AMC: Winter Is Coming

Seeking Alpha2021-11-23

Summary US coronavirus cases are on the rise again. Domestic box office off to slow start in Q4. Working capital could go negative this quarter. Colleen Michaels/iStock Editorial via Getty Images A ...

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精彩评论

Nesaraime
2021-11-24
Nesaraime
Q4 gonna make or break amc. Retail apes can’t help them no more
beebeeyan
2021-11-23
beebeeyan
up up
- Gablcm:
  And away
deadcow
2021-11-23
deadcow
buy some
JarenSin
2021-11-23
JarenSin
Love this stock!
sst9383
2021-11-23
sst9383
like pls
- 2b8a22ff:
  Okau
LMC90
2021-11-23
LMC90
Like please
- sst9383:
  ok
- Veldin:
  Ok

发表看法

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While the company was able to beat extremely low analyst estimates, it still lost a bit of money and ongoing cash burn weakened the balance sheet. With more than half of Q4 already in the books, I wanted to look at where some of the key numbers for AMC stand.\nObviously, the most important number right now is in terms of the domestic box office. If people aren't going to the movies, AMC is going to have a hard time getting back to where it needs to be. Q3 was the best quarter for the business since the pandemic started, and October continued that positive trend by being the best individual month in about two years. On the Q3 conference call, CFO Sean Goodman made the following remark about theater grosses for the current quarter.\n\n Based on a Q4 domestic box office full cost of approximately $2 billion, we currently believe that our adjusted EBITDA and our operating cash burn is likely to turn positive in the fourth quarter.\n\nI should make the point that operating cash burn isn't what people normally look at, which is cash flow from operations on the cash flow statement. Also in that Q3 earnings call, we were reminded that AMC defines operating cash burn as \"operating cash flow before interest payments, pay back of deferred rent, and non-recurring rent prepayments and capital expenditures\". Thus, while the company may say it has positive operating cash flow, the real way most people calculate free cash flow is likely to be negative, even if the domestic box office gets to that $2 billion level.\nIf we look at Box Office Mojo Stats, the domestic box office through Sunday was at $967.8 million. Sunday was day 52 of a 92 day quarter, and it means that we have averaged about $18.6 million per day so far in Q4. Projecting that out for the entire three month period puts us at $1.71 billion for the quarter, which would fall well short of where AMC really wants to be. Luckily, we do have some holiday weekends still coming up, which should help, but there isn't that one true blockbuster this year that moviegoers are really waiting to see. Christmas falling on a Saturday also might impact things a bit, as it might cancel out part of a normal viewing weekend.\nThere is one other problem that AMC has to deal with, and it's something the company really can't do much about. The number of reported US coronavirus cases is on the rise again as temperatures start to really drop around the country. On October 24th, the 7-day moving average was under 64,000 cases per day, but as the graphic below shows, we're up almost 50% from that level. Last week there were some lockdowns announced in Europe as cases rise over there. Should there be any travel or entertainment restrictions announced in the US over the next couple of months, it will put a major dent into AMC's recovery plans.\nSource: CDC coronavirus stats\nAs investors know, the financial situation at AMC right now is not exactly great. To avoid bankruptcy during the pandemic, management had to take on a bit of high rate debt and take the share count from 52 million to over 513 million. At the moment, management really can't sell more shares because the company is brushing up against its authorized outstanding share count limit. Unless shareholders approve an increase in shares, more debt would be the only way to go, but it will be very costly. The table below shows some key financial data since the start of the pandemic, with dollar values in millions.\nSource: AMC quarterly/yearly filings\nIf Q4 turns out to be really bad, not only could we see working capital go negative, but the net debt pile could top $4 billion. The company doesn't need to raise any capital in the near term, which is good since most of its bonds are trading with low double digit yields currently. However, cash burn cannot continue forever, so the theater business needs to strengthen a bit at some point. Realistically, the best way for AMC to survive in the long run is for shareholders to allow an increase in the share count, because at a valuation of $21 billion right now, a little dilution could make a substantial improvement in the company's financial situation.\nIn the end, the first half of Q4 has not been great so far for AMC. Coronavirus cases are on the rise yet again, and the situation could easily get worse with temperatures falling as winter approaches. The domestic box office hasn't had a tremendous start to the quarter either, meaning AMC will likely burn through more cash as the year comes to a close. That means that shareholders should eventually allow for a share count increase to take advantage of a valuation that's jumped dozens of times since the pandemic increased if they want AMC to be viable long term.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":875711457,"gmtCreate":1637685877772,"gmtModify":1637685877772,"author":{"id":"3579004280603386","authorId":"3579004280603386","name":"Nesaraime","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbfd230e819ce6cc84a815dbb26f30ba","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579004280603386","authorIdStr":"3579004280603386"},"htmlText":"Q4 gonna make or break amc. Retail apes can’t help them no more&nbsp;","listText":"Q4 gonna make or break amc. Retail apes can’t help them no more&nbsp;","text":"Q4 gonna make or break amc. 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