BlackBerry Revenue Struggle Continues

seekingalpha2021-06-28

Summary While top line beats, core business basically stagnating. Operating losses don't seem to be going away anytime soon. Recent rally won't hold if stock valued on fundamentals. Guirong Hao/...

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精彩评论

DevilXavier
2021-06-29
DevilXavier
Bull
NicLHT88
2021-06-28
NicLHT88
Wow
Nigelyhz
2021-06-28
Nigelyhz
Buy morr
56ea37dd
2021-06-28
56ea37dd
Nice
Steve5671
2021-06-28
Steve5671
Nice
- 8818cdf:
  ..
BrandonS
2021-06-28
BrandonS
welp

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While the company's shares have rallied at times recently, thanks to the retail trading mania, results have been rather poor. For the first quarter of its fiscal 2022 year, BlackBerry announced its lowest three-month revenue number under CEO John Chen. If this name loses the reddit fans that have propped up the stock, shares are likely to head lower as results just aren't there yet.\nIf you remember the company's previous earnings report, management discussed back in late March that it had entered negotiations for a potential sale of its patent portfolio. Thus, the revenue forecast for the Licensing segment was essentially reduced for the year, with the following commentary from management on that earnings call:\n\n However, appreciating that it will be useful to have an outlook for modeling purpose, the most conservative scenario in which sales, we modeled that sales does not happen or does not complete, full year licensing revenue will be in the region of $100 million. In this scenario, we assume that negotiation and regulatory review continue for the first half and therefore we expect revenue to be limited in the range of maybe $10 million to $15 million per quarter.\n\nFor the quarter, total revenues of $174 million came in about $3 million ahead of Street estimates. However, the composition of the revenue generated was not what many were hoping for. Licensing actually came in at $24 million, much higher than what estimates called for. As management stated on the conference call, some business came in earlier than expected. Just like many recent quarters that we've seen, the pull-forward in this segment made the overall quarter look less bad, and without this extra business, the top line would have easily missed estimates.\nThat revenue upside meant that the newly called Cyber Security and IoT segments only represented $150 million. The total on those two business lines was up a paltry $2 million over the prior year period, and down $18 million from Q1 2020. On the call, management said it expects cyber security revenue to come in at the low end of its previous guidance range for the full fiscal year. A good portion of BlackBerry's key metrics also weakened over the prior year period, as detailed in the graphic below.\n(Source: Q1 2021 earnings release, linked above)\nThe year-over-year numbers certainly aren't good, with annual recurring revenue down by $23 million. The dollar-based net retention rate has also dipped by 7 percentage points. Supporters will talk about the growth in the QNX backlog, and BlackBerry management said in the earnings release that this was a 9% year-over-year increase. That seems to be what the graphic is saying, but take a look at what was said in previous press releases (bold emphasis added). The following statements make that year-over-year growth rate seem not true, that this is actually a 5 quarter increase, taking a good chunk of that growth rate away.\n\n Fiscal Q1 2021 Document,linked here:\n\n\n The Company's QNX royalty revenue backlog was approximately $450 million at \n the beginning of the first quarterof fiscal 2021.\n\n\n Recent QNX release,linked here:\n\n\n BlackBerry also announced that BlackBerry QNX royalty revenue backlog has increased to $490 million at the \n end of its first quarter of fiscal year2022.\n\nWith the company's revenue base shrinking to a new low under this CEO, the rest of the income statement didn't look much better. Gross margins fell nearly 4 percentage points, while the operating loss excluding items jumped from $50 million to $62 million. The company matched Street non-GAAP loss estimates at a nickel per share. However, this was again due to a number of items that management excludes that are traditional expenses for companies like this, including stock-based compensation and intangibles amortization.\nFor the quarter, cash burn came in at $35 million, $3 million more than the year-ago period. The value of equity on the balance sheet dropped another $48 million, and there is a larger holding value of intangibles and goodwill combined than there is equity. Total deferred revenue dropped again from $294 million to $265 million, which will further impact the company's ability for the top line to grow moving forward. Billings were also down on a year-over-year and sequential basis.\nI mentioned in my previous article that the biggest argument against the name right now is valuation. I compared BlackBerry to IBM (IBM), which itself has had revenue troubles as it transitions its legacy businesses to more current ones. Even if BlackBerry were worth three times IBM on a price to sales basis, BlackBerry would be worth about $10.51 more than a year out. I don't see anything in last week's report that really changes that number, and one could argue my previous revenue growth hope for the following fiscal year now needs to come down a bit. The recent \"reddit rally\" has also pushed the name well above its key technical levels as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in red).\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nIn the end, last week's earnings report showed that the revenue struggles at BlackBerry have not subsided. Another licensing pull-forward helped the overall numbers look okay, but the core business is not doing well overall. Management reduced its guidance for both the Cyber Security and IoT segments, signaling that this latest turnaround will take longer than expected. If the stock cannot hold on to its reddit crowd base, shares will likely continue to pull back to where the valuation should realistically 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