Is The Stock Market Starting To Discount An Earnings Recession?

The Felder Report2021-10-07

Summary Earnings growth has been terrific over the past several quarters, proving a strong tailwind for stock prices. For astute market watchers, however, this should not come as any surprise. ...

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精彩评论

JeremyKok
2021-10-09
JeremyKok
Limbo week. 1 day have good news it goes up, next day got bad news it goes down. Should we read the news first before we buy stocks? Buy when there is bad news, when the stock you want to buy when it's down even when the news doesn't concern the stock you want to buy
Juanlee
2021-10-08
Juanlee
Supply chain labour shortage and traffic jams at harbours will cause the 3rd quarter business earnings to drop in the October reports, so the market would drift slightly down to finish this year.
Uasbau
2021-10-08
Uasbau
Tailwind & headwind; a paradox?
replaygoh
2021-10-08
replaygoh
good..
- raidou:
  Yes
RICHSG2021
2021-10-08
RICHSG2021
Its about time. And time to accumulate good ones.

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For astute market watchers, however, this should not come as any surprise. The decline in interest rates, oil prices, and the dollar over the past couple of years, in fact, predicted it. As a group, these markets have proven for decades now to be a far better forecaster of S&P 500 earnings growth than any analyst on Wall Street. The chart below plots a composite of these indicators, shifted forward 24 months, against the 12-month change in S&P 500 earnings. The relationship is not perfect but generally gets the trend right.\n\nWith inflation pressures continuing to rise even as record amounts of fiscal stimulus begin to wear off and the economy clearly slows, however, an earnings recession over the next several quarters should also come as no surprise. In fact, that is exactly what the recent action in interest rates, oil prices, and the dollar now point to. Considering valuations aremore extreme than ever beforeand investors are alsomore highly leveraged than any other time in the past, a shifting in this fundamental driver of stock prices from tailwind to headwind should be something investors pay close attention to.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":821638343,"gmtCreate":1633738743693,"gmtModify":1633738748755,"author":{"id":"3567307840510045","authorId":"3567307840510045","name":"JeremyKok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b03a485f83b6b2615fad8ac9b87bf4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3567307840510045","idStr":"3567307840510045"},"htmlText":"Limbo week. 1 day have good news it goes up, next day got bad news it goes down. Should we read the news first before we buy stocks? Buy when there is bad news,&nbsp;when the stock you want to buy when it's down even when the news doesn't concern the stock you want to buy","listText":"Limbo week. 1 day have good news it goes up, next day got bad news it goes down. Should we read the news first before we buy stocks? Buy when there is bad news,&nbsp;when the stock you want to buy when it's down even when the news doesn't concern the stock you want to buy","text":"Limbo week. 1 day have good news it goes up, next day got bad news it goes down. Should we read the news first before we buy stocks? Buy when there is bad news, when the stock you want to buy when it's down even when the news doesn't concern the stock you want to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821638343","repostId":1122483864,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":823765488,"gmtCreate":1633663479192,"gmtModify":1633663479304,"author":{"id":"3553595575003751","authorId":"3553595575003751","name":"Juanlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbf36c4a5cfcee186a3187df34efc7f9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3553595575003751","idStr":"3553595575003751"},"htmlText":"Supply chain labour shortage and traffic&nbsp;jams at harbours&nbsp; will cause the 3rd quarter&nbsp; business earnings to drop in the October reports, so the market would drift slightly down to finish this year.","listText":"Supply chain labour shortage and traffic&nbsp;jams at harbours&nbsp; will cause the 3rd quarter&nbsp; business earnings to drop in the October reports, so the market would drift slightly down to finish this year.","text":"Supply chain labour shortage and traffic jams at harbours will cause the 3rd quarter business earnings to drop in the October reports, so the market would drift slightly down to finish this year.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823765488","repostId":1122483864,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":823594980,"gmtCreate":1633647445995,"gmtModify":1633647446537,"author":{"id":"3581724772671504","authorId":"3581724772671504","name":"Uasbau","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cdf409f2239595269918513a5faac9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581724772671504","idStr":"3581724772671504"},"htmlText":"Tailwind &amp; headwind; a paradox?","listText":"Tailwind &amp; headwind; a paradox?","text":"Tailwind & headwind; a paradox?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823594980","repostId":1122483864,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":823258754,"gmtCreate":1633643696659,"gmtModify":1633643697707,"author":{"id":"3582963095283492","authorId":"3582963095283492","name":"replaygoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d47b21291424a3d55039334a8de5cdb9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582963095283492","idStr":"3582963095283492"},"htmlText":"good..","listText":"good..","text":"good..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823258754","repostId":1122483864,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6125397,"gmtCreate":1633644856151,"gmtModify":1634719255120,"authorId":3572914809308233,"author":{"id":3572914809308233,"idStr":"3572914809308233","authorId":3572914809308233,"name":"raidou","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d897c7c5c5ab650d7cee80180e68677f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":823258754,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Yes</u>","text":"<u>Yes</u>","html":"<u>Yes</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":823262033,"gmtCreate":1633640276154,"gmtModify":1633640276300,"author":{"id":"4089003739432960","authorId":"4089003739432960","name":"RICHSG2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd874826d817a4e6c7f5dbfa5c3e3a0","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4089003739432960","idStr":"4089003739432960"},"htmlText":"Its about time. And time to accumulate good ones.&nbsp;","listText":"Its about time. And time to accumulate good ones.&nbsp;","text":"Its about time. And time to accumulate good ones.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823262033","repostId":1122483864,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":241,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1122483864"}