应迅速加息？美联储或已丧失战胜通胀的最佳时机

腾讯自选股2021-12-16

导语美联储宣布提高缩减购债的规模，以遏制高企的通胀率。经济学家认为，若美联储不马上加息，或会丧失遏制通胀的最佳时机，因为通胀率一旦抬头，就会加速上涨。美国通货膨胀率已连续6个月处在5%以上，11月更是高达6.8%。市场预计，美国的通货膨胀率有失控的可能。现在距离美联储主席鲍威尔发表美国高企的通胀率是“暂时的”言论已有一段时间。本周三，美联储宣布，将翻倍缩减购债，把每月缩减购债规模提升至300...

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The Fed may have lost the best time to beat inflation","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/562ad670a99cd8e39d3c5320e8b3d115","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"导语美联储宣布提高缩减购债的规模，以遏制高企的通胀率。经济学家认为，若美联储不马上加息，或会丧失遏制通胀的最佳时机，因为通胀率一旦抬头，就会加速上涨。\n美国通货膨胀率已连续6个月处在5%以上，11月更是高达6.8%。市场预计，美国的通货膨胀率有失控的可能。\n现在距离美联储主席鲍威尔发表美国高企的通胀率是“暂时的”言论已有一段时间。本周三，美联储宣布，将翻倍缩减购债，把每月缩减购债规模提升至300亿美元，以遏制高企的通胀率。\n美联储这样做，也给投资者释放了一个信号：投资者预计缩减购债完成后不久，美联储就会加息。\n一些经济学家和企业高管认为，美联储已丧失战胜通胀的机会。\n他们担忧，如果美联储不马上加息，美联储可能会丧失遏制通胀的最佳机会，要知道管理高企的通胀率非常棘手，因为通胀率一旦抬头，就会加速上涨。\nAllianz的首席经济学家Mohamed El-Erian称，一旦通胀率高企之后，就容易发生两件事。一是通胀率上升，货币购买力就会下降，穷人将会遭受更大的冲击；二是，这种情况下，美联储会过度反应，之后可能经济出现衰退，进而民众收入会下降。这就是大家或将看到的整个过程。\nMohamed El-Erian称，美联储不应该等到缩减购债完成后再进行加息，而应该现在就迅速加息，因为通胀数据显示，美联储早就应该加息了。\nThe Conference Board的首席经济学家Dana Peterson表示，或许美联储现在更应该担忧高企的通货膨胀率。\nPeterson在撰文中表示，美联储必须现在采取行动避免过快增长的通胀率影响美国经济的扩张和削弱消费者的购买力。这意味着美联储需要进一步加快退出量化宽松的步伐，并在明年加息数次才行。\n需要注意的是，美联储并不想看到因为过快退出QE而影响了美国就业市场的复苏。\nPeterson表示，即将公布的就业市场数据将显示，美国基本已实现充分就业，但是高企的通胀已失去控制。\n在今年6月份，美联储预测，整个2021年通胀率将会达到3.4%，这一数字已比2%的预期目标高出很多了。10月份的数据显示，美国通胀率达到6.2%，11月份更是飙升至6.8%。\n换个角度想，即使现在美联储开始加速采取激进的措施，但在这种情况下加息能否奏效，这仍然存在许多问题。利率提高能够直接遏制过热的房地产市场，但是并无法直接解决供应链不畅和劳动力短缺的问题，这两个因素在过去1年间也推动了物价上升。\nUpwork的首席经济学家Adam Ozimek称，导致美国通胀率飙升的因素有三个：货币政策刺激、劳动力短缺以及供应链不畅，明年至少有两个因素会得到缓解。但是现在美联储需要做的不是耐心等待，而是立即采取措施。\n摩根士丹利的首席执行官James Gorman表示，当美联储开始加息的时候，金融市场难免会出现大跌。\n他补充称，但是美联储的工作不应该是担忧金融市场的表现，而更应该担忧宏观经济本身。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":690224246,"gmtCreate":1639671334453,"gmtModify":1639671334620,"author":{"id":"3586177722241250","authorId":"3586177722241250","name":"EliTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a52c68e0b84d7f61c9d9ccf225bb2bb8","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586177722241250","idStr":"3586177722241250"},"htmlText":"okay","listText":"okay","text":"okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690224246","repostId":1114779034,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":690281406,"gmtCreate":1639669683753,"gmtModify":1639669683753,"author":{"id":"4087263755014960","authorId":"4087263755014960","name":"小虎小虎小小虎","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4087263755014960","idStr":"4087263755014960"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690281406","repostId":1114779034,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7010462,"gmtCreate":1639669690159,"gmtModify":1639669690189,"authorId":4087263755014960,"author":{"id":4087263755014960,"idStr":"4087263755014960","authorId":4087263755014960,"name":"小虎小虎小小虎","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":690281406,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":31,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1114779034"}