Why I'm Buying AMC's Debt

Seeking Alpha2021-12-01

Summary AMC has recently been able to capitalize heavily on its ‘meme stock’ status and shored up its cash position rather substantially. AMC has been recovering well in the past few months and is ...

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senggy
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2021-12-01
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy I'm Buying AMC's Debt\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-01 21:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472766-amc-bonds-why-i-am-buying><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAMC has recently been able to capitalize heavily on its ‘meme stock’ status and shored up its cash position rather substantially.\nAMC has been recovering well in the past few months and is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472766-amc-bonds-why-i-am-buying\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AMC","symbol_name":"AMC院线","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472766-amc-bonds-why-i-am-buying","article_id":"1125581925","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125581925","pubTimestamp":1638366944,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nAMC has recently been able to capitalize heavily on its ‘meme stock’ status and shored up i","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"translate_title":"我为什么要买AMC的债","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nAMC has recently been able to capitalize heavily on its ‘meme stock’ status and shored up its cash position rather substantially.\nAMC has been recovering well in the past few months and is set to return to profitability next quarter.\nWhile there is still a ways to go before it is in a healthy cash position, AMC is in a suitable position to justify investing in its bonds.\nAMC was in dire need of capital in the early stages of the pandemic, so it sold bonds with high yields and coupon rates in order to attract creditors.\nNow that the company has been able to reduce its risk of defaulting, investors can take advantage of these high-yield, underpriced loans with a bit more confidence.\n\nMario Tama/Getty Images News\nEarlier this year, as I’m sure most readers are aware, AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)got caught up in the ‘Wall Street Bets’ mania that took the retail investor crowd by storm. Reaching a peak of $72.62 back in June, AMC is now a ways off of its height but is still trading at a fairly elevated level of $33.94 (at the time of article submission). This isn’t an article meant to analyze if this new price is the new norm, I don’t really think that there’s a case to be made that it is. Instead, I’ll be looking at some of AMC’s available bonds, in increasing order of security, and why I believe they’re some of the most attractive securities on the market right now, especially for income investors.\nLikelihood of Payout\nBefore I look at the bonds themselves, understanding the security, or potential lack thereof, that they offer is important. Having lost $4.6 billion last year, and $149 million before the COVID era, it may seem ludicrous to even consider the fact that AMC is a good bet for creditors. However, the company took full advantage of its “meme stock” status and has raised significant funds off the back of its incredibly inflated valuation.\nEven before the company earned its meme status, AMC had raised $917 million from mid-December to late January. $506 million of this came from the sale of new equity and the company was able to convert $100 million in second-lien debt into equity as well. AMC was alsoable to convert $600 million in senior notes held by Silver Lake into equity. The company has also raisedmore than $1 billion from April and November of the previous year through equity and debt raises, as well as “a modest amount of asset sales.” These early capital raises enabled AMC to become a bit better-equipped to handle its existing debt load in light of the previous year’s poor performance. However, all of this together still wasn’t really enough.\nThen, late in January, things changed rapidly for the struggling movie giant. Trading at around $5 on January 26, shares would rise to about $20 the following day. While they would soon retreat from such highs, shares sustained an elevated level of trading until late May came around and shares broke the $60 barrier in a matter of days. This new price presented AMC with a golden opportunity.\nWhile the company waited a little to fully seize the opportunity,AMC raised a total of $1.246 billion in the second quarter. All in equity. With such an elevated stock price, AMC was able to raise far more money than they would’ve been able to previously and at a far lower level of dilution. After this more aggressive round of funding, AMC’s CEO, Adam Aron, said of the raise “[it has] substantially strengthen[ed] and improv[ed] AMC’s balance sheet, providing valuable flexibility to respond to potential challenges and capitalize on attractive opportunities in the future.” The last part of this I find particularly interesting, as it implies that AMC may even have some excess capital to invest if a particularly attractive opportunity presents itself. While I’m not sure if AMC is quite in the position to begin spending money on new opportunities again, it does speak towards the confidence in the company’s current capital structure.\nEven before this incredible capital raise, Mr. Aron was rather pleased with the company’s standing,saying: “I am optimistic and confident about AMC’s ability to weather this COVID-19 storm. Our focus is no longer on survival.” The executive’s remarks, made in March, even came before AMC’s strongest rally in the stock market. This level of confidence, coming before the company’s largest capital raise, provides even further reassurance. But enough of this discussion of sentiment. With all of this recent movement, what exactly is AMC’s cash position?\n\nSource: Author’s Calculations via Bloomberg Terminal\nExamining the company’s liquidity ratios, AMC unsurprisingly isn’t terribly well-positioned. The company’s current ratio, which measures current assets versus current liabilities, has trended below one since data is available. The quick ratio, which excludes inventory from the measure, has never reached 1 for as far back as public data goes. While inventory is typically considered rather liquid, it can require significant time to convert into cash, hence the ‘quick’ liquidity ratio. A ratio of 1 or above signifies that a company’s easily liquidable assets are able to cover all of its short-term debt obligations. As AMC does not have a current ratio, or quick ratio for that matter, above this mark, it cannot simply rely on easy liquidation and current cash to cover its short-term liabilities.\nSimilarly, looking at the company’s debt to asset ratio, we can see that debt dramatically outweighs the company’s assets. Looking at the historical ratios for AMC, we can see that this isn’t anything that new either. While this, unsurprisingly, increased a lot over 2020, the company has a historically high debt to equity ratio. This signals that AMC has largely relied on debt throughout its lifetime to grow its assets. This heavy use of debt is the main culprit behind AMC’s current weak capital position and concerns of bankruptcy last year. Though, the fact that this is nothing new should tell investors that a high debt to asset ratio isn’t inherently a bad thing. The theatre business is a very capital-intensive business and not utilizing debt in this manner would make expansion incredibly difficult.\nWhat is noteworthy, however, is exactly how inflated this ratio has become. In 2020, AMC’s debt to equity ratio turned negative for the first time, signaling that the company’s liabilities surpassed its assets. Often, companies in such a predicament face insolvency as they’re faced with an inability to make good on debt obligations. However, this was at the end of 2020. We’ll have to wait for AMC’s full-year report to see how this has changed, though the company’s lowering of debt and dramatic increase in capital through the sale of stock indicates that this should return to a positive for 2021.\nIf we look at the company’s market value to debt ratio, we can see that AMC’s equity position at the moment is incredibly strong as it transitions away from merely struggling to stay afloat. At .63, AMC is actually in a position to be able to fund its debt obligations through equity. That’s down dramatically from the 23.87 from the end of 2020, though still quite a bit above the .1 average for other U.S. firms. The importance here is more in the tremendous decrease over the last eleven months though. We know that AMC isn’t a pinnacle of financial excellence at the moment, that’s the entire reason this article even exists. What is important to note, is that the company’s financial health is rapidly improving.\nI don’t think that there’s much question that AMC will sell more equity before defaulting, as dilution is far less damaging than defaulting on debt would be. AMC has been prioritizing its debt payments throughout its recovery and there’s no reason that it would stop now that it has even greater means to do so. While the majority of these figures don’t necessarily indicate the most financially healthy company, it does demonstrate a company on the mend which I believe has eliminated concerns of insolvency.\nOne of the main takeaways here is that a high debt load isn’t really anything new for AMC. Yes, right now it’s higher than usual. This was especially true for the end of 2020. Though, with the capital raised from selling more equity, AMC is in a far better place than it previously was. More importantly, AMC was missing the income it usually has to supplement its high level of debt. As consumers return to theatres, this income will begin to return.\nReturn to Normalcy\nLooking at the numbers doesn’t really paint a great picture for AMC. However, the numbers don’t really tell the full story. Operational success is how companies tend to handle these matters and AMC is just starting to exit the most challenging operational environment of its life. As the world gradually begins a return to normalcy, its cash position will improve dramatically.\nTo start this off, let’s take a look at some Seeking Alpha analysis on AMC. In this article, the author focused on how moviegoing is poised for a comeback on the back of multiple highly-successful film debuts. This is bolstered by the fact that companies seem set to return to the norm of exclusive theatrical releases for new movies, as Disney(NYSE:DIS) recently announced it would. Two other articles,on Cineplex and Cinemark, offer similar conclusions.\nIn the above articles, authors examine the future of the theatre business and discuss how the companies are on the path to return to profitability. As I agree with the general theses there, being that theatre operators are on their way back to their old form, I believe it’s safe to say that AMC is officially on the road to recovery. Now, I accept that AMC still has some way to go before becoming profitable again, however it is definitely on the mend. Additionally, the pandemic gave AMC the opportunity to make harsh cuts to its business that will ultimately benefit the company’s operational efficiency moving forward.\nMore recently, AMC released its third quarter earnings. The company lost $244 million off of $763.2 million in revenue. The positive here is that the company’s revenue climbed 71.5% over the previous quarter. Keep in mind that this doesn’t account for high-profile releases in October such as No Time to Dieor the second Venom title. The upcoming Spiderman and Matrix releases should only expedite the company’s recovery in the final quarter of the year. Corporate leadership is currently guiding towards a positive EBITDA for Q4.\nMoving on, let’s take a look at AMC’s net margin through the years. As the figure above demonstrates, AMC’s been churning out an abysmally low net margin pretty consistently for a decade. This is the normal that AMC is working so hard to return to?! After AMC added a tremendous level of expensive debt during the lows of the pandemic, it now needs to do more than just return to normal in order to successfully pay it off.\nAMC’s corporate borrowings have risen from $4.753 billion in 2019, to $5.453 billion as of September 30th. The good news, if there is any, is that AMC’s $5.453 billion in corporate borrowings marks a ~$250 million decrease from the $5.716 billion that the company had at the end of 2020. What really caught me by surprise, however, is that the company’s 2020 interest expense on corporate borrowings was only up ~6.22% from 2019. So, although expensive, the ~20.26% jump in total corporate borrowings in the same period indicates that this debt is actually less expensive than the company’s existing debt was.\nAs AMC begins a return to normalcy, I would expect to see it recover to a healthy interest coverage ratio. Before the pandemic, AMC’s interest coverage ratio was consistently above 5, meaning that its EBITDA could be used to pay off its interest five times over. A mere 6.22% increase in interest expenses means that AMC should be able to recover this important metric with general ease. Essentially, what this demonstrates is that AMC should be able to fully cover its interest expenses with operating revenues as soon as next year.\nSo, with the risk of defaulting on future interest payments looking pretty low, the only major risk remaining is the company’s questionable ability to pay off its debt upon maturity. I don’t mean to downplay the importance of this risk, as it carries the most potential for defaulting, so let’s take a look at how AMC’s return to normalcy will affect its ability to pay off its debt.\nMr. Aron discussed in the company’s most recent earnings call that debt, out of all of the issues surrounding AMC for the past two years, was never something that was seriously concerning to him. The company took on a lot of debt during the pandemic though, according to Mr. Aron, it was done “in a smart way.” He explained that there are no maturity dates before 2023, which will only be “a few $100 million worth”, and that the majority of the company’s debt will come due in 2026.\nThe major component that Mr. Aron highlighted, however, is that the presence of debt isn’t inherently a bad thing. Of course, high debt loads such as AMC’s aren’t exactly the most healthy in the world, but almost every large corporation in the country carries debt to maximize shareholder returns. With a return to profitability as soon as next quarter, AMC’s operational health is rapidly improving and it can update its debt position to reflect that. The company expects to refinance its debt starting in 2023, lowering its interest payments and pushing back maturity dates. The goal isn’t to completely eliminate debt, rather it is to make debt a more manageable amount. The way the company is currently trending, this seems more than doable.\nAttractive Bond Offerings\nSo now that we’ve determined that AMC looks to be fairly reliable in its ability to pay off its debt, it’s time to find the bonds that look the most attractive. I’ve found four high-yield bonds that I believe offer the best investment opportunities,courtesy of Finra. Typically, high-yield bonds are rather risky investments as, in order to convince creditors to lend money, firms must offer a substantial reward. However, I argue that, due to AMC’s dramatically improved cash position, its bonds are unjustly discounted and offer a strong investment opportunity.\nBeginning with the highest-yielding bond,CUSIP:00165AAH1, the security currently has a yield to maturity of 13.608%. With a coupon rate of 5.75%, paid semi-annually, the appeal here isn’t so much the passive income opportunity, but the overall yield rate. Now, a 5.75% annual coupon rate isn’t too shabby, but the 12.881% yield to maturity is what grabs my attention. Assuming that my above analysis holds true, and AMC is able to pay off its current debt loads, the yield here is pretty strong. However, this bond does carry the highest level of risk with it as an unsecured note.\nThe second highest-yielding bond,CUSIP:00165CAP9, does hold a noteworthy advantage over the previously discussed CUSIP:00165AAH1 bond. While its yield to maturity is slightly lower, at 11.294%, it is a second lien note. This is the second-highest bond priority ranking and, even more importantly, is ensured. If AMC were to default on its payments, the value of the loan has been secured by collateral. This would force the sale of assets in order to ensure that loan-holders receive their payments. Now, as a second lien note holder, owners aren’t guaranteed to receive the entire value of their loan in the case of the company defaulting, but they will at least receive a fraction. You will be paying for this heightened security a bit via the slightly lower yield rate, especially as its maturity date is a full year later, on June 6th, 2026. However, with a coupon rate of 12%, paid semi-annually, the moderately guaranteed income that the bond can provide is incredibly attractive. The bond is currently trading just below its price at maturity of $1,000, at $983.90.\nIf you’re after the full security that a first lien note would offer, there are also a couple of good options. However, keep in mind that you will be paying an even greater premium for this security. Both,CUSIP:00165CAN4 and CUSIP:00165CAR5, have yield to maturity rates that are in the 6% range. The first of the two, CUSIP:00165CAN4, matures on April 15th, 2025 and has a yield to maturity rate of 7.905%. The second of the two expires the following year on April 24th, with a yield to maturity rate of 7.844%. Both are trading slightly above their price at maturity of $1,000, with CUSIP:00165CAN4 at $1072.50 and CUSIP:00165CAR5 at $1,054.90 and $1,060 respectively. Both bonds also have a coupon rate of 10.5%, paid semi-annually, representing a rather strong source of, consistent, secured income. Assuming the company doesn’t go bankrupt before the maturity dates, which is seeming incredibly unlikely at this point, the return on these bonds is rather attractive.\nSo, how did these incredibly attractive offerings even come to exist in the first place? Well, the CUSIP:00165CAP9 bond was issued in late 2020, a time where AMC was struggling tremendously and there weren’t any murmurs of a ‘meme stock’ rally on the horizon. At that point, a 12% coupon rate compounded semi-annually looked about the only way the company could convince creditors to loan money. CUSIP:00165CAN4 and CUSIP:00165CAR5, the two first lien notes, were also issued in mid- to late-2020 and, for the same reasons, were offered at attractive loaning figures to try and make up for the immense risk they carried. CUSIP:00165AAH1 was first offered in 2016, hence its lower coupon rate, but still shares one of the most important figures with the other loans -- a terrible rating. However, these ratings were given before AMC had been able to strengthen its cash position and no longer represent the company’s ability to make good on its debt payments. Even still, the low ratings keep the bonds out of mind for a majority of investing tools and, therefore, keep interest low. Additionally, the fact that AMC has performed better than expected in its past quarterly two earnings reports demonstrates that the Street still seems to be underestimating the pace of recovery. Hence, an opportunity is born.\nInvestor Takeaway\nBy no means is this article an endorsement of AMC’s stock. I rather agree with the general consensus here on Seeking Alpha that this is a company to stay away from. What I do want the reader to take away from this, however, is that I believe AMC’s cash position, although weak, is suitable to cover its debt obligations and that its high-yield bonds are now rather attractive because of this. While the security largely came at the price of heavy dilution, this isn’t really a concern as this investment thesis isn’t really concerned about the share price of AMC.\nThe first lien notes offer the safest investment option and, CUSIP:00165CAR5 in particular, should be a part of any play on AMC’s debt. CUSIP:00165CAN4 is likely the safest though, as it comes due a year before the majority of AMC’s existing debt, further lowering any bankruptcy concerns. I also rather like the CUSIP:00165CAP9 bond as a way to increase returns rather substantially through a bit more risk. While I still believe that the risk of defaulting is relatively low, compared to what it was, it still does exist and the moderate protection is nice to have. I feel that the risk to return ratio here, on second lien versus first lien, is worth it. What I don’t feel is worth it, is the CUSIP:00165AAH1 bond. With a low coupon rate, and a yield to maturity only slightly above that of the more secure second lien note, it offers a fair amount more risk with a negligibly improved payoff. It doesn’t hold the same advantage as the other bonds, as it wasn’t issued in the dire circumstances that AMC was facing in 2020.\nSince I began writing this article in mid-October, the yield of these bonds has already dropped by a notable margin. CUSIP:00165CAP9 (second lien note) for example, which currently has a YTM of 11.294%, had a YTM of 12.451% at the time. Now, CUSIP:00165AAH1 (unsecured) had a 12.811% YTM and CUSIP:00165CAR5 (first lien) had a YTM of 6.57%, which means that their returns have actually improved since then. Regardless, it seems that the bond market, in general, is starting to price in AMC’s recovery and investors may not have this opportunity for too much longer. 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