Tightening labor market could be a ‘real issue’ for markets, strategist warns

cnbc2021-06-23

KEY POINTS Recent JOLTs data put U.S. job openings in April at a record 9.3 million, but this is running alongside persistent unemployment and subdued hiring rates. The labor shortage has forced some...

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精彩评论

limpeh
2021-06-23
limpeh
True thar
SingLee
2021-06-23
SingLee
Nice
BpchuA
2021-06-23
BpchuA
Cool
- VickJW:
  true
Felixpow
2021-06-23
Felixpow
Exactly
DLiew
2021-06-23
DLiew
Like and comment
- Timtan85:
  Liked comment
- Meleelittle:
  Comment
- Felixpow:
  Yes
- KGS:
  Please like and comment. Thanks
- DLiew:
  👍🏼

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Themost recent jobless claims datashowed a surprise jump during the week ended June 12, despite vacancies continuing to surge as the economy reopens.\nCorporations have also publicly decried a shortage of available workers, citing child-care issues, ongoing fears about the pandemic and the lure of enhanced unemployment benefits due to government stimulus programs.\nThe labor shortage has forced some companies to raise wages and offer more attractive bonuses, and prompted some state officials to declare an early end to enhanced unemployment benefits.\nSpeaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday, Watling suggested that the labor market would continue to tighten and could “upset the apple cart”as far as the Federal Reserve’s commitment to its accommodative monetary policy stance goes.\n“This is a shock we are coming out of, not a recession. The scarring that we had in the recession post-financial crisis is not going to be the issue today,” he said, arguing that the key question will be whether inflation continues to run hot and causes the Fed to change course.\nThecentral bank recently upped its inflation outlookand brought forward its interest rate hike schedule, now projecting two hikes in 2023, as inflation runs at multi-decade highs.\n“At the moment they seem pretty resolute on sticking the course — looser for longer, looser than they have ever been — and maintaining that liquidity as much as they can, and being very very slow to withdraw it,” Watling said.\n“Anything that upsets that apple cart, and the labor market is a possible candidate, is a real issue I think for financial markets in the medium term, given the sort of valuation metrics that we have there.”\nLabor force participation rate recovery\nIn a note to investors Monday, Goldman Sachs said it expects the labor force participation rate to recover more quickly in the coming months as unemployment insurance benefits expire. However, Goldman economist Joseph Briggs suggested it is unlikely to retrace the 1.8 percentage point decline since the start of the pandemic.\nThe LFPR is a measure of the economy’s active workforce, charting the proportion of those employed or actively seeking employment within the total non-institutionalized population.\n“Early retirements have depressed the LFPR by about 0.5pp, adding to the roughly 0.2pp structural drag from population aging since the pandemic began, and these exits will likely prove permanent,” Briggs said.\n“But the good news is that most labor force exits by prime-age and younger workers, currently a 0.6pp drag on the LFPR, look temporary. The share of these workers who say they don’t want a job is fairly modest, and most labor force exiters who want a job haven’t searched recently, suggesting that they will reenter once temporary disincentives to work disappear.”\nGoldman expects the LFPR to rise from 61.6% in May to a peak of 62.6% by the end of 2022, 0.8 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level.\nBriggs also noted that a collapse of immigration had reduced the labor force by an additional 750,000 workers, of which Goldman expects a 300,000 drag to endure.\n“After adding this immigration hit to other drags, we estimate the labor force will remain over 1.2mn workers below trend by the end of 2022,” Briggs 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