AMC: Investors Should Sit Out This Show

seekingalpha2021-05-31

Summary AMC Entertainment Holdings has been on a wild ride once again recently as speculators pump up the stock and let it crash back down. While the company was priced too low at one point, it is ...

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精彩评论

Jo5tarz
2021-06-01
Jo5tarz
HFs cooking up banana stories again, we Apes aren't stupid banana
peggy85
2021-05-31
peggy85
ok
Greenbull18
2021-05-31
Greenbull18
Cool
mentaikokeke
2021-05-31
mentaikokeke
mhmm interesting
- Naixin:
  Yes
miaomee
2021-05-31
miaomee
Is this worth it? Please comment [财迷] [财迷] [疑问] [疑问] [疑问]
- Grabdiamond:
  Buy buy
DarrylWong
2021-05-31
DarrylWong
interesting
- miaomee:
  Please like and comment
- Menghui:
  Comment back

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Amidst what some might refer to as a main street revolt against Wall Street, the movie theater operator finds itself second only to video game retailer GameStop (GME) as ground zero in the conflict. Speculators have sent the shares soaring and tumbling on and off throughout this year even after the company posted a solid return in 2020. While some may say that the company has upside potential from here, that scenario looks highly improbable. Sure, in the short run, the business might see its share price surge higher. But long-term investors watching the action would be well advised to either stay away, or bet against its nonsensical drive higher. Only one scenario could make the company worth more than it is today, but to bet on that outcome is itself speculative in nature.\nRecent activity has been fascinating\nOver the past few weeks, volatility at AMC has picked up again. At the end of April, for instance, shares of the movie theater operator were trading at $10.03 per share. At the close of May 24th, they had risen to close at $13.68. But in just a few days, they nearly tripled from there, briefly touching $36.72 before finally closing at $26.12. This kind of volatility is reminiscent of what the company went through earlier this year. At the end of 2020, shares of the enterprise closed at $2.12 apiece. They then skyrocketed to as high as $20.36 on January 27th.\nSurely, investors who bought in early benefited tremendously. And justifiably so. Shares probably never were appropriately valued around $2 apiece and a high amount of short interest just begging for a squeeze to push units higher. Now, however, the shoe is on the other foot. While management has created some additional value by issuing shares at the market, they have not created enough to make AMC worth even remotely close to what it is trading for today unless we assume a return to normalcy. And even then, units would likely be trading at or near the high end of what can realistically be expected.\nPerformance has been awful\nOver time, a company's share price should come to reflect the value that it creates for its investors. At present, the implied value for a company like AMC is fairly low. Consider, as an example, its recent financial performance. After reporting revenue of $5.47 billion in 2019, this figure dropped to just $1.24 billion in 2020. On the bottom line, the company went from reporting a net loss of $149.1 million to a loss of $4.59 billion. Operating cash flow certainly performed better, but even it suffered tremendously. From 2019 to 2020, this metric declined from a positive $579 million to a negative $1.13 billion. And EBITDA dropped from $771.4 million to -$999.2 million.\nFinancial performance at AMC has not always been this bad. Each year since at least 2016, the company has reported growing revenue. Back in that year, as an example, revenue at the firm was just $3.24 billion. This translates to solid upside, driven in part by acquisition activities the company engaged in. On the other hand, though, the company's bottom line has never been particularly great. The company went from generating a profit of $111.7 million in 2016, to losing $487.2 million in 2017. This popped up into positive territory to the tune of $110.1 million in 2018 before seeing a loss again in 2019 and 2020. Operating cash flow, fortunately, has been more consistent. This metric has risen almost every year, timing from $431.7 million in 2016 to $579 million last year.\nGiven the surge in price that AMC has experienced, investors might think that some fundamental change took place at the business to warrant this upside. However, that was not the case. The most recent development was the announcement by the company that it had issued 43 million shares, bringing in gross proceeds a $428 million. Based on my estimates, this would imply net proceeds of around $417.4 million. While this alone is great, this implies a weighted average share price of less than $10. And, even with it, and if we assume that debt has remained unchanged since the end of the company's first quarter this year, net debt would still be $3.85 billion.\nThe picture might be more attractive if management had some good news to report operationally, but that too has not been the case. Revenue in the first quarter last year came in at $941.5 million. By this year, it had declined 84.2% to $148.3 million. The company's net loss did improve, but its operating cash flow went from -$184 million to -$312.9 million. Though this data is from March, some sources suggest that the movie theater space is recovering at a very slow rate.\nPriced for the best case scenario possible\nOne fact that I think most everyone can agree on is that if business does not improve eventually, AMC will not survive. So instead of analyzing the company from how bad the situation is today, an alternative approach is to analyze what investors should consider the best scenario. Realistically, this would imply a return to the kind of performance the company generated in 2019. Even in that scenario, however, shares do look to be quite pricey. Based on my calculations, the company would be trading at a price to operating cash flow multiple of 22.3. And its EV to EBITDA multiple would stand at about 21.7. If this were a business with low net leverage, that was growing at a rapid pace, and that had attractive margins, this high of a multiple very likely could be realistic. But as I have demonstrated already, AMC was never a stellar operator. This, then, really does point to what could probably be considered a high price point for the company.\nThere is, of course, one way where AMC might fare well. And that would be if management were to issue significantly more stock at current high prices. As an example, issuing another 43 million shares at the price units are at today would get the business another $1.12 billion in cash before factoring in offering costs. In theory, AMC could pull itself out of this mess and become a respectable prospect by doing something like this. But it is unclear how the market will respond to subsequent share offerings and it is unclear whether management has the interest in doing this. At the end of the day, banking on this particular strategy truly is the same is rolling the dice.\nTakeaway\nBased on the data provided, it’s clear that AMC’s future is not looking bright. More likely than not, the company will survive the current crisis. However, a true recovery is certainly many months away, possibly longer. In that timeframe, the firm will continue to burn through cash in order to keep its operations going. This, in turn, will only increase the multiple the companies trading at and to make it even more unappealing. If management were to issue significantly more stock at current prices, this could create a self-fulfilling prophecy whereby the business could come to be a reasonable prospect, but even that assumes a complete recovery and that is something that the jury is still out on. It is never a good idea to base your investment decision on a best-case scenario, so because of that, investors would be wise to steer clear for now.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":119360396,"gmtCreate":1622520123815,"gmtModify":1634100862072,"author":{"id":"3566111551860327","authorId":"3566111551860327","name":"Jo5tarz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cdaa131f223c2f17b3669bce62cc05e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566111551860327","authorIdStr":"3566111551860327"},"htmlText":"HFs cooking up banana&nbsp;stories again, we Apes&nbsp;aren't stupid banana&nbsp;","listText":"HFs cooking up banana&nbsp;stories again, we Apes&nbsp;aren't stupid banana&nbsp;","text":"HFs cooking up banana stories again, we Apes aren't stupid banana","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119360396","repostId":1117895410,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":110556439,"gmtCreate":1622471767721,"gmtModify":1634101235953,"author":{"id":"3581811291499435","authorId":"3581811291499435","name":"peggy85","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e664ba5e10199decb88d9dc807352693","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581811291499435","authorIdStr":"3581811291499435"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110556439","repostId":1117895410,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":110524912,"gmtCreate":1622471036836,"gmtModify":1634101242260,"author":{"id":"3582021842674964","authorId":"3582021842674964","name":"Greenbull18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/576bc95bff9dffadad04639941613d8e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582021842674964","authorIdStr":"3582021842674964"},"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110524912","repostId":1117895410,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":110580423,"gmtCreate":1622468539362,"gmtModify":1631890959652,"author":{"id":"3584613057927706","authorId":"3584613057927706","name":"mentaikokeke","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584613057927706","authorIdStr":"3584613057927706"},"htmlText":"mhmm interesting&nbsp;","listText":"mhmm interesting&nbsp;","text":"mhmm interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110580423","repostId":1117895410,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4519315,"gmtCreate":1622470751219,"gmtModify":1631890959655,"authorId":3584237259744368,"author":{"id":3584237259744368,"idStr":"3584237259744368","authorId":3584237259744368,"name":"Naixin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b467a57b3598327ee1aed4e36d7717a5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":110580423,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes","text":"Yes","html":"Yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":110507899,"gmtCreate":1622466568711,"gmtModify":1634101289942,"author":{"id":"3569375896365334","authorId":"3569375896365334","name":"miaomee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd309d5a46384576888494b61b0e5953","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569375896365334","authorIdStr":"3569375896365334"},"htmlText":"Is this worth it?&nbsp; Please comment&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[疑问]&nbsp;[疑问]&nbsp;[疑问]&nbsp;","listText":"Is this worth it?&nbsp; Please comment&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[疑问]&nbsp;[疑问]&nbsp;[疑问]&nbsp;","text":"Is this worth it? Please comment [财迷] [财迷] [疑问] [疑问] [疑问]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110507899","repostId":1117895410,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4519353,"gmtCreate":1622471085084,"gmtModify":1635393473102,"authorId":3581497141923960,"author":{"id":3581497141923960,"idStr":"3581497141923960","authorId":3581497141923960,"name":"Grabdiamond","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10e3dcf66896be3e67e1ca4c0a38354b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":110507899,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Buy buy","text":"Buy buy","html":"Buy buy"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":110272763,"gmtCreate":1622465516252,"gmtModify":1634101298476,"author":{"id":"3580190462625568","authorId":"3580190462625568","name":"DarrylWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e4b82d595be883bcd8e099845c3f407","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580190462625568","authorIdStr":"3580190462625568"},"htmlText":"interesting","listText":"interesting","text":"interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110272763","repostId":1117895410,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4518557,"gmtCreate":1622466593321,"gmtModify":1635393543517,"authorId":3569375896365334,"author":{"id":3569375896365334,"idStr":"3569375896365334","authorId":3569375896365334,"name":"miaomee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd309d5a46384576888494b61b0e5953","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":110272763,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","html":"Please like and comment"},{"id":4518751,"gmtCreate":1622467696173,"gmtModify":1635393528957,"authorId":3573208750244335,"author":{"id":3573208750244335,"idStr":"3573208750244335","authorId":3573208750244335,"name":"Menghui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78313b2880982008ec8b550c3e213dd7","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":110272763,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Comment back","text":"Comment back","html":"Comment back"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":42,"commentSize":20,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1117895410"}