Is Tesla Stock A Buy Or Sell Before Upcoming Earnings?

Seeking Alpha2021-10-19

Summary Earlier this month, Tesla released Q3 global delivery volumes of 241,300 vehicles, a record for the electric vehicle titan. The figures set stage for better-than-expected Q3 earnings results,...

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精彩评论

Dazhu
2021-10-19
Dazhu
Will it continue to rise, or drop after earnings?
- Jo5tarz:
  abit of pull back wouldn't hurt 🙃
Museigen
2021-10-19
Museigen
Like
nelson21
2021-10-19
nelson21
Pls like
FollWin
2021-10-19
FollWin
Should buy more of this share now.
Juvie
2021-10-19
Juvie
always a good time

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However, the sentiment-driven uptick is expected to dial back towards the high-$700 to $800 level shortly after to reflect Tesla's renewed intrinsic value on improved fundamentals.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nTesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA)stockhas been on a steady uptrend since May, gaining almost 50% as rising global electric vehicle (“EV”) demand continues to underpin record-setting sales growth for the automaker. Tesla’s recent release of record-setting deliveries of 241,300 vehicles worldwide for the third quarter has gotten investors eyeing better-than-expected results at the upcoming earnings call. Paired with an overall improvement in market sentiment following recent reports of bottoming initial unemployment benefit claims and slowing producer price increases, which have assuaged fears of inflation eroding economic recovery, the stock has been further catapulted past the $800 mark with strong upward momentum over the past week.\nThe stock will likely continue to benefit from an immediate boost considering improved investor sentiment stemming from expectations for upbeat results at the upcoming earnings call. But despite a strong quarter that points to a continued competitive advantage in managing ongoing operational pressures from supply chain constraints and accelerating global EV demand, the stock’s current price levels are already reflective of the company’s projected intrinsic value. While Tesla continues to improve from a fundamental point of view with continued outperforming sales across the board, new material catalysts would be required to sustain further expansion from a valuation standpoint. On this basis, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of Tesla’s upcoming earnings release, with a revised 12-month price target of $806.\nBetter-Than-Expected Q3 Delivery Volumes and What It Implies\nDespite a severely constrained supply of semiconductors and other supply chain chaos like congested ports, Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the third quarter. The quarter marks Tesla’s best one yet, while also surpassing the average consensus estimate and Tesla guide for global deliveries of 223,677 vehicles and 221,952 vehicles, respectively. The results were a testament to Tesla’s exceptional handling of the ongoing chip supply crisis and logistical constraints, which continue to be a major overhang on the automotive sector. Even Volkswagen, one of Tesla’s strongest competitors, has openly complimented on the EV maker’s ability in leveraging proprietary software it had developed to enable compatibility with different suppliers’ chips as an “impressive” mean in navigating swiftly through the crisis.\nImproved China Sales\nOf the 241,300 vehicles delivered, more than 73,000 vehicles were attributable to local sales in China. Tesla delivered 56,006 vehicles produced from its Shanghai manufacturing plant in the month of September alone, with only 3,853 of which were exported to Europe. The results are a turnaround from depressed second quarter and July sales in the largest and fastest-growing EV market in the world, following a slew of negative press ranging from the April protest at the Shanghai Auto Show to the June recall of almost every Tesla vehicle sold in China due to a flaw in the vehicles’ active cruise control feature. It is also a sign that Tesla has been and continues to be doing just fine, if not even better, in satisfying robust demand from the Chinese market, despite rising competition from domestic peers like NIO (NYSE:NIO),Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV).\nWith China’s new car sales down 17% in September and 13% in the entire third quarter due to a prolonged lack of chips, Tesla’s record-setting deliveries in the region further corroborates its strength in keeping related impacts at bay and under control. Although Elon Musk has continued to blame the “global shortage of chips and ships” as the biggest roadblock to maintaining sales growth of more than 50%, Tesla has fared the best amongst its peers, which will likely continue to reel from supply bottlenecks through to the end of 2022. The China Machinery Industry Federation has recently estimated two million fewer vehicles produced in China this year. The same narrative applies on the global sale, with a recently revised estimate on the quantified impact of ongoing chip supply shortages for the global automotive sector jumping to $210 billion, equivalent to 7.7 million fewer vehicles produced compared to a previous forecast of 3.9 million vehicles.\nHigh-Margin Model 3/Y Sales Leading the Way\nAs a pioneer and leader of the industry, Tesla remains a closely watched gauge for global EV adoption rates. Model 3 and Model Y sales accounted for more than 96% of third quarter deliveries. As the lower priced, higher-margin models, the Model 3 and Model Y were made to better appeal to mass market demand. The China-made Model Y boasts a competitive price tag of under $53,000, but earns a profit margin of close to 30% for Tesla, while the industry average hovers at only 8% to 10%. And now, with Model 3 and Model Y sales leading the way, not only do Tesla’s fundamentals benefit from better margins, but the trend also underpins rapid global EV adoption and robust demand for new energy vehicles around the world. This further corroborates the promising growth trajectory of Tesla’s core vehicle sales unit from a fundamental standpoint.\nRevised Revenue Projections on an Improved Vehicle Sales Outlook\nAdjusting our previous forecast for Tesla’s better-than-expected vehicle sales outlook for the rest of the year, considering milder impacts from global supply chain constraints and improved global EV demand, our base case projections estimate total automotive revenues of $44.5 billion by the end of the year. Meanwhile, we have maintained the long-term growth assumption for Tesla’s automotive sales at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 20.1% towards $170.4 billion in revenues by 2030, which is consistent with current market expectations on global EV demand going into the next decade. The growth assumption also takes into consideration Tesla’s expanded production capacity with the new Berlin and Texas manufacturing plants coming online later this year to satisfy the continued surge of demand for EVs. The Berlin plant, in particular, is expected to be gamechanger for the EV maker’s presence in Europe. Tesla’s Shanghai manufacturing facility currently supplies some of the highly demanded Model 3/Y vehicles sold in Europe. But as demand from both the Chinese and European markets continue to surge, the Berlin plant will play a critical role in alleviating any supply bottlenecks and/or logistics challenges pertaining to China exports considering expensive shipping costs and lengthened delivery times from increasingly congested ports. Tesla’s Gigafactory in Berlin is expected to come online as soon as next month, and aims to ramp production capacity up to anywhere between 5,000 and 10,000 vehicles per week by the end of next year.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts\nOn the other hand, service revenues are expected to grow accordingly as well, considering they are primarily generated from after-sales vehicle services. Our base case forecast projects $4.0 billion by the end of the year, with growth towards $15.0 billion by the end of the decade.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nOur previous forecast for energy generation and storage revenues remains unchanged, considering Tesla’s continued strategy in prioritizing vehicle productions over energy generation and storage productions in the event of constrained resources:\n\n “Well, by the same token, if we're prioritizing vehicle production, if there's a shortage of cell upward from some reason then we will throttle down Megapack and Powerwall production. So that it could be something's got to give, basically.”Elon Musk,Q2 Earnings Call\n\nEnergy generation and storage revenues are expected to total $3.1 billion by the end of the year, and further advance at a CAGR of 8.9% towards $4.7 billion by 2030. The growth assumption applied reflects continued pent-up demand for the Megapack, which has already sold out until next year, and the Powerwall, which continues to accumulate a backlog of orders.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nLastly, by maintaining the projected cost structure unchanged from our previous coverage, our revised forecast on Tesla’s total earnings come to $4.0 billion by the end of the year, which represents close to a four-fold increase from 2020. The bottom line is expected to further advance towards $15.3 billion by the end of the decade as production and deliveries continue to ramp up across Tesla’s core vehicle sales business, and energy generation and storage systems sales unit.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nTSLA Stock Valuation\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConsistent with recent developments regarding Tesla’s improved fundamentals from softer supply chain impacts and recovering China sales, we have upped our 12-month price target for the stock to $805.20. Considering our price target approximates Tesla’s current share price levels, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of its upcoming earnings release.\nThe price target is derived from a discounted cash flow analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the forecasted financial information analyzed in earlier sections. The key valuation assumptions applied in the analysis, which includes the exit multiple and WACC used to discount projected future earnings, remain unchanged from our previous coverage. An exit multiple of 73.2x is applied to reflect Tesla’s continued leadership within the industry, as well as its growth prospects compared to industry peers. A WACC of 10.1% is applied to discount Tesla’s projected free cash flows in the valuation analysis, which takes into consideration the company’s current risk profile given its continued reduction of leverage with growing cash flows generated from operations.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nii. Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nDespite a big quarter for the EV maker, nothing material has changed from a valuation perspective. Tesla is already one of the largest automakers by market cap, which inches close to the total size of the most reputable legacy automakers in the U.S. and Europe combined. Yet, Tesla’s ranking by vehicle sales volume sits at 18th place, which indicates that any improvements to its fundamentals from existing operations, ranging from car sales and related add-on services, to energy generation and storage solutions including its Supercharging network, have already been priced into its current valuation. On this basis, new material catalysts would be required to catapult Tesla’s already sky-high valuation to newer heights. And one of these material changing catalysts would likely include the ultimate rollout of level 4 and level 5 full autonomous driving technology and robotaxis, which continues to be delayed and hampered with increasing regulatory scrutiny.\nMusk had originally committed to the commercial deployment of Tesla robotaxis by the end of 2020. Yet, only an advanced “Autopilot” driver-assistance system and a beta version of its “full self-driving” (“FSD”) have been released so far, with the latter being limited to a selective group of users that have metspecific driving behaviour requirements. Meanwhile, others in the race to autonomous mobility, including Alphabet’s Waymo, GM’s Cruise, and Intel’s Mobileye, have already launched, or slated to launch within the next 12 months, pilot programs across the U.S., Europe and Israel. The delays have been further exacerbated by increasing regulatory scrutiny over the safety and effectiveness of Tesla’s self-driving technology. In the latest turn of events regarding the NHTSA’s ongoing probe on whether Tesla’s Autopilot is defective following reports of multiple crashes involving emergency vehicles, the regulatory agency has demanded a legal and technical explanation from the EV maker on how and why an over-the-air update is sufficient to patch the fix as opposed to a recall. The NHTSA currently requires an official recall notice be filed to the agency by automakers looking to patch over-the-air updates as a mean to mitigate software defects that could pose a risk to vehicle safety. Tesla has also been requested by the regulatory body to provide details on its timeline for the commercial roll out of FSD, as well as the list of buyers of the $10,000 add-on service. Considering the series of high profile regulatory scrutiny over Tesla’s full self-driving technology, it remains unclear on how soon the EV maker can achieve its robotaxi aspirations, which makes the extension of even higher valuation prospects a difficult decision to justify at the moment.\nConclusion\nTesla’s stock price is likely to remain elevated in the immediate term as the company’s earnings release for Q3 draws near. Better-than-expected delivery volumes amidst a dire situation across the broader automotive sector due to overhanging supply chain constraints have boosted investors’ expectations for another round of record-setting earnings from Tesla this quarter. Yet, the sentiment is expected to moderate as soon as the actual financial results are out, driving the stock price back towards the high-$700 to $800 level considering it is already being traded at levels as if strong fundamentals have been priced in. As such, our stance remains neutral on the stock ahead of its upcoming release of third quarter results.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":850460351,"gmtCreate":1634617531831,"gmtModify":1634617532086,"author":{"id":"3575197337244742","authorId":"3575197337244742","name":"Dazhu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Will it continue to rise, or drop after earnings?","listText":"Will it continue to rise, or drop after earnings?","text":"Will it continue to rise, or drop after earnings?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850460351","repostId":1122978319,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6250112,"gmtCreate":1634619304741,"gmtModify":1634631595381,"authorId":3566111551860327,"author":{"id":3566111551860327,"authorId":3566111551860327,"name":"Jo5tarz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cdaa131f223c2f17b3669bce62cc05e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":850460351,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"abit of pull back wouldn't hurt 🙃","text":"abit of pull back wouldn't hurt 🙃","html":"abit of pull back wouldn't hurt 🙃"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":850433141,"gmtCreate":1634614570022,"gmtModify":1634614735998,"author":{"id":"4097242955092060","authorId":"4097242955092060","name":"Museigen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64fdd755ede81fd5033abfe57c8a63b6","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850433141","repostId":1122978319,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":850578166,"gmtCreate":1634611918690,"gmtModify":1634611939864,"author":{"id":"3581678664547146","authorId":"3581678664547146","name":"nelson21","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3bfb16048c75dbf023d98c18914333e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850578166","repostId":1122978319,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":850571193,"gmtCreate":1634611848462,"gmtModify":1634611848621,"author":{"id":"3586145401912378","authorId":"3586145401912378","name":"FollWin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8519c8db9252abe3b637d4d01b75e54c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Should buy more of this share now.","listText":"Should buy more of this share now.","text":"Should buy more of this share now.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850571193","repostId":1122978319,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":850573504,"gmtCreate":1634611779656,"gmtModify":1634611784454,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"always a good time&nbsp;","listText":"always a good time&nbsp;","text":"always a good time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850573504","repostId":1122978319,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":47,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.26.2","shortVersion":"4.26.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1122978319"}