Disney: All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal

Seeking Alpha2021-12-14

Summary QQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same. DIS has not fully bounced back from 2020 but it's certainly healing. DIS is far more like NFLX than MSFT or ADBE, despite any ...

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精彩评论

egg3030
2021-12-14
egg3030
Depending on the mkt expansion too
- egg3030:
  Yes
noob80
2021-12-14
noob80
Like pls
- Stefeee:
  done
woonws
2021-12-14
woonws
So... buy something else?
5D1T2
2021-12-14
5D1T2
Ok
- Veldin:
  Ok
- Heavenbjorn:
  K
- Jun168:
  Ok
- Jeffso:
  pls like
Joyus
2021-12-14
Joyus
👍
- Heavenbjorn:
  Kkk
- ragdoll99:
  [Miser]
- Decaffed:
  Ok
5D1T2
2021-12-14
5D1T2
Ok

发表看法

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I greatly enjoy DIS products and services. I am reasonably pleased with DIS stock performance.\nData by YCharts\n53% gains in 5 years isn't terrible but it's not spectacular either. For added perspective, let's quickly compare DIS with the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over 10 years or so.\nData by YCharts\nAs you can see, I zoomed out for a bigger picture view of things. Clearly, QQQ has crushed DIS. Over the same time, DIS has done about as well as SPY. It's clear the 2020 was rough on the price of DIS stock. However, it was also an incredible pivot opportunity for the business with Disney Plus, the streaming home of Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and way more.\nBusiness Model Update\nIt's clear that DIS has been incredibly focused on subscribers for Disney Plus. Here's a quick peek, from the Q4 2021 Earnings Call:\n\n On the Direct-to-Consumer side, we are extremely pleased with the success of our portfolio streaming services. Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu continue to perform incredibly well with a 118.1 million, 17.1 million, and 43.8 million subscribers, respectively, for a total of a 179 million subscriptions. To put this growth in perspective, in the past fiscal year alone, we have grown the total number of subscriptions across our DTC portfolio by 48%, and Disney+ subs in particular by 60%.\n\nNow, here's the good news and bad news. DIS leadership is planning to reach 230 million to 260 million paid subscribers globally by the end of fiscal year 2024. Obviously, that's phenomenal growth and investors should cheer. However, the dark side is that this growth isn't free.DIS doesn't expect their portfolio of streaming services to reach profitability until 2024.Ouch.\nThe key point is that DIS is not simply bolting on Disney Plus, ESPN Plus, Hulu and so on, and adding profits to the bottom line. Instead, getting to this current level of subscribers has been chewing up time and resources. And, it'll be nasty for years. The investment will drain resources. More about this later.\nOf course, very long term investors can cheer. DIS literally has the best intellectual media assets in the world. Really, there isn't any company even close. The library is amazing, huge, and growing.See for yourself.\nAs a quick aside, most people, and most analysts expected a bigger \"snap back\" from 2020, especially in relation to park visits and related activity. For example, here's what we learned about attendance in August 2021:\n\n Disney world does not share its actual capacity nor the number of attendees they get daily. But as stated above, the estimated number of average daily attendees was 57,000 before the pandemic started. So, at present, it might be welcoming a maximum of 35,000 guests daily \n running with a 35% capacity. [Emphasis: Author]\n\nBig picture, I'm not too worried about the parks and related real-world experiences offered by DIS. It might take longer to get running at full steam, but DIS can do it. I'm a bit more concerned that investors are expecting too much from DIS streaming services, without fully considering the costs. This is especially true for short term investors and speculators.\nDisney Is Not Microsoft or Adobe\nAnalysts like to compare DIS to enterprise software companies,as if all subscribers are created equal. Let's consider two incredible businesses. Both Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe (ADBE) have done exceptionally well in recent years, compared to DIS.\nData by YCharts\nClearly, MSFT and ADBE have trounced DIS. In part, here's why:\nData by YCharts\nP/S for both MSFT and ADBE has roughly doubled. At a high level, prices are moving up faster than revenue generated for MSFT and ADBE. Meanwhile, investors place less value on DIS revenue. DIS has pretty much moved sideways.\nLet's talk some real numbers. MSFT has grown earnings by 17% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.63 and in 2021 it's about $8. ADBE has grown earnings by about 29% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.08 and it's expected to hit a staggering $12.46 this year. Meanwhile, here's how DIS looks:\nSource: FASTgraphs\nEPS might get back to 2015 levels in 2023. The dividend was killed off. DIS share price is dramatically higher, even now, compared to earnings. There's a lot of pain in this chart.\nAll if this isn't to bash DIS or to imply that the products or business is terrible. The DIS brand is pristine. Leadership is strong. The company isn't going to suddenly fall off the face of the Earth.The business is amazing.\nAll Subscribers Are Not Created Equal\nI'm not too keen to do this, but here's Netflix (NFLX) versus DIS.\nData by YCharts\nThe only point I want to make is that NFLX shareholders have done far better than DIS shareholders. And, for a different perspective, here's how $10K would have done over the last five years.\nData by YCharts\nIt's very hard for me to say that DIS is \"on sale\" when I look at the relatively flat performance over the last five years. While I think of DIS as a growth stock,it's less of a growth stock than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.\nIn large part, I believe this is all about our definition of subscribers. I'll come back to that in a second. First, feast your eyes on this:\nData by YCharts\nWhat you're seeing is profit margin for DIS, NFLX, MSFT and ADBE. Quite frankly, this paints a damning picture of DIS, especially since 2020. What's most impressive, on the other hand, is how MSFT and ADBE have had has consistently high and growing profit margins. I've got to say, I'm actually a bit surprised that NFLX just keeps getting stronger and stronger in this department as well.\nBy the way, as a sidebar, it's easy to complain about the NFLX P/E ratio. It's over 50 right now. But, at the same time, DIS is at 37, MSFT is at 37, and ADBE is at 52. In that respect, they are all quite overvalued.\nWrap Up\nNow, here are my biggest points. NFLX has spent more than DIS on content and also has first mover advantage, loyalty and entrenchment. Many people have both NFLX and DIS, so I see less of a \"war\" than most people. Furthermore, it appears that NFLX has done an outstanding operational job, and their capital allocation has been strong. It's hard to look at this chart and dismiss NFLX. Clearly, it's a well-run company.\nData by YCharts\nThis next chart is extremely noisy, but you can scroll down and see the truth with your own two eyes. DIS has rather poor ROE, ROA and ROIC compared to NFLX, MSFT and ADBE.\nData by YCharts\nTo be fair, DIS was doing a pretty good job through early 2019. However, very importantly,the drops appear to have started before 2020. We cannot blame the pandemic for the decline in ROE, ROA and ROIC.\nTo be clear,DIS is going to be going gangbusters on content.\n\n Disney plans to increase its overall content spend to around $33bn in 2022, marking an $8bn rise from the previous year.\n\nFurthermore, the idea is that DIS will be rapidly growing the subscriber base.\n\n Disney+ is expected to add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026 to take its total to 271 million. Netflix, meanwhile, will add 53 million subscribers through the same period, taking it to a 2026 total of 275 million.\n\nIn short, DIS isn't about to be left in the dust by NFLX. Something like 60 unscripted series, 30 comedy series and 25 drama shows will be produced. There's really too much to list here. Money is being put to work by DIS.\nNow, shifting gears, I have to say that both MSFT and ADBE have dramatically different types of subscribers. DIS and NFLX satisfy entertainment desires. These are wants,not needs.\nHere's a good way to think about MSFT and ADBE:\n\n Both companies armed businesses big and small with the tools needed to stay in business since the pandemic. As the world moved to virtual work and school, PDFs with virtual signatures and Word docs with important information became standard.\n\nIn other words, MSFT and ADBE subscribers aren't \"addicted\" to the software, as much as they arerequired to use it to do work. When your job is on the line, you've got to be using industry standard tools. Furthermore, both NFLX and DIS are B2C whereas MSFT and ADBE are B2B. It's almost impossible to compare these companies, in terms of subscribers. Sure, we can discuss subscriber counts, subscriber growth, and so forth. But, MSFT and ADBE provide software to companies, and users must use those tools. They are sticky out of necessity, not mere desire. Therefore, let's all be very careful about how we think about DIS, and how we make comparisons.\nPutting all of this together, I still believe that DIS is a wonderful business. However, I would be cautious about adding a ton, especially if that decision is based on dazzling subscriber growth, or incredible content development. At this point, I see DIS as a reasonable hold.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":607997541,"gmtCreate":1639470212188,"gmtModify":1639470212260,"author":{"id":"4090160645832330","authorId":"4090160645832330","name":"egg3030","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba6ef8bd45b7f1dc2dc78586fe68f1c","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Depending on the mkt expansion too","listText":"Depending on the mkt expansion too","text":"Depending on the mkt expansion too","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607997541","repostId":1119480728,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6976797,"gmtCreate":1639470226745,"gmtModify":1639470226775,"authorId":4090160645832330,"author":{"id":4090160645832330,"authorId":4090160645832330,"name":"egg3030","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba6ef8bd45b7f1dc2dc78586fe68f1c","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":607997541,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes","text":"Yes","html":"Yes"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":607042335,"gmtCreate":1639464282017,"gmtModify":1639464282230,"author":{"id":"4098683065538270","authorId":"4098683065538270","name":"noob80","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0612fb30d73184ddc36b7991090ce2d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607042335","repostId":1119480728,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6977826,"gmtCreate":1639479154864,"gmtModify":1639479154898,"authorId":4095739964614100,"author":{"id":4095739964614100,"authorId":4095739964614100,"name":"Stefeee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":607042335,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done <br>","text":"done <br>","html":"done <br>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":607050534,"gmtCreate":1639461939612,"gmtModify":1639464091915,"author":{"id":"3581999478634265","authorId":"3581999478634265","name":"woonws","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f26ed1a10ee84ab97229aad191ef3133","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"So... buy something else?","listText":"So... buy something else?","text":"So... buy something 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