You might think investors’ extreme bullishness would be good for stocks. This analysis says you’re wrong

MarketWatch2021-09-15

Wall Street’s ‘wall of worry’ needs to get higher for stocks to do the same AFP via Getty Images Don’t expect U.S. stocks to mount anything more than an anemic rally in coming weeks. That’s because ...

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Perumal
2021-09-15
Perumal
Go up
- rae90:
  ok
- Roykhor77:
  Ok
maOQiu
2021-09-15
maOQiu
To the moon
- maOQiu:
  [财迷]
VinKuang
2021-09-15
VinKuang
Pls help me with a like [微笑]
- kino318:
  done

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This analysis says you’re wrong\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-15 17:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-still-too-bullish-for-the-stock-market-to-rally-from-here-11631634536?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wall Street’s ‘wall of worry’ needs to get higher for stocks to do the same \nAFP via Getty Images\n\nDon’t expect U.S. stocks to mount anything more than an anemic rally in coming weeks. That’s because ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-still-too-bullish-for-the-stock-market-to-rally-from-here-11631634536?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-still-too-bullish-for-the-stock-market-to-rally-from-here-11631634536?mod=home-page","article_id":"1118561142","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118561142","pubTimestamp":1631698272,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Wall Street’s ‘wall of worry’ needs to get higher for stocks to do the same \nAFP via Getty Images\n\nD","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"你可能认为投资者的极度乐观会对股票有好处。这个分析表明你错了","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"Wall Street’s ‘wall of worry’ needs to get higher for stocks to do the same \nAFP via Getty Images\n\nDon’t expect U.S. stocks to mount anything more than an anemic rally in coming weeks. That’s because there’s still too much bullish sentiment. According to contrarian analysis, the most impressive rallies begin when there is widespread pessimism, just as market risk is highest when there is widespread optimism.\nThe chart below paints the picture. It plots the average recommended equity exposure level among a subset of Nasdaq-focused stock market timers I monitor (as measured by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI). The HNNSI is my most sensitive barometer of stock market sentiment.\n\n\nNotice that March of 2020 was the last time that there was widespread pessimism, as defined by the HNNSI being in the lowest 10% of the historical distribution (the lower shaded box in the chart). 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That means that the average Nasdaq market timer has grown progressively more confident that any decline is nothing to worry about and should instead be treated as a buying opportunity. As a result, the sentiment foundation beneath the bull market is becoming weaker and weaker.\nWatch what they do\nYou may wonder how to square this conclusion with that of a recent Deutsche Bank survey, which found a growing “wall of worry” among 550 global market professionals. Specifically, a majority of them now say that they expect a 5% to 10% market pullback between now and the end of the year.\n\nMy explanation: The HNNSI reflects what market timers are doing, as opposed to what they are saying. It’s one thing for an adviser to say where he thinks the market will be at the end of the year, and quite another to increase or decrease his equity exposure level. Though the Deutsche Bank survey doesn’t report the average equity exposure level among the 550 professionals who participated, I’m confident that, on average, they have not significantly increased their recommended cash level.\nOver the years, we have found that actions speak louder than words. Average exposure levels tell us more about prevailing market sentiment than opinions, so it behooves contrarians to pay attention to what advisers are doing as opposed to what they’re saying.\nEven though a growing number of market professionals may be expressing concern, they appear not to be concerned enough to make big changes to their portfolios. Only when they are that concerned will contrarians become confident that a strong rally is imminent.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":882515296,"gmtCreate":1631706806615,"gmtModify":1632806717368,"author":{"id":"3586927598172340","authorId":"3586927598172340","name":"Perumal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d93dd13e5e16f0b364ef0713d6d419ad","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586927598172340","idStr":"3586927598172340"},"htmlText":"Go up","listText":"Go up","text":"Go up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882515296","repostId":1118561142,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5877813,"gmtCreate":1631707158680,"gmtModify":1634798577467,"authorId":3568861531931848,"author":{"id":3568861531931848,"idStr":"3568861531931848","authorId":3568861531931848,"name":"rae90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":882515296,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"},{"id":5877881,"gmtCreate":1631707784416,"gmtModify":1634798571748,"authorId":3577415925422402,"author":{"id":3577415925422402,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorId":3577415925422402,"name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":882515296,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":882279458,"gmtCreate":1631701253174,"gmtModify":1631888868039,"author":{"id":"3553680669291881","authorId":"3553680669291881","name":"maOQiu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3553680669291881","idStr":"3553680669291881"},"htmlText":"To the moon","listText":"To the moon","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882279458","repostId":1118561142,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5877121,"gmtCreate":1631701260969,"gmtModify":1631888868040,"authorId":3553680669291881,"author":{"id":3553680669291881,"idStr":"3553680669291881","authorId":3553680669291881,"name":"maOQiu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":882279458,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[财迷]","text":"[财迷]","html":"[财迷]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":882259857,"gmtCreate":1631698712079,"gmtModify":1631890751051,"author":{"id":"3577323914202336","authorId":"3577323914202336","name":"VinKuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/536d624e5750dcffec704eeed9bc003b","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577323914202336","idStr":"3577323914202336"},"htmlText":"Pls help me with a like&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"Pls help me with a like&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"Pls help me with a like [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882259857","repostId":1118561142,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5877009,"gmtCreate":1631700099680,"gmtModify":1631890751050,"authorId":3578134255896974,"author":{"id":3578134255896974,"idStr":"3578134255896974","authorId":3578134255896974,"name":"kino318","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e983f44b7853b7b8c10f1b3f6e19dc68","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":882259857,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>done</u>","text":"<u>done</u>","html":"<u>done</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":69,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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