Odds favor the Dow being higher at the end of 2021 and 125 years of history supports this

MarketWatch2021-06-16

Second half of the year tends to be strong for U.S. stocks GETTY IMAGES Odds are good that the U.S. stock market will be higher at the end of December. Don’t get too excited; these odds have nothing ...

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JR93
2021-06-16
JR93
US market always the great investment
7ed83f0f
2021-06-16
7ed83f0f
All in!!
- Leoneon8881:
  👍🏻
Tjs
2021-06-16
Tjs
Like and comment please
njkk
2021-06-16
njkk
Like and comment :)
BBBBBBBBBB
2021-06-16
BBBBBBBBBB
Ok like n comment pls
- Ultraviolet:
  Hi
Kelvinyoon26
2021-06-16
Kelvinyoon26
Like and comment

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Don’t get too excited; these odds have nothing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-odds-of-the-dow-being-higher-at-the-end-of-2021-are-about-two-in-three-11623737505?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-odds-of-the-dow-being-higher-at-the-end-of-2021-are-about-two-in-three-11623737505?mod=home-page","article_id":"1114934376","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114934376","pubTimestamp":1623823279,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Second half of the year tends to be strong for U.S. stocks\nGETTY IMAGES\nOdds are good that the U.S. ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"道指有望在2021年底走高，而125年的历史也支持这一点","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"Second half of the year tends to be strong for U.S. stocks\nGETTY IMAGES\nOdds are good that the U.S. stock market will be higher at the end of December. Don’t get too excited; these odds have nothing to do with how strong the U.S. economy is right now or the stock market’s impressive returns so far this year. In fact, the chance of a winning second half of 2021 would be the same even if stocks were in a bear market or the economy was in recession.\nThe reason why has to do with the stock market’s efficiency. Its level at any given point reflects all available information up to that point. For example, if on June 30 the odds were better-than-usual that stocks would be higher in six months’ time, traders would have already bid up prices to take those better odds into account. They wouldn’t wait until later in the year to up their bets.\nThat’s also true if the odds of a higher market were worse than usual. If traders at the midyear mark knew that the market would most likely be lower in six months’ time, they would sell immediately rather than wait.\nThe net result of their actions in both cases would that the market’s odds of rising in the second half of the year are more or less the same. Those odds are 66.9% — about two out of three — based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to its creation in the late 1890s.\nNotice from the chart below that these odds are largely the same regardless of what has happened with the Dow through mid-year. In those calendar years in which the Dow rose over the first six months, it in the second half rose 72.4% of the time. The increase from 66.9% to 72.4% is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine.\n\nOr take the first years of the presidential four-year term, which is the year we’re in now. Over the second halves of those years, the stock market has risen 64.5% of the time. That is not statistically significantly different than the odds that apply to all years.\nYou may be disappointed that a strong first half doesn’t increase the odds of a strong second half. Yet no one complained a year ago when the identical statistical analysis suggested that there was a two-out-of-three chance the stock market would be higher at the end of 2020. Sure enough, it was: Following a 9.6% decline for the first half of last year, the Dow rose 18.6% in the second.\nIt’s because of the market’s efficiency that a buy-and-hold strategy is so hard to beat over the long term. When you deviate from that buy-and-hold approach, you’re in effect betting that you know more and have greater insight than the collective wisdom of millions of other stock market investors. It’s not out of the question that you do, but — as history has shown numerous times — it’s a low probability bet.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":169478747,"gmtCreate":1623849536089,"gmtModify":1631890620493,"author":{"id":"3567160588479542","authorId":"3567160588479542","name":"JR93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09000967c3d6b1e608bc9e2703f4bdb1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567160588479542","authorIdStr":"3567160588479542"},"htmlText":"US market always the great investment","listText":"US market always the great investment","text":"US market always the great investment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169478747","repostId":1114934376,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":169177735,"gmtCreate":1623824973527,"gmtModify":1634027507276,"author":{"id":"3586167531065956","authorId":"3586167531065956","name":"7ed83f0f","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586167531065956","authorIdStr":"3586167531065956"},"htmlText":"All in!!","listText":"All in!!","text":"All 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