Plug Power: Relief Rally Might Be In The Cards Despite Disappointing H1 Performance

seekingalpha2021-05-12

SummaryCompany delays quarterly report on form 10-Q but expects to finish the recently announced restatement of past financial results within the next five days.Provides preliminary Q1 revenues and Q2...

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精彩评论

yangmehmeh
2021-05-12
yangmehmeh
This market is just bad
Soksok
2021-05-12
Soksok
Liked
Gigachad
2021-05-12
Gigachad
Go charge point! 🚀
- VS9:
  Rkt
是玉树临风还是两袖清空
2021-05-12
是玉树临风还是两袖清空
Swee
- Gigachad:
  t
ALi_BaBa
2021-05-12
ALi_BaBa
Great
- Mrscrw:
  Yes
- KennyTay:
  A
- Wallstrat:
  like n comment pls
- jijimo回复Wallstrat:
  Ok

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Cash balance remains above $5 billion, or approximately $10 per share.Discussing potential gross margin impact of required reclassification of R&D expense to cost of goods sold.Management still sticking to likely overly aggressive medium- and long-term financial targets despite a long history of over-promising and under-delivering.Investor relief likely to outweigh margin concerns and disappointing H1 performance. A major relief rally might be in the cards.Note:I have covered Plug Power (PLUG) previously, so investors should view this as an update to myearlier articleson the company.After rallying to new decade highs around $75 in late January, the fading ESG hype and a plethora ofaccounting issueshave caused Plug Power's shares to retreat by almost 75% over the past three months.After the close of Monday's session the companydelayedthe filing of its quarterly report on form 10-Q and provided abusiness updatewith preliminary Q1 top-line numbers and Q2 guidance below expectations.Despite the weaker-than-expected first half, management reiterated its previously disclosed annual gross billings targets of $475 million in 2021, $750 million in 2022 and $1.7 billion in 2024.Cash on hand remained above $5 billion or approximately $10 per common share but most of these funds have already been earmarked for the company's business transformation over the next couple of years.Moreover, the company now expects to complete the restatement of its financial results and file its annual report on form 10-K within the next five days which would be well ahead of my personal expectations.Suffice to say, finishing a complex restatement in less than two months is quite an achievement and should result in Plug Power maintaining its Nasdaq listing and likely cure the existing covenant breach under the company'scredit agreementwith Generate Capital.In addition, the upcoming restatement is unlikely to have a material impact on the company's business transformation initiatives as also evidenced by new partners and strategic investors like Renault, Acciona and SK Group moving forward with recently announced joint venture plans.While the strategic partnership with Renault for on-road light commercial vehicles in Europe is currently anticipated to be formalized by the end of Q2, the joint ventures with Acciona for hydrogen production in the Iberian Peninsula and SK Group for the Asian market are now expected to be established by the end of Q3.That said, the company's core material handling operations remain an integral part of management's highly ambitious growth targets with sales expected to multiply by 2024.Unfortunately, the core business continues to consume material amounts of cash not too speak of the notorious warrant issuances to key customers Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)and Walmart(NYSE:WMT)in 2017 which have caused massive earnings charges as the rally in the company's shares has resulted in Plug Power effectively paying these customers for purchasing its GenKey solutions.While I consider the majority of the upcoming restatements to be mostly accounting noise in conjunction with the company's hasty adoption of ASC 842 in mid-2018, there's one key issue investors should keep a close eye on:Remember, the company admitted to having overstated research and development expense in favor of cost of goods sold. The restatement will result in a decrease in both reported gross margins and R&D expense.In layman's terms: Plug Power has overstated the profitability of its core business and invested less in research and development than previously reported.For example:InQ3/2020, the company reported gross billings of $125.6 million and adjusted gross profit of $21.6 million or 17.2% as well as R&D expense of $12.0 million. The following table shows the potential impact on adjusted gross margin depending on the magnitude of the required reclassification:Source: Q3 Shareholder Letter, Author's own calculationsAssuming the company being required to reallocate 33% of reported R&D expense to cost of goods sold, adjusted gross margin would decrease by almost 20%.The impact would be even worse in quarters with considerable lower gross billings numbers like for exampleQ1/2020with reported gross billings of $43.0 and adjusted gross profit of negative $2.6 million or -5.3% as well as R&D expense of $10.4 million:Source: Q3 Shareholder Letter, Author's own calculationsAgain assuming a 33% reallocation of R&D to cost of goods sold, adjusted gross margin would decrease from -5.3% to -13.0%.In my opinion, investors are likely willing to look past this issue as long as the majority of R&D expense remains unaffected by the restatement.Assuming the upcoming restatement does not reveal other material issues, I would expect investor relief regarding the upcoming completion of the restatement to outweigh the company's disappointing H1 sales performance and above discussed margin concerns.At least in my view, the real issue is management's aggressive long-term guidance with gross billings expected to increase almost 60% year-over-year to $750 million in FY2022 and to more than double from this level over the next two years for gross billings of $1.7 billion in FY2024.With Plug Power tapping entirely new markets and management having a long history of over-promising and under-delivering, I would expect the company to miss its ambitious medium- and long-term projections by a mile again.Bottom Line:Despite H1 sales expected to come in below consensus expectations, Plug Power's shares might be due for a major relief rally as excitement about the rather swift restatement will likely outweigh the impact of the required changes to the company's balance sheet and statement of operations.In addition, I would expect analysts to remain supportive, particularly after the recent sell-off.Speculative investors looking for a short-term trading opportunity should consider a position in the shares going into the restatement.Given the very high risk associated with this speculation, investors should keep position sizes in check.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":193439963,"gmtCreate":1620807671152,"gmtModify":1634196154854,"author":{"id":"3574468336320831","authorId":"3574468336320831","authorIdStr":"3574468336320831","name":"yangmehmeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23b89d5a0acbdb3dac0211c8eea5acb3","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574468336320831"},"htmlText":"This market is just bad","listText":"This market is just bad","text":"This market is just 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