美联储如期加息50个基点，并宣布将从6月1日开始缩表

华尔街见闻2022-05-05

摘要：美联储缩表并非主动抛售、而是减少到期本金再投资，计划最初每月最多减少300亿美元美国国债、175亿美元机构债，三个月后月度缩减上限均提升一倍。相比上次声明，本次联储强调俄乌冲突对通胀施加上行压力，新增指出中国疫情可能影响供应链、联储高度关注通胀风险。为遏制居高不下的美国国内通胀，美联储终于采取更加激进的收紧货币行动，不但大幅加息，而且宣布始于年中的缩减资产负债表规模（缩表）的计划，向一年内缩...

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精彩评论

物农启梦
2022-05-05
物农启梦
好
zhihuaya
2022-05-05
zhihuaya
[开心]
勇勇勇
2022-05-05
勇勇勇
好
王者舞来
2022-05-05
王者舞来
hao羊毛又开始了
武丁
2022-05-05
武丁
对所有央行来说，通胀是最不重要的！
欢乐大宝贝
2022-05-05
欢乐大宝贝
“靴子”落地就是涨！

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Index"},"translate_title":"The Fed raised interest rates by 50 basis points as scheduled and announced that it will scale down from June 1","themeId":"2cdd4ceae4d64c0fa23564c29a04ffa6","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96a1b05f362e29fead263077c088160","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0,".IXIC":0,".SPX":0},"content_text":"摘要：美联储缩表并非主动抛售、而是减少到期本金再投资，计划最初每月最多减少300亿美元美国国债、175亿美元机构债，三个月后月度缩减上限均提升一倍。相比上次声明，本次联储强调俄乌冲突对通胀施加上行压力，新增指出中国疫情可能影响供应链、联储高度关注通胀风险。为遏制居高不下的美国国内通胀，美联储终于采取更加激进的收紧货币行动，不但大幅加息，而且宣布始于年中的缩减资产负债表规模（缩表）的计划，向一年内缩表上万亿美元迈进。美东时间5月4日周三，美联储会后宣布，货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致投票同意，将政策利率联邦基金利率的目标区间从0.25%到0.50%上调至0.75%至1.00%。这是美联储2000年5月以来首度一次加息50个基点，也是2006年以来首次连续两次会议加息。本次加息幅度为今年3月上次加息的两倍，符合市场共识预期。美联储主席鲍威尔4月下旬已明确表示，5月会议要讨论加息50个基点。当时华尔街日报点评称，鲍威尔的讲话令市场对5月加息50个基点的预期保持不变，他还暗示了未来同等幅度加息的可能。今年3月美联储宣布2018年12月以来首次加息，启动今年将多次加息的进程，并在会后声明中暗示最快5月就开始公布启动缩表。本周三会后，美联储果然公布：从下个月、即6月开始缩表，最初最多每月缩减所持债券475亿美元，三个月后上限提高一倍。相比3月会议，本次会后声明强调了俄乌冲突对通胀施加上行压力，认为可能影响经济活动，并新增提到中国疫情对供应链的影响。利率指引重申未来继续加息本周决议声明中，在利率决策方面，美联储重申FOMC寻求实现充分就业和长期通胀达到2%的双重目标，并在宣布将加息后重申了3月加息后的表态：“伴随适宜地坚定（收紧）货币政策的立场，（FOMC）委员会预计，通胀将回到2%的长期通胀目标，且劳动力市场将保持强劲。”在表示为支持以上双重目标加息50个基点后，联储还重申3月的表述：（FOMC）“委员会预期，将上调目标利率区间持续下去会是适合的。”缩表路线：最初每月最多减少300亿美元国债、175亿美元机构债 三个月后提升一倍本周美联储会后声明称，FOMC委员会决定，从6月1日开始，削减对美国国债、证券、机构债券和机构抵押支持证券（MBS）的持仓。3月会上，美联储决策者继去年12月后再次确认，缩表应以可预见的方式随着时间推移减少持有证券，主要方式是，调整再投资系统公开市场账户（SOMA）所持证券收到本金款项的金额。也就是说，美联储属意的主要缩表方式并非主动抛售债券。上月公布的会议纪要显示，3月会上， 与会联储决策者一致认为，可能适合每月设置约600亿美元美国国债和约350亿美元机构MBS的缩表上限，若市场条件有保障，可能要在三个月内、或者更久一点的期间内分阶段实现上限。本周三美联储公布的缩表行动计划显示，美联储的确如预期，并未选择抛售、而是通过调整SOMA所持证券的到期本金再投资规模进行缩表。每月减少再投资的计划如下：对于美国国债，最初设定每月最多缩减300亿美元，三个月后，每月缩减规模上限提升到600亿美元。对于机构债券和机构MBS，最初设定每月最多缩减175亿美元，三个月后，每月缩减上限提升到350亿美元。美联储并未公布6月启动缩表六个月后、即明年缩表要怎样进行，而是说，FOMC委员会有意将证券持仓的规模保持在高效及有效推行货币政策所需的水平。为保证顺畅过渡，FOMC有意缓慢行动，然后，当准备金余额一定程度上超过其判定符合充裕储备的水平时，就停止缩表。缩表停止后，准备金余额可能继续下降一段时间，直到FOMC判定准备金余额达到充裕水平为止。准备金余额的下降反映出其他美联储负债的增长。因此，FOMC将为了随着时间推移保持充裕储备所需而管理证券持仓。在缩表计划末尾，美联储称，FOMC准备根据经济和金融形势变化调整一切缩表方式的细节。强调俄乌冲突对通胀施压、联储高度关注通胀风险 新增中国疫情影响在评论经济时，本次会议声明重申了3月声明首次提到的俄乌冲突的影响表述：俄罗斯对乌克兰的行动“造成巨大的”经济困难，“美国经济经济所受到影响有很高的不确定性”，不同之处是，3月称“近期内，侵袭及相关事件可能对通胀制造了新的上行压力，可能也给经济活动施压”，而本次删掉了“近期内”改为：“侵袭及相关事件正在对通胀制造新的上行压力，可能也给经济活动施压。”而且，本次声明首次提到中国疫情的影响，称中国疫情“可能激化供应链干扰。”本次声明还追加了一句：（FOMC）委员会高度关注通胀风险。重申通胀高企体现能源涨价  就业强劲增长 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