Amazon Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022

Seeking Alpha2021-11-25

Summary Amazon has faced tremendous challenges in trying to replicate its breathtaking growth in FY20. Despite that, its growth is still healthy over a two-year timeframe. AWS is facing intense ...

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精彩评论

EdmundSan
2021-11-25
EdmundSan
Nice
- Gabrielle_20:
  👍
Jer_Soul
2021-11-25
Jer_Soul
[Cool]
- williamtay:
  cry louder
- Jer_Soul:
  [Cry]
CloudStrife
2021-11-25
CloudStrife
Help like pls [Shy]
- JoelSeah:
  like
- LLQ_:
  ok

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Despite that, its growth is still healthy over a two-year timeframe.\nAWS is facing intense ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471825-amazon-stock-forecast-2022\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-25 15:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471825-amazon-stock-forecast-2022><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAmazon has faced tremendous challenges in trying to replicate its breathtaking growth in FY20. Despite that, its growth is still healthy over a two-year timeframe.\nAWS is facing intense ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471825-amazon-stock-forecast-2022\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AMZN","symbol_name":"亚马逊","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471825-amazon-stock-forecast-2022","article_id":"1116400328","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116400328","pubTimestamp":1637825877,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon has faced tremendous challenges in trying to replicate its breathtaking growth in FY","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"translate_title":"亚马逊股票预测：2022年看什么","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon has faced tremendous challenges in trying to replicate its breathtaking growth in FY20. Despite that, its growth is still healthy over a two-year timeframe.\nAWS is facing intense pressure from Azure's success in the Cloud SaaS space. Therefore, Amazon needs to up its SaaS game to compete with Microsoft.\nAfter a relatively difficult 2021 for Amazon stock, we discuss what investors should look out for next year.\n\ngeorgeclerk/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nAmazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock has had a challenging run since August '20. While the rest of its FAANG peers have done well since August '20, AMZN stock has struggled to gain traction. But, perhaps, the market knows better. While the pandemic tailwinds drove Amazon's business to new heights last year, it has struggled to repeat its performance in 2021. It reported its weakest quarter over the previous three years in FQ3. To make matters worse, Andy Jassy & Co. issued a relatively soft FQ4 guidance that disappointed investors.\nNevertheless, the market is always forward-looking. After enduring a sharp sell-down post-FQ3 earnings, its stock has already recovered its losses and went on to test its recent all-time high (ATH).\nWe discuss what investors should look out for in FY22. We also discuss whether investors can add AMZN stock now, given the weakness in the market recently.\nAMZN Stock YTD Performance\nAMZN stock YTD performance (as of 23 November 21).\nAMZN stock has been in a relatively long consolidation phase since August '20. Therefore, investors should not be surprised that the stock has underperformed the broad market in 2021. Nevertheless, it was close to testing its July ATH recently as it recovered remarkably from its post-earnings sell-off. The current market retracement has impacted its recovery momentum. Notwithstanding, we believe that the impact is transitory. We have confidence that AMZN stock will be on its way to taking out its July ATH again moving ahead.\nAmazon's Growth Should Normalize After An Exceptionally Challenging FY21 Comp\nAmazon quarterly revenue YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nFQ3'21 proved to be an exceptionally challenging quarter for Amazon to comp. The company delivered a report that came in below consensus estimates but was within its guidance.We also highlighted in a previous article just before its FQ3's earnings release that we were confident that the company would outperform consensus. However, we were also surprised when the company didn't meet the consensus estimates. After all, the consensus estimates of a 17% YoY growth rate wasn't that challenging, was it? However, the company posted a 15.3% YoY growth in revenue. Thus, it easily ranked as the lowest YoY change over the last three years. If that wasn't enough, AMZN guided that its FQ4'21 revenue growth would come in at around 7.5% (mid-point). It would thus be the lowest YoY change over the last three years, surpassing FQ3's low. Notably, it also means that the company expects to post a single-digit YoY revenue growth, which is almost unheard of.\nShould investors be surprised? We think if we look at its 1-year YoY change, it's undoubtedly worrying. But CFO Brian Olsavsky also reminded investors:\n\n Amazon's Q3 revenue of $110.8 billion represented\n a 2-year compounded annual growth rate of 25% versus a pre-pandemic growthrate in the low 20% range. We're grateful to our customers who have put their trust in us. (from AMZN's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nWe think this is telling. AMZN is pulling no punches here. It framed its \"disappointing\" FY21 performance so far as it rode the pandemic tailwinds strongly last year. Readers can quickly glean from the chart above where Amazon's revenue grew by 37.6% YoY in FY20. It would certainly be hard-pressed for investors to expect AMZN to outperform or even match FY20's breathtaking performance this year. After all, this company posted revenue worth $458B in the last twelve months (LTM). So, investors must be realistic.\nAmazon est. revenue mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nAmazon est. revenue YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nThe consensus estimates for FQ4'21 have been revised markedly downwards by 3.1% from September (pre-FQ3 earnings). However, the estimates for FY22 have only been slightly impacted. Consequently, the consensus estimates point to normalized YoY revenue growth of 15% to 20% for AMZN in FY22. Specifically, Amazon is estimated to grow its revenue by 17.8% YoY in FY22. Therefore, the fear that AMZN's growth will slow down drastically might be well overblown.\nAWS's Growth Momentum Continues To Lead\nCloud infrastructure services vendor market share worldwide. Data source: Canalys\nThere's little doubt that AWS continues to face tremendous pressure from the #2 player Azure (MSFT) in the Cloud hyperscaler market. Nonetheless, Amazon has continued to maintain its leadership for its most crucial profitability driver. As a result, AWS's market share remains robust at 32% in CQ3'21, while Azure's share was 21%.\nAWS revenue & YoY change. Data source: Company filings\nWe can also observe the strength of AWS in helping Amazon drive its topline growth. AWS posted YoY revenue growth of 38.9% in FQ3, as it maintained its robust growth momentum even as the company's e-commerce segment growth decelerated. In addition, AWS is expected to lead the company's growth momentum moving forward.\nIDC estimates that Public Cloud spending will continue to grow remarkably over the next four years. The combined spending is estimated to reach $809M by 2025, representing a CAGR of 21%. Therefore, we believe AWS is well-primed to continue riding its secular multi-year growth. Nevertheless, it's facing significant competition from Azure's edge in Cloud SaaS enterprise applications. It's well documented that MSFT has a substantial advantage in Cloud SaaS spending, and it is the undisputed leader. It has been an area where Amazon has been trying to compete, but MSFT has continued to gain share.The Information also expounded on Azure's edge in Cloud SaaS. It added (edited):\n\n One of AWS CEO Selipsky's big decisions will be whether to strike back at Microsoft in applications, where \n AWS' bare-bones offerings present one of the biggest holes in its product portfolio. Microsoft, in contrast, has one of the deepest libraries of applications in the tech industry.\n Applications have also given Microsoft deep connections inside the IT departments of large companies, which have in turn made it easier to sell its Azure cloud services. Microsoft's salespeople carry bigger bags filled with more to sell, so they can compete for a larger share of a customer's wallet. This has been a material sales advantage from the primordial days of enterprise IT. (from The Information article)\n\nGlobal Cloud SaaS revenue share. Data source: ITCandor\nInvestors can easily glean Microsoft's dominance in the Cloud SaaS space. It has even managed to gain share against its closest competitor Salesforce (CRM), as of H1'21. MSFT extended its Cloud SaaS market share to 16.8%, as it further entrenches its leadership in the market. MSFT is far from being the dominant player in this space. But, as explained, Azure pairs its Cloud SaaS capability with its PaaS and IaaS offerings against AWS. Therefore, that allows Azure a solid competitive edge in gaining share in the Cloud market.\nNotably, Gartner also highlighted that Cloud SaaS is expected to continue its importance in total Cloud spending. Cloud SaaS spending is expected to stay consistent as total Cloud spending grows.Gartner estimates that Cloud SaaS spending would account for 36.5% of 2022's total Cloud spending.\nBut AWS is not one to be rolled over. Business Insider reported that AWS has partnerships counting over 100K companies that it relies on to build software applications. The top companies have also developed highly successful collaborations with Amazon, which serves AWS exclusively. As the #1 hyperscaler globally, while Amazon doesn't have the software expertise, it certainly has scale. Therefore, these firms can rely on AWS to give them business if they can consistently deliver. Insider added (edited):\n\n From joint marketing that piggybacks off Amazon's massive reach to referrals that turn into new business,\n the opportunities for AWS partners are \"unlimited,\"but only if they're willing to fight tooth and nail for them. AllCloud CEO Eran Gil emphasized that: \"I think if you choose to do what we did, which is operate specifically in their ecosystem and even more so dedicated to the ecosystem,\n they really put a lot of effort into making you successful.\" (from Business Insider article)\n\nSo, Is AMZN Stock A Buy Now?\nAWS is a critical component of our internal fair value (FV) estimates for AMZN stock. We determined that AWS is worth about 40% to 45% of AMZN's stock value. Therefore, a strong AWS segment growing fast and profitably is extremely important to Amazon stock's success moving forward.\nMoreover, our FV estimates indicate that AMZN stock is not expensive now.'\nAMZN stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.\nAMZN stock is also currently trading at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 23.9x. It's also just above its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean of 22.6x. Thus, even though the stock has been consolidating since August '20, its valuation has been getting more attractive as the company gains operating leverage.\nTherefore, we remain confident of the stock's prognosis in the short/medium term, as well as its long-term prospects.\nConsequently, wereiterate our Buy rating on AMZN 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