American Airlines: Buy For The Long Haul

seekingalpha2021-11-29

Summary The new Covid strain out of South Africa is already impacting the AAL stock without knowing very much about the variant; the stock could be oversold. Leisure travel has recovered to pre-Covid...

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精彩评论

Eded
2021-11-29
Eded
Major Airline stocks should be able to recover faster and easier than cruise stocks
- BlueDaisy:
  Agree!
MN27
2021-11-29
MN27
Like pls
JJ1995
2021-11-29
JJ1995
Like
pet
2021-11-29
pet
Like pls
- Niceguy99:
  Ok
- frusty:
  done

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the stock could be oversold.\nLeisure travel has recovered to pre-Covid...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472192-american-airlines-buy-for-the-long-haul\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AAL","symbol_name":"美国航空","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472192-american-airlines-buy-for-the-long-haul","article_id":"1117801086","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117801086","pubTimestamp":1638165391,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nThe new Covid strain out of South Africa is already impacting the AAL stock without knowing","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AAL":"美国航空"},"translate_title":"美国航空：长期购买","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAL":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nThe new Covid strain out of South Africa is already impacting the AAL stock without knowing very much about the variant; the stock could be oversold.\nLeisure travel has recovered to pre-Covid levels, just waiting on business travel to return, which could happen over the next 12-24 months.\nDebt reduction will continue as CapEx will remain low due to good fleet management over the last 10 years.\n\nAmerican Airlines(NASDAQ:AAL)has been hit hard once again due to the fears of a new Covid strain coming out of South Africa. Threat or not it is too early to tell but the market is suggesting it could be a threat. I just see a potential buying opportunity for the long term. Travel for leisure has returned to similar levels we saw pre-covid, it is just business travel that is lagging. Once that returns, revenues will follow. The company could be back to pre-covid level revenue in the next 2 years and the share price will climb as that happens. In the meantime, we can only work with what is, and right now there is a bit of fear in the travel space. I am bullish on American Airlines long term.\nWhat Is Driving American Airlines?\nIn short, it's Covid. But, what Covid is affecting is the revenue. Looking below we can get a grasp of where we currently stand with regards to Covid and travel and how it affects American Airlines. This has already lasted far longer than many of us (myself included) thought it would and airlines have been some of the hardest hit by Covid. Just as it was looking good, a new variant appears, but more on that later. For now, I will focus on the positive.\n(Source:Company Presentation)\nLater on, I will look at the TSA checkpoint data, but I want to highlight the following chart from American Airlines. What we can see here is that consumer sentiment is full on board with getting on a plane for leisure purposes. We can see that since the summer, the company is making roughly the same as they were off leisure in 2019, which is awesome. The downside is the business side. Many companies still won't allow their employees to travel, or strongly discourage it. A lot are realizing some pretty incredible savings due to not traveling, so it may take some more time to see those numbers come back to what they once were. I think most people (yes even people under 30) are starting to see that virtual meetings/conferences are way more effective in person. Sadly, it may take until Covid is no longer a buzzword in the media, and who knows when that is. But, I do firmly believe that business will return to 80%+ consistently over the next couple of years.\n(Source: Company Presentation)\nLet's look at revenue as a whole and see where we were, and where we could be headed. In 2019, the company posted a record $45.77 billion in revenue. Only to see that fall all the way down to $17.34 billion in 2020. We will see how close they get to $30.00 billion this year, but it is expected that they get back over $40.00 billion in 2022. A good chunk of thatis dependent on business travel picking up again, which unfortunately all we can do is wait and see.\n\nOne of the other major positives when looking at American Airlines is their lower CapEx in the coming years. This is thanks to strong fleet management over the last 10 years. Roughly 60% of their fleet is 10 years old or younger, and this allows cash flows to be put towards paying down debt and getting the balance sheet back into a spot where the company could even consider paying a dividend down the road.\n(Source: Company Presentation)\nWhat About A Dividend?\nI know the dividend was a nice reward, but I wouldn't expect to see a dividend anytime soon. Some analysts are expecting a very small return in 2022, as small as $0.01 annually. Personally, I would like them to forget about the dividend and get the balance sheet back into a manageable position before they think about a payout.\n\nLooking above, we can see the net debt and how it's grown since Covid came into our lives, and rightfully so. For years, the company maintained a sub 3x debt to EBITDA ratio, and even by 2022 year-end, it's expected to be around 6.5x which is still very high. It will be a good thing that they finish with a positive EBITDA in 2022 alone, and there is a lot of work to be done here. But, what we do know is that air travel isn't going to disappear. It will be back, and the dividend will return as well as the debt comes back to a manageable level, long term.\nWhat Are The Risks?\nI am not a virologist by any means, but without a doubt, this new strain is a threat to shareholders. The reason it is a threat has to do with how passengers (customers) feel about travel given the news. Regardless of how you feel about Covid, this is a fact. All you have to do is look at the flyer statistics to see this. Looking below, we can see that travel has been edging closer to the numbers we saw in 2019 what seems like daily.\n(Source: Author Made. Data fromTSA)\nSome of the effects here so include business and international travel. When will that be back in full force? I would love to tell you with confidence that 2022 will be our year, but it's hard to say at this point. Local and international restrictions will continue to play a role in travel at least for the first quarter of 2022 at this point. I will have full confidence when we can remove mandates and restrictions country-wide without having an explosion in cases, or at least the general media begins to ignore case counts. Until then, many people/companies will not feel comfortable with travel and numbers will remain below where we saw them pre-covid.\nWhat Does The Price Say?\nSome of this may seem redundant, but let's remind ourselves. Air travel is going to return to full force at some point, and eventually, the stock market will stop reacting to new Covid variants. When that is, is the million-dollar question. Looking below, we can see that the fair value, which uses 10-year forward levered cash flows, is showing over 200% possible returns. The stock was last at $41 in late 2018, and I do think it will get there again down the road.\n(Source: Simplywall.st)\nNow, let's look at the charts and see when that could happen and what we need to watch for technically speaking. We saw the stock (and all airlines for that matter) crash through some key support right around $18.20 on the news of the new variant. We fell as low as $16.90, but rebounded nicely into the close and finished at $17.69 (nice). Honestly, this is better than I expected when I heard the news on Thursday night. So where do we go from here?\n(Source: TC2000.com)\nThere is a very good chance we could see some panic selling. Friday was a holiday for most people in the U.S. which means many were not very concerned with their investments. Typically what we see after a panic sell in the morning is a snap back up as smart money jumps back in. Obviously, there are other things at play here as well. All I can do is look for areas of support and play the charts accordingly.\nLooking below we can see a few areas. Yes, these are large gaps, but it's where the key support lies. I think we could see a retest of the $16.90 low we saw on Friday, but we could also dip lower on panic selling towards $15.00. Below $15.00, I would steer clear and wait for a clear reversal and to see $15.00 regained. As for the bounce case, we now have a nice gap thanks to the sell-off that needs to be filled. I would be keeping an eye on ~$18.87 to see if we can test that level. There is clear support there now, and it would fill the gap.\n(Source: TC2000.com)\nEither way, this is a very risky trade at this point given what we know. Markets don't like uncertainty and this new variant has introduced a lot of that to the market. The media will continue to run with news on the new variant, so keep an eye on that to see when that is no longer the main headline as it will signal a potential sustainable bounce. We are typically in a strong season for airline stocks, so it will be interesting to see how we respond from here given the news. If you do take the trade, set your stops. You can always buy back lower if you still love the stock.\nWrap-Up\nThe largest IF here and it's a big IF, surrounds Covid and if business travel can be sustained once again. I think we all agree that air travel is going to be here for decades to come. Once we see the business travel return, the stock will benefit greatly. The world is forever changed without a doubt, but I do think American Airlines will push through. I currently do not have a position, but I will be watching the levels outlined very carefully as I do think there is a lot of potential here and I am bullish in the long term. Thank you for reading, and stay safe out there!","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":600596678,"gmtCreate":1638168722727,"gmtModify":1638168722982,"author":{"id":"3581980965309451","authorId":"3581980965309451","name":"Eded","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a629a3014601072ee8dc2d151d1796","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581980965309451","authorIdStr":"3581980965309451"},"htmlText":"Major&nbsp;Airline stocks should be able to recover faster and easier than cruise stocks&nbsp;","listText":"Major&nbsp;Airline stocks should be able to recover faster and easier than cruise stocks&nbsp;","text":"Major Airline stocks should be able to recover faster and easier than cruise stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600596678","repostId":1117801086,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6770235,"gmtCreate":1638190677140,"gmtModify":1638190677174,"authorId":3582677971530678,"author":{"id":3582677971530678,"idStr":"3582677971530678","authorId":3582677971530678,"name":"BlueDaisy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0747094283743978b62fb8b1ee2cf44c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":600596678,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Agree!","text":"Agree!","html":"Agree!"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":600599653,"gmtCreate":1638167767380,"gmtModify":1638167767522,"author":{"id":"3585973860502184","authorId":"3585973860502184","name":"MN27","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a11b544b50a084b6af0533c0b412c51","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585973860502184","authorIdStr":"3585973860502184"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600599653","repostId":1117801086,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":600502082,"gmtCreate":1638166893459,"gmtModify":1638166893459,"author":{"id":"3585306220917787","authorId":"3585306220917787","name":"JJ1995","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b7598df33bae920cf1aa01d5548891","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585306220917787","authorIdStr":"3585306220917787"},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600502082","repostId":1117801086,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":600272299,"gmtCreate":1638165628181,"gmtModify":1638165656754,"author":{"id":"3574914454410809","authorId":"3574914454410809","name":"pet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8bb8cf9a25355b93399ce59a269665b","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574914454410809","authorIdStr":"3574914454410809"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600272299","repostId":1117801086,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6768189,"gmtCreate":1638175727323,"gmtModify":1638175727357,"authorId":3580703292112327,"author":{"id":3580703292112327,"idStr":"3580703292112327","authorId":3580703292112327,"name":"Niceguy99","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e32316f3c51cc89477c494ecc8a20a65","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":600272299,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":6767113,"gmtCreate":1638166653338,"gmtModify":1638166653445,"authorId":3555119187338975,"author":{"id":3555119187338975,"idStr":"3555119187338975","authorId":3555119187338975,"name":"frusty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46c85297aaa1b07647be4b2ca33ea8e8","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":600272299,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>done</u>","text":"<u>done</u>","html":"<u>done</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":25,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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