美联储转向，降息提前？中金：还有变数！

华尔街见闻2023-12-14

鸽派基调强烈的今年最后一届FOMC会议落幕，美联储已经实质上表态加息终结，联储主席鲍威尔甚至直接喊出降息“已逐渐进入视野”。市场为之欢呼。10年美债快速降至4%，美元下跌，美股和黄金大涨。利率期货隐含3月开始全年降息6次。回顾刚刚结束的FOMC会议，中金刘刚团队（海外团队）总结称，本次政策会议传递出三大信号：1. “官宣”加息周期结束。会议声明措辞小幅调整，从此前的“决定后续进一步的加息幅度”（...

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精彩评论

George__7684
2023-12-14
George__7684
快跑
看一眼
2023-12-14
看一眼
中金的话还能听吗？
喵呜喵
2023-12-14
喵呜喵
嗯，恶意做多美股，善意做空癌股
歌德啊啊
2023-12-14
歌德啊啊
中金标准的反向指标稳了
被套的感觉一级棒
2023-12-14
被套的感觉一级棒
我就等全世界最精准的中金的预判文章呢！终于让我等到了！这下终于可以安心持有美股不动了。

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这一情形类似于2019年初“倒逼”不加息。此次美联储“官宣”加息结束，类似于2019年初，只不过此次略过了因为2018年底市场大跌的“倒逼”过程。2019年初倒逼不加息成功后，美股开始见底反弹，美债利率震荡下行，直到5月份经济数据转弱推动降息预期升温，本次的区别在于此轮美股并未经历大跌，且美债降息预期也已经充分计入。刘刚团队强调，美联储态度的软化，可能意味着降息比该机构原本预想的2024年下半年更早，但基本面并不支持短期内就开启降息。比照2019年的经验，降息的到来可能需要一些标志性的基本面变化，当时是3m10s利差首次倒挂，此次可能是失业率或者通胀突破阈值。不过，值得指出的是，中金肖捷文（宏观团队）的观点与刘刚团队不同。肖捷文团队认为，美联储明年降息路径仍有较多不确定性：其一，美联储对降息的预测是基于对通胀路径的判断，尽管今年通胀回落较多，但这不意味着明年通胀也会有同样幅度的改善。实际上，过去一年通胀的放缓有很多是受益于供给的改善，如供应链的修复、劳动力参与率的提高、以及能源价格的下降，尚不清楚这些供给因素能否持续改善，对明年通胀的降低作用能否像过去一年那样明显。其二，美联储的鸽派言论会导致金融条件放松，加剧经济“不着陆”风险（即经济增长不弱，通胀居高不下）。过去一个月美债利率大幅下行，30年期房贷利率快速回落，有迹象表明抵押贷款需求在利率回落后反弹，这可能会加剧房地产市场的不平衡，导致房价居高不下。利率回落也可能使其他利率敏感部门的活动重新提速。总而言之，在供给尚未完全恢复的情况下，需求反弹会增加通胀的弹性，让本来不会出现的二次通胀变成一种可能。肖捷文团队指出，短期来看，美联储的鸽派言论将强化“软着陆”交易，但最终结局是否真的那么美好，有待观察。FOMC会议结束后美债利率大幅下降，美元指数下跌，美股三大股指大涨，创下历史新高，市场在得到了美联储对于降息的指引后开启“庆祝”模式。我们认为美联储态度的软化会推高市场风险偏好，对非美经济体的汇率也会带来益处。但中期来看，美联储降息路径还有很多不确定性，在此过程中，市场波动或将加大。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":252002336534696,"gmtCreate":1702532180918,"gmtModify":1702532182289,"author":{"id":"3574509500912873","authorId":"3574509500912873","name":"George__7684","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dc4774ebb1a2d48dfa15cecba989bd9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574509500912873","authorIdStr":"3574509500912873"},"htmlText":"快跑","listText":"快跑","text":"快跑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/252002336534696","repostId":1120324910,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":252000364199984,"gmtCreate":1702531704869,"gmtModify":1702531706304,"author":{"id":"3473239093042706","authorId":"3473239093042706","name":"看一眼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a84f5e344772736e621cec9cf6efdc2","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3473239093042706","authorIdStr":"3473239093042706"},"htmlText":"中金的话还能听吗？","listText":"中金的话还能听吗？","text":"中金的话还能听吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/252000364199984","repostId":1120324910,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":251993450672440,"gmtCreate":1702530095253,"gmtModify":1702530096744,"author":{"id":"3541116545659059","authorId":"3541116545659059","name":"喵呜喵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d51c5af7a6e2426971ebeb5a65747ce","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3541116545659059","authorIdStr":"3541116545659059"},"htmlText":"嗯，恶意做多美股，善意做空癌股","listText":"嗯，恶意做多美股，善意做空癌股","text":"嗯，恶意做多美股，善意做空癌股","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/251993450672440","repostId":1120324910,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":251992377487648,"gmtCreate":1702529755146,"gmtModify":1702532582248,"author":{"id":"4152613327662380","authorId":"4152613327662380","name":"歌德啊啊","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4152613327662380","authorIdStr":"4152613327662380"},"htmlText":"中金标准的反向指标 稳了","listText":"中金标准的反向指标 稳了","text":"中金标准的反向指标 稳了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/251992377487648","repostId":1120324910,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":251991426596968,"gmtCreate":1702529583390,"gmtModify":1702529584912,"author":{"id":"3542790721485409","authorId":"3542790721485409","name":"被套的感觉一级棒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c1c15f31e638be76248790d47fa724f","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3542790721485409","authorIdStr":"3542790721485409"},"htmlText":"我就等全世界最精准的中金的预判文章呢！终于让我等到了！这下终于可以安心持有美股不动了。","listText":"我就等全世界最精准的中金的预判文章呢！终于让我等到了！这下终于可以安心持有美股不动了。","text":"我就等全世界最精准的中金的预判文章呢！终于让我等到了！这下终于可以安心持有美股不动了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/251991426596968","repostId":1120324910,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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