假牛市？近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”

华尔街见闻2020-05-20

全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是熊市反弹，也就是股市在跌至新低之前的短期快速反弹。只有四分之一的人认为股市已经进入了新的牛市。仅有10%的受访基金经理预计经济将以V型快速而剧烈复苏，而75%的受访者预计将是需要更长时间的U型或W型...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

MR. No
2020-05-21
MR. No
有钱赚再假也是真的。没钱赚再真也是假的。[笑哭]
李国睿
2020-05-20
李国睿
我也这么认为，可是看到涨这么厉害，我觉得我错了
潜力股
2020-05-20
潜力股
好现象
Oo阿波oO
2020-05-20
Oo阿波oO
你认为没用，除非你能干过美联储，否则你们的意见完全不重要
旭虎
2020-05-20
旭虎
那就做空吧，不用废话
大力士
2020-05-20
大力士
越是普遍的认识越是错误的认识股市不就是违背大部分的意愿小部分人才能赚钱么

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117176892?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2020-05-20 09:35","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","id":"1117176892","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"假牛市？近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。\n在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是熊市反弹，也就是股市在跌至新低之前的短期快速反弹。只有四分之一的人认为股市已经进入了新的牛市。仅有10%的受访基金经理预计经济将以V型快速而剧烈复苏，而75%的受访者预计将是需要更长时间的U型或W型...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>假牛市？近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n假牛市？近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-20 09:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。\n在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是熊市反弹，也就是股市在跌至新低之前的短期快速反弹。只有四分之一的人认为股市已经进入了新的牛市。仅有10%的受访基金经理预计经济将以V型快速而剧烈复苏，而75%的受访者预计将是需要更长时间的U型或W型...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html","article_id":"1117176892","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981"],"rights":{"source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117176892","pubTimestamp":1589938548,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。\n在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"A fake bull market? Nearly 70% of fund managers think U.S. Stocks are just a \"bear market rebound.\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0202d21e35470f41948a573438aac4e","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。\n在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是熊市反弹，也就是股市在跌至新低之前的短期快速反弹。只有四分之一的人认为股市已经进入了新的牛市。仅有10%的受访基金经理预计经济将以V型快速而剧烈复苏，而75%的受访者预计将是需要更长时间的U型或W型反弹。\n从好的方面来看，5月份基金经理对全球增长的预期大幅上升。根据美国银行的调查，38%的基金经理预测未来12个月世界经济将走强。与此同时，投资者认为全球制造业PMI在11月之前不会升破50这一预示扩张的水平。\n过去两个月里，全球风险资产飙升，得益于强有力的货币和财政支持措施，以及随着主要经济体放松封锁措施，投资者也乐观预计经济可能反弹。然而，资金持续流入货币市场和债券基金表明，由于担心公共卫生事件再度爆发以及企业盈利受到持续损害，许多投资者都远离股市。\n最新的美国银行调查显示，现金水平小幅下降至5.7%，但仍远高于4.7%的10年平均水平，而债券配置比例跃升至2009年金融危机以来的最高水平。调查显示，基金经理持有美国股票多头仓位，对欧元区股票是空头仓位。\n由于公共卫生事件继续在全球新闻中占据主导地位，调查显示，投资者认为第二波公共卫生事件是市场的最大尾部风险。疫苗研发的突破被认为是最有可能推动V型复苏的催化剂。\n鉴于如此多的传统基金经理远离风险资产，美国银行的调查可以让人一窥哪些市场参与者一直在推动股市上涨。调查结果显示，对冲基金本月增持股票，达到34%的净多头仓位，使股票配置接近2月市场崩盘前的水平。\n除了美银的调查，德意志银行调查也显示，超半数的机构投资者认为美股在未来3个月里将进一步走低。\n德银向全球450名专业投资者发布问卷，搜集他们对于公共卫生事件及市场走势看法。数据显示，57%的机构投资者认为，后公共卫生事件时代在家办公将变得更加常规，每周可能要有1-3天的时间在家办公。\n\n专业投资者在经历长时间在家办公后，工作效率也在提高，与上次调查相比(42%)，仅有31%的受调查者表示其在家办公效率会下降。\n\n机构投资者对于公共卫生事件的二次爆发保持警惕状态，只有15%的被调查者认为今年秋冬季节公共卫生事件不会二次爆发。\n\n受调查者对于疫苗开发也呈乐观态度：74%的被调查者认为其在未来18个月里能买到疫苗，只有4%的人认为疫苗永远都不会开发出来。\n但专业投资者普遍认为，疫苗在短期无法上市，仅有6%的受访者认为可以在6个月内获得疫苗。\n机构投资者同时认为，因公共卫生事件导致的社交隔离大概率还会继续：48%的受调查者认为社交隔离将在未来6个月里延续，另有30%的被调查者认为社交隔离会再延续6个月。\n在市场走势方面，机构投资者对于股市未来走势感到悲观。42%的受调查者认为标普500指数会在未来的3个月里略微下跌，另有17%的被调查者认为未来3个月股市将大幅下跌。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":953092328,"gmtCreate":1590052452064,"gmtModify":1704191632472,"author":{"id":"3548326863723536","authorId":"3548326863723536","name":"MR. No","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c011bf7bd5ced9d9980d719187ddea","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6295840391b9cdc17115677ba51429c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"有钱赚再假也是真的。没钱赚再真也是假的。[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"有钱赚再假也是真的。没钱赚再真也是假的。[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"有钱赚再假也是真的。没钱赚再真也是假的。[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/953092328","repostId":1117176892,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":959450712,"gmtCreate":1589987428636,"gmtModify":1704191433948,"author":{"id":"3473980879276574","authorId":"3473980879276574","name":"李国睿","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"我也这么认为，可是看到涨这么厉害，我觉得我错了","listText":"我也这么认为，可是看到涨这么厉害，我觉得我错了","text":"我也这么认为，可是看到涨这么厉害，我觉得我错了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959450712","repostId":1117176892,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":959484866,"gmtCreate":1589984194055,"gmtModify":1704191403685,"author":{"id":"52693650069111","authorId":"52693650069111","name":"潜力股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b412bbf48c121c837ff372956e25ac2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"好现象","listText":"好现象","text":"好现象","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959484866","repostId":1117176892,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":959415935,"gmtCreate":1589983184427,"gmtModify":1704191388601,"author":{"id":"3480897145494234","authorId":"3480897145494234","name":"Oo阿波oO","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"你认为没用，除非你能干过美联储，否则你们的意见完全不重要","listText":"你认为没用，除非你能干过美联储，否则你们的意见完全不重要","text":"你认为没用，除非你能干过美联储，否则你们的意见完全不重要","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959415935","repostId":1117176892,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":959433926,"gmtCreate":1589981736465,"gmtModify":1704191368886,"author":{"id":"3522659534924387","authorId":"3522659534924387","name":"旭虎","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"那就做空吧，不用废话","listText":"那就做空吧，不用废话","text":"那就做空吧，不用废话","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959433926","repostId":1117176892,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":959568170,"gmtCreate":1589965642090,"gmtModify":1704191273554,"author":{"id":"3490269746375551","authorId":"3490269746375551","name":"大力士","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"越是普遍的认识 越是错误的认识 股市不就是违背大部分的意愿 小部分人才能赚钱么","listText":"越是普遍的认识 越是错误的认识 股市不就是违背大部分的意愿 小部分人才能赚钱么","text":"越是普遍的认识 越是错误的认识 股市不就是违背大部分的意愿 小部分人才能赚钱么","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959568170","repostId":1117176892,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":5,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.26.2","shortVersion":"4.26.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1117176892"}