Bitcoin And The 2000 Technology Bubble Have A Lot In Common

seekingalpha2021-06-23

Summary Bitcoin has many similarities to the speculative nature of the stock market of the late 1990s. There's nothing fundamental about Bitcoin to anchor its valuation. The technicals suggest it ...

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精彩评论

JiaXinQuah
2021-06-24
JiaXinQuah
To the moon
Janenkea
2021-06-24
Janenkea
Crypto will recover
tothemooon
2021-06-24
tothemooon
haters gonna hate
Eded
2021-06-24
Eded
Haha lessons always learnt from mistakes
IMRainmaker
2021-06-24
IMRainmaker
Bubble on the way
Howieeeee
2021-06-24
Howieeeee
Wow

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The cryptocurrency has been trading in a range between 30,000 and 40,000 over the past few weeks. That volatility may only persist as it tests key levels of technical support.\nThere are plenty of reasons for the recent weakness. China is cracking down on bitcoin mining operations. In addition, the country has told banks and payment services to stop supporting digital currency transactions. This comes on top of the potential for regulatory risk in the US and the potential environmental damages mining for bitcoin creates.\nNo Anchor\nOn top of external factors that seem to be creating volatility in Bitcoin, investors need to wonder about its stability and whether or not it can act as a hedge against the dollar, and what a stronger dollar may mean. To this point, Bitcoin has been anything but stable and anything but a hedge against the dollar or any investment for that matter.\nThe big swings, higher or massive losses, reflect that of a highly speculative asset class. The big swings are because there's nothing to anchor Bitcoin to since there's an absence of anything that even remotely appears to be fundamental to make it an attractive option versus another asset class.\nBubble\nBitcoin has many similarities to that of speculative bubbles in the past. For example, the most recent one is the technology bubble of the late 1990s. All a company had to do was add a dot.com to the end of their corporate name or say they were launching a website. This would send the stock soaring, even though there was nothing fundamental that actually change.\nBack then, investors came up with all sorts of ingenious ways how to value some of these dot.com stocks. Even though some of those valuations made no sense, there was something to show how one could arrive at that valuation. Investors could look to extrapolate cash flow or the potential revenue and earnings growth. At least there was something because the company either created something or had something of value to sell.\nWith Bitcoin, there seems to be plenty of reason why the crypto can rise, but very little to support some of these far-fetched valuations. Bitcoin produces nothing, clearly has no store of value or stability, and offers no dividend. There is no revenue, no cash flow, nothing. At least in the speculative technology bubble of the late 1990s, even though the valuation was a stretch, an investor could decide if they agreed or disagreed with the analysis. Bitcoin offers investors no such way to do that.\nTechnicals\nThe only thing an investor is left with are technical charts, and those continue to look really weak. It's currently testing support around 30,000 and is likely heading even lower to complete a 5 wave cycle. Based on a projection of this 5 wave counted, Bitcoin is likely heading toward 16,300. Additionally, the relative strength index is falling, suggesting the bulls have no control over it at this point. Even the MACD is showing a downward sloping trend line as well. This is also a big negative.\n\nA log chart of Bitcoin also shows that it's breaking down, with Bitcoin falling below an uptrend that started in March2020. This also shows that once support at 30,000 breaks, it could send Bitcoin to around 19,000.\n\nBitcoin has had an impressive run, but perhaps, speculators finally realize the trade is over.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":128349576,"gmtCreate":1624503163995,"gmtModify":1631892142188,"author":{"id":"3566379110750623","authorId":"3566379110750623","name":"JiaXinQuah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14c9c00d447438791324d9f268a48407","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566379110750623","authorIdStr":"3566379110750623"},"htmlText":"To the moon","listText":"To the moon","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128349576","repostId":1121798334,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":128931566,"gmtCreate":1624497541355,"gmtModify":1634005271694,"author":{"id":"3574751332519170","authorId":"3574751332519170","name":"Janenkea","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/328bf689e0e4be71a26c7d798d76b511","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574751332519170","authorIdStr":"3574751332519170"},"htmlText":"Crypto will recover","listText":"Crypto will recover","text":"Crypto will recover","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128931566","repostId":1121798334,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":121775707,"gmtCreate":1624494224009,"gmtModify":1634005384679,"author":{"id":"3587087847014310","authorId":"3587087847014310","name":"tothemooon","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3587087847014310","authorIdStr":"3587087847014310"},"htmlText":"haters gonna hate","listText":"haters gonna hate","text":"haters gonna hate","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121775707","repostId":1121798334,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":121752896,"gmtCreate":1624493535915,"gmtModify":1634005403914,"author":{"id":"3581980965309451","authorId":"3581980965309451","name":"Eded","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a629a3014601072ee8dc2d151d1796","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581980965309451","authorIdStr":"3581980965309451"},"htmlText":"Haha lessons always learnt from mistakes&nbsp;","listText":"Haha lessons always learnt from mistakes&nbsp;","text":"Haha lessons always learnt from mistakes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121752896","repostId":1121798334,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":121477141,"gmtCreate":1624491280383,"gmtModify":1634005473192,"author":{"id":"4087437757420620","authorId":"4087437757420620","name":"IMRainmaker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18fb455bb4d6638a7868eb281bc37d7c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087437757420620","authorIdStr":"4087437757420620"},"htmlText":"Bubble on the way","listText":"Bubble on the way","text":"Bubble on the way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121477141","repostId":1121798334,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":121480522,"gmtCreate":1624489288066,"gmtModify":1634005527564,"author":{"id":"3584469948955778","authorId":"3584469948955778","name":"Howieeeee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f51b6124021500180f9677882316952","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584469948955778","authorIdStr":"3584469948955778"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121480522","repostId":1121798334,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":74,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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