One Bank's Non-Transitory Inflation Meter Just Exploded

zerohedge2021-07-16

One month ago we reported that Bank of America had released a new proprietary indicator tracking the level of transitory inflation, which incidentally was at the highest possible reading of 100. Of ...

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精彩评论

YTRT
2021-07-16
YTRT
Good
Gaik11
2021-07-16
Gaik11
Okay will follow closely
- Gaik11:
  Ok
- Janiceng888:
  Good
- Janiceng888:
  Good
- Matt_cjx:
  Ok
cxseah
2021-07-16
cxseah
Like please
- Arnoldy:
  Like pls
- Gracejul:
  Done
pangspurs
2021-07-16
pangspurs
Omg
Jeslynlee
2021-07-16
Jeslynlee
Like and comment plss
- tj1888:
  comment
Jamesyong
2021-07-16
Jamesyong
power

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Used cars, new cars, lodging, and transportation services together accounted for 70bp of the 88bp increase in broader core CPI as discussed previously. As a result, core CPI surged 0.9% mom in June: these components primarily reflected the price pressures from goods shortages and the reopening. To no surprise, the BofA US transitory inflation meter (TIM) remained at 100 this month, because it simply couldn't rise any further.\nBut while the transitory strength in inflation took the spotlight, another development in the June CPI report - which we had discussedextensively before- was a strong 0.32% increase in owners’ equivalent rent (OER) which is a far stickier source of inflation and whichGoldman sees hitting 4% around the end of 2022.\n\nIn other words, persistent inflation looks to be rising sharply as well.\nThis, as Bank of America economist Alex Lin writes today, highlights the importance of being able to track persistent inflation while keeping transitory inflation in perspective.\nSo to get a more complete picture of current inflation dynamics, BofA has revised its transitory inflation meter with the BofA US Persistent Inflation Meter (PIM), and here, a shock:it soared to 75 in June from 37 in May, indicating elevatedpersistent, as in non-transitory,  inflation.\n\nThis confirms that contrary to its best wishes, the Fed already has a major headache on its hands. 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