Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors

MarketWatch2021-09-22

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice. Invoking the imagery from the Robert Frost poem “Fire & Ice,” the Morgan Stanley strategist said that ...

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精彩评论

Lainey_Lim
2021-09-23
Lainey_Lim
[Blush]
BKBK
2021-09-22
BKBK
Read
AcidIce
2021-09-22
AcidIce
Buy the dips! Push it until crack then short!
- Lainey_Lim:
  Definitely buying the dip!
klostany
2021-09-22
klostany
If he is so accurate morgan stanley should do mass sell off and reap that 10% drop. Fk the analysts
CIG
2021-09-22
CIG
If S&P drops below 4321, then better run.
skylander
2021-09-22
skylander
Like like pls
- JeremyKok:
  hi. please like and comment back. thank you.

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However, during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, the strategist maintained that 10% is still his “base case” scenario and held his forecast for the S&P 500 index to end the year around 4,000.\nA fall of at least 20% from a recent peak is a widely accepted definition of a bear market, while a drop of 10% defines a correction.\nHis “fire” scenario, which he speculates would lead to a 10% slide for the market, would be precipitated by the Federal Reserve initiating its efforts to “remove monetary accommodation in response to an overheating economy.”\nThe Fed will conclude its September meeting on Wednesday, and release an updated policy statement and a new set of projections for interest rates, including 2024 for the first time.\nThe equity market already has been under selling pressure for several sessions before Monday’s slump which was partially attributed to concerns about possible global systemic risk resulting from a potential debt default by one of China’s biggest property developers: Evergrande 3333, -0.44%.\nOn Monday, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.22% notched the worst daily declines since May 12 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% registered the sharpest one-day fall since July 19.\nThe S&P 500 hasn’t seen a 5% pullback from its peak in about 220 sessions, the longest run since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nMonday’s fall has the index about 4% from its Sept. 2 record close, while the Dow is off 4.65% from its Aug. 16 record and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.3% from its Sept. 7 recent peak.\nWilson said that the break of the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average, which occurred on Friday and then deepened on Monday, represents a change of trend for investors.\n“Well, I think the trend broke, so we did eventually” take out “the 50-day moving average…and it broke violently yesterday … and I think you gotta pay attention to that, Wilson said in his CNBC interview.\n“I respect the market and I would suggest other people respect the market… and what that’s saying is that that trend was challenged,” Wilson said.\n“I’m comfortable with our call,” he said, pooh-poohing criticism that investors have consistently bought the dip in this euphoric, pandemic-recovery cycle.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":863040780,"gmtCreate":1632348701740,"gmtModify":1632801122370,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"htmlText":"[Blush]&nbsp;","listText":"[Blush]&nbsp;","text":"[Blush]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863040780","repostId":1118101852,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":869714928,"gmtCreate":1632321753264,"gmtModify":1632801233863,"author":{"id":"4088404355164750","authorId":"4088404355164750","name":"BKBK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c865cf4c0d1fa66cb7e4603c62979e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088404355164750","authorIdStr":"4088404355164750"},"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869714928","repostId":1118101852,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":869403509,"gmtCreate":1632312533701,"gmtModify":1632801342175,"author":{"id":"3569382039983887","authorId":"3569382039983887","name":"AcidIce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a5edd325094826cf6e8822874786ab","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569382039983887","authorIdStr":"3569382039983887"},"htmlText":"Buy the dips! Push it until crack then short!","listText":"Buy the dips! Push it until crack then short!","text":"Buy the dips! Push it until crack then short!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869403509","repostId":1118101852,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5963951,"gmtCreate":1632354136725,"gmtModify":1634788745512,"authorId":3586571907390098,"author":{"id":3586571907390098,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorId":3586571907390098,"name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":869403509,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Definitely buying the dip!","text":"Definitely buying the dip!","html":"Definitely buying the dip!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":869544716,"gmtCreate":1632310271835,"gmtModify":1632801353124,"author":{"id":"3572052161634400","authorId":"3572052161634400","name":"klostany","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eba482ad1e1cde10397c8710a080df0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572052161634400","authorIdStr":"3572052161634400"},"htmlText":"If he is so accurate morgan stanley should do mass sell off and reap that 10% drop. Fk the analysts","listText":"If he is so accurate morgan stanley should do mass sell off and reap that 10% drop. Fk the analysts","text":"If he is so accurate morgan stanley should do mass sell off and reap that 10% drop. Fk the analysts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869544716","repostId":1118101852,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":869544812,"gmtCreate":1632310211136,"gmtModify":1632801353741,"author":{"id":"3583974841960176","authorId":"3583974841960176","name":"CIG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c2077e2370e1ffcaca7e29b875be2be","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583974841960176","authorIdStr":"3583974841960176"},"htmlText":"If S&amp;P drops below 4321, then better run.","listText":"If S&amp;P drops below 4321, then better run.","text":"If S&P drops below 4321, then better run.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869544812","repostId":1118101852,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":869545755,"gmtCreate":1632310160077,"gmtModify":1632801354355,"author":{"id":"4087989241523320","authorId":"4087989241523320","name":"skylander","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c70a5b34449eb6137e74ae1fefb2ea0","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087989241523320","authorIdStr":"4087989241523320"},"htmlText":"Like like pls","listText":"Like like pls","text":"Like like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869545755","repostId":1118101852,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5963775,"gmtCreate":1632353437380,"gmtModify":1634788762758,"authorId":3567307840510045,"author":{"id":3567307840510045,"idStr":"3567307840510045","authorId":3567307840510045,"name":"JeremyKok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b03a485f83b6b2615fad8ac9b87bf4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":869545755,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you.","text":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you.","html":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you."}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":94,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1118101852"}