Goldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal

zerohedge2021-07-15

Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, gasoline demand in the US unexpectedly tumbled by 760,000 barrels a day from the record 10 million ...

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精彩评论

Cheehow
2021-07-15
Cheehow
Good good good up up up
chansin
2021-07-15
chansin
Shop
- HUATkueh:
  Ok
- chansin:
  like
evauoz
2021-07-15
evauoz
Time to buy oil? Buy buy buy
dho
2021-07-15
dho
Fakenews?
- ElenaM:
  [Smile]
ShuJie
2021-07-15
ShuJie
Wow good
- HMian:
  Good
- HMian:
  [Smile]
lingnh
2021-07-15
lingnh
Wow

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-15 10:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sees-oil-price-spiking-uaeopec-deal><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, gasoline demand in the US unexpectedly tumbled by 760,000 barrels a day from the record 10 million ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sees-oil-price-spiking-uaeopec-deal\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FT_SY_MCL","symbol_name":"微型WTI原油","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sees-oil-price-spiking-uaeopec-deal","article_id":"1122758076","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122758076","pubTimestamp":1626316880,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, ga","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zerohedge.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"高盛认为阿联酋/欧佩克+协议将导致油价飙升","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ae8e904e62ded51bd6d0ba3a693f04","symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"MCLmain":0.9},"content_text":"Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, gasoline demand in the US unexpectedly tumbled by 760,000 barrels a day from the record 10 million barrels a day a week, to 9.28 million barrels a day to get back to levels in late June.\nWhile algos focused on the sharp drop, what they ignored was that the number was largely meaningless, since the reporting week included July 5, a day off for Americans. Additionally, the EIA’s estimate, known as product supplied, is derived from other data rather than being a direct measurement of consumption. Since that method often leads to erratic numbers, some observers prefer to use the 4-week rolling average. That measure was 9.485 million barrels a day, which was about equal to the same week in 2019\nNone of that mattered, however, as CTAs quickly joined in the selling frenzy and completely erasing the earlier jump on the far more important news of an OPEC+ deal.\nJust how important was the Reuters report that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are close to reaching a production agreement, one which sees both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022). Important enough that in a note released late on Wednesday, Goldman said that the deal would remove the low-probability tail risks of potential price war, and \"represents $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.\"\nIn the note from Goldman commodity analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie, the two also write that the expected agreement “as the ﬁrst of likely four potential bullish supply catalysts over the coming month” that would more than offset higher North American production. Additionally, although some OPEC+ details remain uncertain, like August and September quotas or baselines of other countries, “these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook, which the bank continues to see as supportive of higher oil prices”\nPiling on the bullish cash, Courvalin writes that an OPEC+ deal that offers a higher baseline for the UAE, as well as an extension of output agreement through December 2022 - such as the one being contemplated -  would be bullish relative to Goldman’s base case\nAnd speaking of Goldman's forecasts, the bank had assumed a 500kb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17m b/d to 3.3m b/d in August to 3.65m b/d by the end of 1Q 2022. As a result, such a deal would imply downside risk to its OPEC+ production forecast of 400k-600k b/d on average for 3Q 2021-1Q 2022, depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September. Needless to say, that too is bullish for the price of oil... and yet one look at the collapse in oil prices today and one would be left shocked at just how dumb the algos have become.\nFinally, it's not just the UAE/OPEC+ deal that makes Goldman's commodities team hopeful - the bank’s other three potential bullish supply catalysts are listed as:-\n\nUpcoming shale earnings season, which may reaffirm greater incentive toward returning cash to shareholders over production growth\nThat progress on the U.S. reaching an agreement with Iran has stalled, setting back the potential ramp up of exports\nBank’s view that consensus expectations for global production outside of North America and core-OPEC remain too optimistic\n\nBelow we excerpt from the full note:\n\nThe UAE and Saudi Arabia appear close to reaching a production agreement, with Reuters reporting progress towards a deal that would allow for both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022).We assume that the such a deal - if conﬁrmed - would likely come alongside a gradual 0.4 mb/d monthly ramp-up in production through December 2021, as all OPEC+ members had already supported this decision.\nSuch an agreement would help bridge the (modest) divide between both countries andhelp remove the (low probability) OPEC+ tail risks of a potential price war or insufﬁcient production growth, as we expected.While some details remain uncertain, like the August and September quotas or the baseline of other countries, these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook,which we continue to see as supportive of higher oil prices.\nImportantly,such an OPEC+ agreement would be bullish relative to our base-case, as we had assumed (1) a 0.5 mb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as (2) a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17 mb/d to 3.3 mb/d in August to 3.65 mb/d by the end of 1Q22 (given its clear inequity).As a result, a deal as described above wouldimply downside risk to our OPEC+ production forecast of 0.4 to 0.6 mb/d on average for 3Q21-1Q22(depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September).\n\nAll else equal, this would represent $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.As a result, we believe that risks to our bullish oil price forecasts are skewed to the upside, with the catalyst for such a move higher shifting from the demand to the supply side. While our bullish view this year had been driven by our well above consensus demand growth forecast, this is no longer the case with (1) the sharp rebound in global oil demand that has taken place since May, from 95 to 98 mb/d currently and near our 99 mb/d end of summer forecast, mostly played out, with (2) the IEA expecting similar peak summer demand, and with (3) the EM vaccine led demand uplift set to only play out gradually through 1Q22.\nA shift in market focus to the supply will make increasingly evident that the industry’s costs have reset sharply higher, due to (1) poor accumulated returns of the past 5 years, (2) the inﬂationary impact of internalizing carbon emissions and (3) the rising uncertainty and pessimism on long-term oil demand. As a result, we initiate a new trade recommendation to be long Dec-22 Brent forwards, currently trading at $67.06/bbl. This entry point is below our Dec-22 spot forecast of $75/bbl due to backwardation and further offers a proxy trade for a re-setting higher of the oil market’s marginal costs.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":147064461,"gmtCreate":1626321076753,"gmtModify":1631891461301,"author":{"id":"3549668038727602","authorId":"3549668038727602","name":"Cheehow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3e47e5305e34c6968002ff9c31335a","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3549668038727602","authorIdStr":"3549668038727602"},"htmlText":"Good good good up up up","listText":"Good good good up up up","text":"Good good good up up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147064461","repostId":1122758076,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":147017025,"gmtCreate":1626319557667,"gmtModify":1633927889779,"author":{"id":"3571713327164339","authorId":"3571713327164339","name":"chansin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0eb88e173f11f1b4d84ab4e7bf4648b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571713327164339","authorIdStr":"3571713327164339"},"htmlText":"Shop","listText":"Shop","text":"Shop","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147017025","repostId":1122758076,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5225581,"gmtCreate":1626320779077,"gmtModify":1635228837373,"authorId":3572312712757258,"author":{"id":3572312712757258,"idStr":"3572312712757258","authorId":3572312712757258,"name":"HUATkueh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/936c7c3c568dece3e2a6ae1a4510ab73","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":147017025,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":5227114,"gmtCreate":1626336419118,"gmtModify":1635228729259,"authorId":3571713327164339,"author":{"id":3571713327164339,"idStr":"3571713327164339","authorId":3571713327164339,"name":"chansin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0eb88e173f11f1b4d84ab4e7bf4648b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":147017025,"type":1,"supId":5225581,"prevId":0,"content":"like","text":"like","html":"like"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":147038053,"gmtCreate":1626318571672,"gmtModify":1631885481582,"author":{"id":"4087513826666000","authorId":"4087513826666000","name":"evauoz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/280532533b0476328d845887d7308f4d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087513826666000","authorIdStr":"4087513826666000"},"htmlText":"Time to buy oil? Buy buy buy","listText":"Time to buy oil? Buy buy buy","text":"Time to buy oil? Buy buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147038053","repostId":1122758076,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":147030572,"gmtCreate":1626318387396,"gmtModify":1631886270518,"author":{"id":"3571475992036725","authorId":"3571475992036725","name":"dho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91164006b0a9bd189f1043a2804ae141","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571475992036725","authorIdStr":"3571475992036725"},"htmlText":"Fakenews?&nbsp;","listText":"Fakenews?&nbsp;","text":"Fakenews?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147030572","repostId":1122758076,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5225335,"gmtCreate":1626318884844,"gmtModify":1631886270510,"authorId":3584572781964958,"author":{"id":3584572781964958,"idStr":"3584572781964958","authorId":3584572781964958,"name":"ElenaM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff0a5516432035eff4ce07be8b32afb7","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":147030572,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[Smile]","text":"[Smile]","html":"[Smile]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":147096181,"gmtCreate":1626318101743,"gmtModify":1633927906524,"author":{"id":"3580280937765956","authorId":"3580280937765956","name":"ShuJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab78f17f563d835249358a8d127785c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580280937765956","authorIdStr":"3580280937765956"},"htmlText":"Wow good","listText":"Wow good","text":"Wow good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147096181","repostId":1122758076,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5226163,"gmtCreate":1626326083917,"gmtModify":1635228794439,"authorId":3577877222927887,"author":{"id":3577877222927887,"idStr":"3577877222927887","authorId":3577877222927887,"name":"HMian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":147096181,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good","text":"Good","html":"Good"},{"id":5235712,"gmtCreate":1626402303427,"gmtModify":1635228099858,"authorId":3577877222927887,"author":{"id":3577877222927887,"idStr":"3577877222927887","authorId":3577877222927887,"name":"HMian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":147096181,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[Smile]","text":"[Smile]","html":"[Smile]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":147004758,"gmtCreate":1626317882274,"gmtModify":1633927910271,"author":{"id":"4087297789740060","authorId":"4087297789740060","name":"lingnh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087297789740060","authorIdStr":"4087297789740060"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147004758","repostId":1122758076,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":85,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1122758076"}