6月流动性前瞻：最宽松已过，波动率上升

雪涛宏观笔记2021-06-07

5月流动性超预期宽松，低超储率和宽松流动性共存，主要原因是超储率评估流动性的传统框架不够完善，需要纳入流动性需求和非银行为考量。展望6月，流动性需求明显增加，低超储率意味着大概率出现流动性缺口。当前金融稳定在货币政策目标中享有较高权重，预计央行将加大投放力度，流动性价格中枢基本稳定或小幅上移，资金面波动加大。稳定窗口期内出现资金缺口意味着流动性最宽松的阶段将告一段落。 5月银行间流动性整体维持...

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精彩评论

馒头卡喉咙啦
2021-06-08
馒头卡喉咙啦
紧
Yucy_TG_Mini
2021-06-08
Yucy_TG_Mini
最宽松的5月大家都过得心惊肉跳的
YongGuang
2021-06-08
YongGuang
来，回复和点赞
- YongGuang:
  赞
- Yucy_TG_Mini:
  赞赞
CKWAI
2021-06-08
CKWAI
来，回复和点赞，谢谢
- CKWAI:
  谢谢
SunnyLeo
2021-06-08
SunnyLeo
还是偏稳的吧……
- SunnyLeo:
  [微笑][微笑]
- 阿麦小乔:
  [财迷]
高明兴_8399
2021-06-08
高明兴_8399
会加息吗？

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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7YiOhoFLZdf1Qr9lt6ieQA><strong>雪涛宏观笔记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5月流动性超预期宽松，低超储率和宽松流动性共存，主要原因是超储率评估流动性的传统框架不够完善，需要纳入流动性需求和非银行为考量。展望6月，流动性需求明显增加，低超储率意味着大概率出现流动性缺口。当前金融稳定在货币政策目标中享有较高权重，预计央行将加大投放力度，流动性价格中枢基本稳定或小幅上移，资金面波动加大。稳定窗口期内出现资金缺口意味着流动性最宽松的阶段将告一段落。\n\n5月银行间流动性整体维持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7YiOhoFLZdf1Qr9lt6ieQA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"399001","symbol_name":"深证成指","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7YiOhoFLZdf1Qr9lt6ieQA","article_id":"1120446587","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120446587","pubTimestamp":1623043231,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"xthgbj","name":"雪涛宏观笔记"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"5月流动性超预期宽松，低超储率和宽松流动性共存，主要原因是超储率评估流动性的传统框架不够完善，需要纳入流动性需求和非银行为考量。展望6月，流动性需求明显增加，低超储率意味着大概率出现流动性缺口。当前金","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"translate_title":"Liquidity Outlook in June: The loosest has passed and volatility has risen","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b559ba98d8c3641abdad2330c248cb7f","symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9},"content_text":"5月流动性超预期宽松，低超储率和宽松流动性共存，主要原因是超储率评估流动性的传统框架不够完善，需要纳入流动性需求和非银行为考量。展望6月，流动性需求明显增加，低超储率意味着大概率出现流动性缺口。当前金融稳定在货币政策目标中享有较高权重，预计央行将加大投放力度，流动性价格中枢基本稳定或小幅上移，资金面波动加大。稳定窗口期内出现资金缺口意味着流动性最宽松的阶段将告一段落。\n\n5月银行间流动性整体维持宽松，全月DR007中枢低于政策利率8BP，与4月基本持平；1年期AAA同业存单利率中枢低于政策利率7BP，较4月回落10BP。5月流动性超预期宽松，很大程度上得益于地方债发行缓慢，但估算5月底超储率已经降至0.9%左右，出现了低超储率和宽松流动性共存的局面。究其原因，主要是超储率评估流动性的传统框架不够完善（并不是不对），需要纳入流动性需求和非银行为等因素综合考量。\n展望6月，多方面因素推动流动性需求明显增加，低超储率（低流动性供给）意味着大概率出现流动性缺口。考虑到当前金融稳定在货币政策目标中享有较高权重，预计央行后续将加大公开市场投放力度，流动性价格中枢基本稳定或小幅上移，资金面波动可能有所加大。在稳定窗口期内出现资金缺口，意味着流动性最宽松的阶段将告一段落。\n一、5月低超储率和宽松流动性共存——超储率评估流动性的合理性和不足\n3月1日至今，央行连续3个月公开市场零投放，银行超储率逐渐走低。估算超储率3月1.5%、4月1.2%，均高于近年同期水平（20年除外），对应无流动性缺口，央行零投放不影响流动性宽松。但5月的情况有所不同，估算超储率可能已经降至0.9%左右，从历史同期看属于较低水平；从去年经验看，非季末月份超储率处于1.1%附近时流动性已经是紧平衡状态，这与5月流动性整体偏松的现实不太相符。\n\n如何理解近期超储率与流动性的联动弱化？我们给出三点思考：\n第一，银行作为流动性供给的主要来源，参考超储率评估流动性在多数情况下是合理的。将超储率进行HP滤波，将周期项做季节性调整，可见超储率的周期性变化与央行扩表速度明显负相关。历史上我国央行扩表加快指向货币收紧、减慢指向货币宽松（近年稍有变化），可见超储率可以准确反映货币政策取向。2016年以来，由于基础货币投放渠道的系统性变化，央行对货币市场利率的控制力逐渐提高，超储率与流动性的相关性进一步强化。\n\n第二，银行合意超储率长期趋于回落，但近年回落速度明显放缓，不是造成近期低超储率和宽松流动性共存的主要原因。HP滤波后可见超储率的趋势项长期趋于回落，这与支付体系现代化缩短资金清算占用时间、融资渠道拓展降低预防性需求、银行流动性管理和精细化程度提高等有关（详见央行17Q2《货币政策执行报告》），结果是银行的合意超储率水平逐渐降低。不过近年合意超储率的回落速度明显放缓，最近三年累计仅回落0.035%，不是造成近期低超储率和宽松流动性共存的主要原因。\n\n第三，单独参照银行超储率评估流动性的方法不够完整。主要缺陷在于两方面：一是银行超储率主要反映流动性供给水平，没有考虑流动性需求的影响；二是银行超储率主要反映来自银行的流动性供给水平，没有考虑非银的状态。举例来说，如果金融机构杠杆偏好下降/非银机构流动性储备充足，则在相同的银行超储率水平下，流动性价格可能更低。因此，需要将流动性需求和非银流动性储备纳入框架进行综合考量。\n二、5月流动性宽松的原因是需求弱：地方发债需求——缓慢、非银流动性——充裕、杠杆偏好——不强\n第一，5月地方政府债券发行缓慢，流动性需求低于预期。\n1-5月，地方新增专项债发行仅5840亿，占全年额度3.65万亿的16%；相比之下，2019和2020年的同期进度为39.8%、59.7%。新增一般债的发行进度高于专项债，但也稍慢于19-20年同期。总的来看，5月地方债发行规模既低于市场预期，也低于地方披露规模。\n发债缓慢的直接原因是相关部委收紧了审核条件，根本原因则是在稳增长压力不大的背景下，地方政府举债条件有所收紧。实际上，收紧的不只是预算内债务，3月15日国常会提出“政府部门杠杆率要有所降低”，意味着今年广义政府债务增速要明显下降。\n作为风险对冲，再融资债券的发行条件有所放宽。历史上，再融资债券仅用来置换到期的地方政府债券本金，而从去年年底开始，已经可以部分用来偿还地方政府存量债务，相当于将再融资范围从预算内债务扩大到了广义政府债务。1-5月，再融资债券发行规模达到1.6万亿，可能反映了这段时间的政策导向：稳增长压力小所以不急于发新增债券，但当前也尽量不要暴露风险，稳妥化解存量债务。\n\n第二，非银机构的流动性储备充足，流动性需求弱，配置需求强。\n受权益市场波动、实体投资需求减弱等影响，今年货币基金规模大幅增长，去年12月以来已经增长1.8万亿。这带来两种效应：一是非银本身的流动性储备比较充足，1-4月非银存款累计大幅增长1.7万亿，是2018年以来的最高值，减弱了非银的流动性需求，R007与DR007之差处于历史低位；二是货基扩张提升了非银对存单的配置需求，补充了银行的中长期负债，推动存单利率下行的同时稳定了银行负债预期。\n\n第三，金融机构的杠杆偏好不高，资金价格相对稳定。\n1月中下旬流动性一度大幅波动，打破了去年11月永煤事件之后的宽松预期。也因此，虽然春节至今流动性重新回到相对宽松的水平，金融机构加杠杆的意愿比较有限。用每月银行间质押式回购的日均成交量和债券托管量之比衡量债券市场的杠杆意愿，今年1月之后始终处于较低水平，3月以来的流动性宽松也基本没有提高杠杆意愿。在此背景下，稍微偏低的超储率也没有引发资金价格的明显提升，4-5月的流动性宽松处于相对稳定的状态。\n\n三、6月前瞻：流动性大概率出现缺口，短期明显收紧概率不大，但要警惕资金面波动放大\n6月银行间大概率会出现流动性缺口，5月超储率已降至较低水平是一个基础，对应了流动性供给有限；需求方面有三个因素将推升流动性需求：\n一是政府债券继续发行。虽然地方债券发行缓慢，但发行的过程没有停止。目前6月地方政府新增债券发行计划合计近4600亿，由于部分地方没有披露，全国的发行计划规模应高于这一水平。因此即便是实际发行规模继续低于发行计划，也应在4500亿以上。再加上国债发行和5月地方债计划发行但实际未发行部分，政府债券净融资可能在6500亿左右。\n对于下半年，假设国债足额发行，如果今年地方债全年发行预算新增额度的80%，则下半年政府债券的月均供给量为7300亿；如果发行90%，则月均供给为8100亿；如果发行100%，则月均供给为8800亿。\n\n二是银行面临半年度MPA考核。由于银行面临季度、半年度、年度考核压力，每个季度末的合意超储率都会季节性上升，其中12月和6月的超储率最高，3月和9月其次，其余非季末月份最低。2015年以来6月底超储率均值为1.9%，最低的是2017年的1.4%。今年即使按照近年最低的1.3%估算，比5月的0.9%也有一定差距。按照当前接近200万亿的缴准基数，大约是8000亿的短期流动性需求。\n三是缴税缴准等短期流动性需求。季度末银行有冲存款行为，导致缴准规模较大，6月估计在3000亿左右。以上对应的流动性需求合计接近1.8万亿。\n还有一些因素会对流动性供给形成补充，最主要的是财政支出，6月历来是支出大月，财政资金投放规模可能略高于1万亿。至于外汇占款，考虑到央行近期提高了外汇存款法定准备金率，尚没有看到央行明显增加外汇占款投放以吸纳外汇的迹象。\n非银机构的流动性储备还将继续平抑其流动性需求，同时还可能对银行间流动性形成一定补充，但以非银的体量直接弥合流动性缺口的难度比较大。今年2-5月非银增持存单1.2万亿，月均3000亿，对银行负债的净增量贡献应低于这个水平。另外，近期权益市场风险偏好有所改善，实体部门的货基和理财配置需求可能边际放缓。MPA考核和政府债券发行将切实提高6月银行自身的流动性需求，当前不到1%的超储率难以提供足够的流动性供给。\n综上，预计6月的流动性供需缺口大约在6000亿，加上6月15日MLF到期2000亿，合计约8000亿。如果考虑非银的流动性储备，实际缺口可能稍偏低，但不足以完全弥合。\n\n因此，6月的流动性缺口大概率需要通过央行公开市场净投放来弥合，加大逆回购投放量和MLF超额续作是预期内的主要手段。\n流动性缺口不意味着资金面必然收紧，根本上取决于央行的政策意图和投放力度。6月正处于资金面和金融稳定的窗口期，金融稳定在政策目标中享有较高权重。因此，短期内央行主动引导流动性明显收紧的概率不大，后续将加大公开市场操作力度，结果是DR007反映的存款类机构流动性价格中枢基本稳定或小幅上行，波动率可能有所上升，R007相比之下更平稳。时点上，央行不加大投放意味着流动性缺口尚不明显，加大投放力度反而说明缺口出现，届时资金面波动可能有所加大，流动性最宽松的阶段也将随之告一段落。\n风险提示\n流动性缺口低于估算水平；央行投放力度超预期/低于预期；地方债发行提速","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":117996098,"gmtCreate":1623112568314,"gmtModify":1631893505082,"author":{"id":"3576125208282503","authorId":"3576125208282503","name":"馒头卡喉咙啦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3661a8bd6543d698929e7f6942179db","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"紧","listText":"紧","text":"紧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117996098","repostId":1120446587,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":117049496,"gmtCreate":1623111448115,"gmtModify":1634036897127,"author":{"id":"3579390342643959","authorId":"3579390342643959","name":"Yucy_TG_Mini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/229ce2f597d1d8482ba0e89e0cbef80b",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