Can U.S. Stock Indices Still Go Higher?

seekingalpha2021-04-25

Summary Markets can go higher, and likely will. But for traders, a focus on trading each fractal with a clear plan and risk management is the way to log consistent profits. Investors need to identify...

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精彩评论

pet
2021-04-26
pet
Hope so.
Sabrina Tsai
2021-04-25
Sabrina Tsai
Hope can go higher [Miser]
Alice156
2021-04-25
Alice156
Ok
727972bd
2021-04-25
727972bd
Yes
川姐
2021-04-25
川姐
Ok
Footixx
2021-04-25
Footixx
Yes!! 😊

发表看法

109

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But for traders, a focus on trading each fractal with a clear plan and risk management is the way to log consistent profits.\nInvestors need to identify...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420930-can-us-stock-indices-still-go-higher\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420930-can-us-stock-indices-still-go-higher","article_id":"1120497033","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120497033","pubTimestamp":1619322584,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nMarkets can go higher, and likely will. But for traders, a focus on trading each fractal wi","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"美股指数还能走高吗？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nMarkets can go higher, and likely will. But for traders, a focus on trading each fractal with a clear plan and risk management is the way to log consistent profits.\nInvestors need to identify the key areas to reduce risk exposure and re-enter on the pullbacks.\nHave a written trading plan, and focus on cumulative returns over time.\n\nPhoto by Tim Boyle/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nUS Stock Indices have seen unprecedented gains since the lows back in March 2020. The moves down into those lows from the highs barely one month earlier in February 2020 were the fastest on record, yet just over one year later and against a back drop of a global pandemic the US markets are seeing consistently higher then higher new all time highs. Put call ratios, price earnings ratios and a host of other metrics are regularly touted across social media platforms as being at or beyond levels where we \"should\" see markets reverse yet prices stubbornly refuse to \"do the obvious\" by moving lower and appear immune to the fears and trepidations of the wounded and howling bears while the bulls point to the improving unemployment numbers, retail sales figures and economies reopening coupled with the extraordinary actions of the Federal Reserve.\n\nIn the past five months since November 2020 inflows into stock funds have totaled $569 billion. In the prior 12 years total inflows were $452 billion. Once again the more contrarian view of this statistic would be an argument for the bears while the more obvious inference the one adopted by the bulls.\n\nOn 25th March this year we learned that a large hedge fund, Archegos, was in trouble and being unwound. As this fund traded on swaps Archegos brokers essentially held shares on their behalf thus the failure resulted in several major institutions facing huge potential losses. On the assumption that much of the overall long exposure of these institutions was likely hedged and considering the 5% gain seen in the S&P 500 Index since the beginning of April the Archegos unwinding is likely been/is a contributory factor to an already traditionally seasonally bullish month.\n\nOn Friday (16th April 2021) the SPX closed at 4185, up on the session thus making that 15 of the last 16 sessions to close out with net gains. Friday was also the Monthly Options Expiry and the volume of expiring contracts was large and more in line with those expected for a quarterly or \"triple witching\" expiration.\n\nTurning to a more technical approach our Cycles work suggests that we should be expecting a move lower into late June/early July. Looking at our Elliott Wave and Fibonacci analysis we are expecting that move lower to materialize but likely after we see further highs although those should be following a small pullback into support in the near term.\nThis is the most recent analysis posted to members in our Forum relating to the ES Mini.\n\nThe ES looks to have completed a complex Primary Degree Wave 4 at the low seen in March 2020. The final drop into that low from the February 2020 high was the fastest recorded drop of this magnitude.\n\n\nThe move up from the March 2020 counts best in threes so a diagonal formation. The ES has exceeded the February 2020 high which has opened up the possibility that this fractal is in fact an ending rather than leading diagonal either as the final Intermediate Degree Wave (5) of the Primary Degree Wave 3 off the March 2009 lows OR in fact as all of the Primary Degree Wave 5 off that low. Again, for the purpose of analysis I am currently running with the thesis that this is a leading diagonal for the Intermediate Degree wave (1) of a much larger Primary Degree Wave 5 off the March 2020 low and that after a pullback in what would then be an Intermediate Degree Wave (2) we will see the US Indices subdivide much higher over the coming few years before a considerably deeper move to the downside is upon us.\n\n\nThe ES put in a local high back in September to complete the Minute Degree Wave a of Minor Degree Wave 3 then pulled back in three waves into the low on 31st October 2020 completing the Minute Degree Wave C. The move up off that October low again counts best in 3's thus we are likely seeing an ending diagonal for the Minute Degree Wave C of Minor Degree Wave 3. Support is now at 4070 - 4122 ES (June Contract Basis). Levels to watch above are 4206 then 4258.\n\n\nAt this point and particularly given the pattern off the March 5th 2021 low it is sensible to consider the path, targets and key support levels should we simply continue higher from here. On the smaller time frames (120 Minute down through 5 Minute) this is actually surprisingly simple. Key immediate support is at 4150/52 ES and below that 4086 - 4110. It would take a break back below 4045 to start to consider this count then breaking down which is interesting as that is where the current Gamma Zero/Neutral level resides.\n\n\nWe started to see the ES pullback following a 20 Minute & 120 Minute cRSi sell signal towards the end of Fridays session which will likely see the ES continue lower during the coming week. Expecting to see the upper support levels hold followed by further highs to at least 4258 area in the diagonal count and ultimately to the 4395 level or higher in the more immediately bullish impulse count off the March 2020 lows. In either count this would then complete either an Intermediate Degree Wave (1) of a Primary Degree Wave 5 OR possibly all of an Intermediate Degree Wave (5) of the Primary Degree Wave 3 in which case we will likely re visit last years lows rather than holding a retrace as shown in the Daily Chart.\"\n\n\nTrading wise we banked profits on our most recent swing long position entered on 25th March 2021 following a 120 Minute cRSi Cycle sell signal back on the 8th April for an additional 17.62% gain in SPXL this year bringing the compound gains since the start of 2021 to 98%. We are now looking to take another swing long position after a pullback into support should we see the requisite cRSi buy signal after a cycle bottom and preferably supported by a squeeze indicator buy signal on the 120 Minute time frame.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":375490334,"gmtCreate":1619387559628,"gmtModify":1631884328995,"author":{"id":"3574914454410809","authorId":"3574914454410809","name":"pet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8bb8cf9a25355b93399ce59a269665b","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574914454410809","authorIdStr":"3574914454410809"},"htmlText":"Hope so.&nbsp;","listText":"Hope so.&nbsp;","text":"Hope so.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375490334","repostId":1120497033,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375203389,"gmtCreate":1619341061141,"gmtModify":1631884329020,"author":{"id":"3577002673774117","authorId":"3577002673774117","name":"Sabrina Tsai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fcae4177a6030cd7a1818cf4ba4a9b","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577002673774117","authorIdStr":"3577002673774117"},"htmlText":"Hope can go higher [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Hope can go higher [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Hope can go higher [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375203389","repostId":1120497033,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375660703,"gmtCreate":1619333367502,"gmtModify":1634274150068,"author":{"id":"3568349626879479","authorId":"3568349626879479","name":"Alice156","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ff94c21a2d26f4682ac8ed41af2e37","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568349626879479","authorIdStr":"3568349626879479"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375660703","repostId":1120497033,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375612245,"gmtCreate":1619331821387,"gmtModify":1634274161002,"author":{"id":"3563951615882018","authorId":"3563951615882018","name":"727972bd","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563951615882018","authorIdStr":"3563951615882018"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;Yes","listText":"&nbsp;Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375612245","repostId":1120497033,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375613645,"gmtCreate":1619331475187,"gmtModify":1631893298485,"author":{"id":"3572316149124317","authorId":"3572316149124317","name":"川姐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a87e149cd4b977f188b8ae3cb01bd8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572316149124317","authorIdStr":"3572316149124317"},"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375613645","repostId":1120497033,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375690221,"gmtCreate":1619329224763,"gmtModify":1634274182049,"author":{"id":"3572228950547010","authorId":"3572228950547010","name":"Footixx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/286a694c51da40f13325f2f7cd6b8851","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572228950547010","authorIdStr":"3572228950547010"},"htmlText":"Yes!! 😊","listText":"Yes!! 😊","text":"Yes!! 😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375690221","repostId":1120497033,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":109,"commentSize":35,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1120497033"}