百世集团离场：快递恶战“结束的开始”

远川研究所2021-10-31

本轮快递恶战的第一个“出局者”诞生了：百世快递。 10月29日，百世集团宣布作价68亿元人民币，将旗下的百世快递转让给近年来快递业最大的“黑马”极兔，未来百世将脱离快递的苦海，专注于快运、供应链、国际物流等业务。创始人周韶宁写了一封内部公开信，并称"这是一个艰难的决定"。而极兔总裁樊苏洲的发言则显得更高兴一些：“本次收购优势互补，可以优化双方在中国市场的末端网络布局。” 百世集团创始人周韶宁...

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Battle","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4e5774156e7b3ad08c4310996a50c0c","symbols_score_info":{"BEST":0.9},"content_text":"本轮快递恶战的第一个“出局者”诞生了：百世快递。\n10月29日，百世集团宣布作价68亿元人民币，将旗下的百世快递转让给近年来快递业最大的“黑马”极兔，未来百世将脱离快递的苦海，专注于快运、供应链、国际物流等业务。\n创始人周韶宁写了一封内部公开信，并称\"这是一个艰难的决定\"。而极兔总裁樊苏洲的发言则显得更高兴一些：“本次收购优势互补，可以优化双方在中国市场的末端网络布局。”\n\n百世集团创始人周韶宁昨天（10月29日）公开信\n周韶宁并非\"桐庐系\"草根出身，而是毕业于复旦和普林斯顿，曾与李开复、王怀南并称为Google中国的三驾马车，但在创业14年后卖掉旗下最核心资产，个中滋味恐怕只有自己能体会。\n消息并没有引起圈内的惊讶，因为百世快递近几年一直经营艰难，“卖身”的声音三个月前就在坊间流传，被猜测的买家包括顺丰、极兔甚至字节跳动，最后“花落”极兔也在情理之中。\n虽然“套现”68亿，但百世的日子并不好过。百世集团的负债率目前高达95.2%，总负债175亿人民币，出售核心资产更像是“断臂求生”。因此并购消息一出，百世美股反而重挫23.7%。\n百世的离场，意味着本轮“史上最惨烈快递价格战”迎来了第一个离场的玩家，这似乎是恶战将要结束的一个积极信号。对于二级市场投资人来说，格局的微妙变化往往意味着行业的拐点。\n远川长期跟踪和研究快递行业，对极兔并购百世，我们的观点是：\n百世的离场标志着行业格局的改善，恶战虽然没有完全结束，但已经进入到“结束的开始”阶段。另外极兔实力持续增强，短期内将继续对“通达系”甚至顺丰产生冲击。\n本文将围绕着下面三个核心问题，来论证上述结论：\n01. 百世离场对行业有何冲击？\n02. “超能打”的极兔为何收购百世？\n03. 下一个出局的巨头会是谁？\n下面进入正文部分。\n01  百世离场对行业有何影响？\n本轮“史上最惨烈快递战争”的前因后果，我们在长篇特稿《快递的最后一战》中详细介绍过，这里简单总结一下：\n历经多年内卷的快递市场在2019年达到了“稳态”，6大寡头（四通一达+顺丰，不包括京东(JD.US)）分享了超过80%的市场份额，顺丰和中通分别成为时效件和电商件领域的最大龙头。\n\n当时市场认为头部公司网络效应日益明显，新玩家入场成本越来越高，中小玩家纷纷出局，行业竞争烈度会有所下降，6家公司会缓慢地向3家寡头的终局演进，就是所谓的“6进3”。\n为什么最终会是3家寡头？其实这也是一种参照海外成熟市场的猜测，并没有严格的依据，快递也有可能像啤酒行业一样形成5家寡头的格局。因此到底是“6进3”还是“6进5”，都是一种简单的参照，用来形容行业走向终局的过程，不必深究。\n但到了2020年，形势突变，背靠巨头的三家公司极兔（OV拼多多(PDD.US)）、众邮（京东）、丰网（顺丰）下场入局。\n极兔于2020年3月起网，众邮2020年4月在广东起网，同月顺丰成立“丰网”试水加盟制电商，并于2020年10月起网。行业格局从之前可能的“6进3”，变成了现在的“9进3”，格局再度恶化。\n快递之所以这么“卷”，核心在于产品没法差异化，竞争力主要靠价格。不断压低成本，不断扩大规模也就成了唯一的活路。快递业内有一句俗话，叫做：宁愿累死自己，也要饿死同行。\n在惨烈的竞争下，6家巨头中的百世率先挺不住了。事实上，百世集团2015年以来就没有赚过钱，去年在惨烈的价格战下亏损高达20亿，今年上半年也亏损了10.7亿，离场只是时间问题。\n\n百世离场卖身极兔，会直接让行业格局从“9进3”变成“8进3”——少了一张吃饭的嘴，饭桌上的人自然会松一口气。\n02  “超能打”的极兔为何收购百世？？\n一个众所不周知的事实是：极兔现在常被称为“快递界拼多多”，但刚进入中国市场时，它的外号叫做”印尼版的顺丰”。\n极兔在东南亚的口碑的确跟国内截然不同 。极兔海外发家史我们在《复盘极兔崛起：一个中国式扩张的印尼样本》一文中详述过，东南亚市场让极兔获得了源源不断的输血支持。\n除了海外母公司，极兔也获得了国内顶级资本的支持。今年4月，极兔完成了18亿美元的融资，背景深厚的博裕资本领投5.8亿美元，红杉资本和高瓴跟投，据称投后估值78亿美元。\n有人曾经发出这样的疑问：为什么高瓴、红杉、博裕会投资投资快递这个超级拥挤的赛道？上述投资者中的某一家对远川透露了其简化版的投资逻辑：\n加盟制快递公司长期以来其实是投资不足的，终端网点的老板能省则省。但极兔不一样，加盟商多半是跟着“步步高系”赚过大钱的经销商，投资能力很强，忠诚度也很高，依靠经销商的资金流和拼多多的商流，极兔很容易挤进第一梯队。\n外有印尼输血，内有财团支持，极兔看起来无人能挡。但在4月融资不久，监管层就对快递愈演愈烈的价格战进行了干预，这对用“价格屠杀”的方式做到接近3000万单/天的极兔来说是个坏消息。\n在业务被捆住手脚的情况下，并购显然是一种更有效的做法。在最近“反垄断”的大背景下，这笔并购的时间点选择也很巧妙。具体体现在一下三个方面：\n01. 百世跟极兔的互补性较强\n一位快递业内专家对远川这样评价本次交易：\n百世对中通(02057)、韵达等头部企业来说重合性太高，没有价值，但对极兔起步晚，百世还是有些价值，收购等于直接获得了大量转运中心、硬软件、人员队伍、网络等资源，市占率也会增加。\n不过百世2021年上半年业务下滑严重，份额下滑到8%左右，高管大量离职，例如原百世快递总经理周建就跳槽顺丰，担任丰网的总经理。按照极兔目前的状态，11亿美金并不便宜。\n02. 价格战不让打，并购成了提份额的唯一手段\n随着2021年上半年各地监管部门重拳出击，快递价格战出现了缓和迹象，这给靠价格战烧钱抢市场的后排玩家戴上了枷锁。于是兼并收购，便成为了快速提升市场份额的唯一手段。\n截至目前，极兔日单量在2000-2200万之间。而据百世集团本年度二季度财报，其快递业务日单量约2500万。有业内人士预计，两者合并后的日单量会在4500万以上，占市场份额的14%，极兔将一跃跨入电商件市场前三/四。\n03. 并购百世等于切入了淘系\n对于电商件快递来说，除了价格，商流无疑是另一重要命脉。虽然前期依靠拼多多商流的支持，但极兔的天花板显然还不够高。而隶属阿里的菜鸟网络，此前将极兔拒之门外。\n这次，极兔直接收购了本身已在菜鸟体系内的百世，相当于“曲线”进入了阿里体系——在反垄断和严打“二选一”背景下，阿里几乎没有任何理由（也不敢）再把极兔排除在菜鸟之外。\n阿里的淘系电商是百世最大的订单来源，而且持股百世高达 37%，投票权则达到 46.2%，略高于创始人周韶宁。这笔收购案阿里之所以能够放行，应该跟目前反垄断的大背景有关。\n因此，极兔并购百世的战略撬动意义很大。但是对”通达系“成员来说，一只实力不断增强的兔子，只会给他们带来更多的困扰和冲击。\n03  下一个离场的快递巨头是谁？\n市场都在猜测：百世离场之后，谁会是下一个？\n“通达系”和顺丰在恶性价格战中都失血严重。从利润数据上来看，四通一达中成立最早的老大哥申通快递（前身盛彤）目前相对艰难，2020年勉强微利，2021年3季度亏损2.37亿元。\n\n老玩家们面对生猛的后浪，往往无奈。比如在达到“日均订单达到2000万”的阈值，申通整整花了25年，而极兔快递只用了10个月。这也是很多投资人觉得“快递行业没有护城河”的重要依据。\n目前相对从容的是中通和韵达，两者的市场份额位列第一和第二。合并百世后，极兔的市场份额接近目前排名第三的圆通。而从单票盈利能力上来看，中通、韵达、圆通都能实现盈利。\n\n阿里系对“四通一达”均有投资，但比较尴尬的是，持股比例最高的百世和申通（阿里甚至向申通空降了高管）目前经营最困难；而持股比例最低的中通和韵达，反而逐渐胜出。\n\n由此可见，在撒胡椒面式的投资方式下，“爸爸”的持股比例并没有那么重要，反而是跟经销商的绑定更重要。各家快递公司的IPO前[1]，中通的高管、员工和加盟商的持股达到26.5%，圆通和韵达只有2.25%和2.19%，申通为0。\n顺丰一季度的巨亏将快递业的内卷“昭告天下”，百世的离场则拉开了终局的序幕，但很明显，退出比赛的不会只有一家。\n04 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