产品发布会，市场预期Apple可能将会发布硬件产品包括iPhone 13、Apple Watch 7与AirPods ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3640233\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AAPL","symbol_name":"苹果","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3640233","article_id":"1126546241","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9c6038c922a501076310ac125cdbb5"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126546241","pubTimestamp":1631493362,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1582003682248","name":"天风国际"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"iPhone 13的关注焦点在于售价，Apple Watch 7的关注焦点在于发布与否与供货状况，AirPods 3的关注焦点在于售价与新机型量产后的产品组合。\n\n预测更新：\nApple新产品发布计划","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"translate_title":"Guo Ming Pi: Apart from the new iPhone, what does this Apple new product launch focus on?","themeId":"a7f97c3a1f8a43b69b8bdd86db5d769a","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9326927b1c90dee40534b2039f4834f4","symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9},"content_text":"iPhone 13的关注焦点在于售价，Apple Watch 7的关注焦点在于发布与否与供货状况，AirPods 3的关注焦点在于售价与新机型量产后的产品组合。\n\n预测更新：\nApple新产品发布计划与投资重点\n主要公司：\nApple (AAPL.O)\nApple将在9月14日举行产品发布会，市场预期Apple可能将会发布硬件产品包括iPhone 13、Apple Watch 7与AirPods 3。我们认为市场对这些硬件产品的关注焦点各有不同，iPhone 13的关注焦点在于售价，Apple Watch 7的关注焦点在于发布与否与供货状况，AirPods 3的关注焦点在于售价与新机型量产后的产品组合。\n我们预测iPhone 13 ASP可能会平均容量更大而提升，但受益于美国对华为禁令，以及新设计与规格升级，故iPhone 13出货量仍能YoY成长 (vs. iPhone 12)。iPhone出货的真正挑战在于零部件短缺 (其中一个最大瓶颈来自于TI)。\n1. 我们预测iPhone 13 Pro与13 Pro Max的容量选项为128GB、256GB、512GB与1TB，iPhone 13与13 mini的容量选项为128GB、256GB与512GB。\n2. 因iPhone 13的平均容量提升，故合理预期iPhone 13 ASP也会提升。不过，受益于美国对华为禁令，以及新设计与规格升级，故iPhone 13的2021年出货量仍能YoY成长 (vs. iPhone 12的2020年出货量)。\n3. 我们认为iPhone目前面临的挑战是零部件缺料。旧款机型因缺料故在3Q21已下修约5–10%，iPhone 13则因缺料故4Q21出货量可能有潜在下修风险。不过，此下修幅度对iPhone 13出货量影响有限，我们相信iPhone 13的2021年出货量仍能成长10% YoY以上 (vs. iPhone 12的2020年出货量)。\nApple Watch 7量产时程略为递延，但对发布时程与大量出货时程影响不大。\n1. 因面板模组品质议题，故Apple Watch 7组装的量产时程略为延后至9月下旬。\n2. 我们认为Apple Watch 7量产时程递延并不会影响发布时程。Apple Watch 7的主要组装厂商立讯目前正在积极复制产线，并预计在9月底所有产线开始大量生产，故Apple Watch 7的供货自10月中下旬后将会有比较明显的改善。\nAirPods 3的关注焦点为售价与新机型量产后的产品组合。预期整体AirPods在1Q22的出货将10–15% YoY成长。\n1. 我们预估AirPods 2在AirPods 3量产后，仍会继续生产。\n2. 我们对AirPods的定价策略有两种情境：1) AirPods 3售价高于目前AirPods 2，AirPods 2售价不变、或 2) AirPods 3售价与目前AirPods 2的相同，AirPods 2售价降价。若是情境1，则市场对AirPods发布将中性看待。若是情境2，则AirPods发布将会优于市场对供应链出货的预期。\n3. 我们认为受益于旺季需求与新产品，整体AirPods在4Q21的出货量将约YoY持平，优于市场预期的YoY衰退。因新产品与AirPods在1Q21库存修正故出货基期较低，我们预测整体AirPods在1Q22出货量将成长10–15% YoY，优于市场预期的YoY持平/衰退。\n投资建议：\n我们认为iPhone 13的关注焦点在于售价，Apple Watch 7的关注焦点在于发布与否与供货状况，AirPods 3的关注焦点在于售价与量产后的产品组合。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":888650728,"gmtCreate":1631495117064,"gmtModify":1631889277166,"author":{"id":"4090153975827430","authorId":"4090153975827430","name":"SteveCcc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f9c20ab76a806a95d2c30054555e13","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"看看","listText":"看看","text":"看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888650728","repostId":1126546241,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5848553,"gmtCreate":1631500903969,"gmtModify":1631889277165,"authorId":3575508103712478,"author":{"id":3575508103712478,"authorId":3575508103712478,"name":"60fe72a9","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":888650728,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":888687983,"gmtCreate":1631493746542,"gmtModify":1631892060376,"author":{"id":"3571634257147368","authorId":"3571634257147368","name":"ruiping88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f053a026e77a382ded287ad97259cc","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888687983","repostId":1126546241,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":27,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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