This Might Be the Most Important Metric If You Own Apple Stock

Barrons2021-08-25

Back in April, Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall backed away from his long-term bearish stance on Apple shares, raising his rating to Hold from Sell, and conceding that his previous view that iPhone ...

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精彩评论

EsmeT
2021-08-25
EsmeT
Tg
CoolFox
2021-08-25
CoolFox
ARPU is a very good indicator, as Apple’s consumers are known to be willing to spend a lot. It’s a good addition to the traditional ones when you look forinvesting (e.g, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow and Income).
Hb_
2021-08-25
Hb_
W
IZzz
2021-08-25
IZzz
Pls like thanks
- Hb_:
  w
- CasperC:
  ok
- EsmeT:
  Ok
- IZzz:
  Ok
- IZzz:
  Om
CygnuSupreme
2021-08-25
CygnuSupreme
Please like
- JimmyT:
  ok

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For one thing, he thinks Street estimates for next year are simply too high. Hall projects revenue for the September 2021 fiscal year of $371.7 billion, about $5 billion above the Street consensus, and up 35% from fiscal 2020. But he sees fiscal 2022 revenue falling 4% to $356.5 billion, a projection $23 billion below the Street consensus at $379.5 billion.\nHall provided some insights on this thinking in a new research note on Tuesday, with a particular focus on Apple’s ability to drive up average revenue per user. Hall writes that his broad view of Apple has been that stable revenue per user combined with “maximized” global user penetration is likely to result in slowing overall revenue growth, a view reflected in his fiscal 2022 forecast.\nBut he noted that Covid provided multiple boosts to Apple’s ARPU, which he estimates will increase 21% over the two-year period through the end of 2021. (That reflects his estimate of 19% growth in ARPU in calendar 2021, after 2% growth in 2020.) The impressive growth stems from both surging iPhone, Mac, iPad and Wearables revenue, as well as strong services revenue, due in part to accelerated downloads from the App Store.\nBut he sees that pattern reversing as spending patterns return to normal over time as the pandemic ebbs.\nHall concedes that it is hard to predict Apple user behavior in the short run. Covid has created some tough comps for Apple, driven by pull-forward in hardware demand, above-average App Store spending and a demonstrated preference for high-end versions of the iPhone and other hardware. He also says investors need to factor in high levels of consumer savings and the increasing value of Apple’s products, as well as more flexible work and study behavior. But he nonetheless thinks that in the long run, Apple will either need to drive up ARPU or accelerate subscriber growth trends to keep revenue growth above GDP growth.\nFor calendar 2022, Hall sees average revenue per user dropping about 12% on a year-over-year basis – due in large part to an expected moderation of hardware sales. He projects iPhone revenue will fall 12% in 2022, following 37% growth in 2021, with units down 3% and average selling prices down 9%. He sees 2022 revenue declines of 9% in Macs and 8% in iPads. And he sees services revenue growth moderating to 6%, from 24% growth in 2021, with a recovery in ad spending partially offsetting tough comparisons for the App Store.\nHall also makes the case that investors would be better off looking at ARPU trends than trying to discern unit volumes, particularly given the company has not actually provided product unit data since the end of fiscal 2018. 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It’s a good addition to the traditional ones when you look forinvesting (e.g,&nbsp;Balance Sheet, Cash Flow and Income).","listText":"ARPU is a very good indicator, as Apple’s consumers are known to be willing to spend a lot. It’s a good addition to the traditional ones when you look forinvesting (e.g,&nbsp;Balance Sheet, Cash Flow and Income).","text":"ARPU is a very good indicator, as Apple’s consumers are known to be willing to spend a lot. It’s a good addition to the traditional ones when you look forinvesting (e.g, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow and 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like thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like thanks&nbsp;","text":"Pls like 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