两大不确定因素下，12月美股还能涨吗？

智通财经网2021-12-03

尽管市场面临着对Omicron新冠病毒变种的担忧和更鹰派的美联储，一些投资者仍在衡量12月份美股是否会延续其强劲表现的历史趋势。根据Stock Trader's Almanac的数据，11月和12月分别是1950年以来标普500指数表现第二好的月份及第三好的月份，平均涨幅分别为1.7%和1.5%。然而，由于人们担心新型病毒变体可能影响全球经济增长，以及美联储主席鲍威尔周二表现出的鹰派态度，今年...

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Youn7276
2021-12-04
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Eclim
2021-12-02
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2021-12-02
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href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/613237.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>尽管市场面临着对Omicron新冠病毒变种的担忧和更鹰派的美联储，一些投资者仍在衡量12月份美股是否会延续其强劲表现的历史趋势。\n根据Stock Trader's Almanac的数据，11月和12月分别是1950年以来标普500指数表现第二好的月份及第三好的月份，平均涨幅分别为1.7%和1.5%。\n然而，由于人们担心新型病毒变体可能影响全球经济增长，以及美联储主席鲍威尔周二表现出的鹰派态度，今年...</p>\n\n<a 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December?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c833c444e0d7f5c6d2712772066d3485","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"尽管市场面临着对Omicron新冠病毒变种的担忧和更鹰派的美联储，一些投资者仍在衡量12月份美股是否会延续其强劲表现的历史趋势。\n根据Stock Trader's Almanac的数据，11月和12月分别是1950年以来标普500指数表现第二好的月份及第三好的月份，平均涨幅分别为1.7%和1.5%。\n然而，由于人们担心新型病毒变体可能影响全球经济增长，以及美联储主席鲍威尔周二表现出的鹰派态度，今年11月的涨幅在最后几天出现逆转，导致该指数当月下跌0.8%。\n标准普尔500指数今年迄今已上涨21.6%，仍接近历史高点。尽管上述风险不太可能在短期内消散，但如果从历史表现来看，今年美股股市可能仍会表现强劲。\n美股历史如何表现？\nBespoke Investment Group的数据显示，自1928年以来，12月标普500指数有74%的时间实现了正回报，超过了以往任何一个月。此外，今年是标准普尔500指数第十次在11月下跌，但今年的涨幅超过10%，且在发生这种情况的前九年，股票在12月收盘时上涨。由此可见，如果今年剩下的时间里表现强劲的话，11月的疲软只是支撑了这一趋势。\nBespoke宏观策略师George Pearkes称，动能(Momentum)肯定是一个因素。如果股市全年都在上涨，而人们减持并追逐，其可能想在年底前增持。\nLPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick也表示，当标普500指数今年前11个月表现强劲时，12月的涨幅往往更为积极。\n科技股受何影响？\n对于科技股而言，有关美联储将采取更鹰派立场的预期可能是一个不受欢迎的事态发展。据悉，科技股在标普500指数中的权重过大，曾推动该指数今年创下纪录高位。\n此外，鲍威尔周二表示：“经济非常强劲，通胀压力较大，因此在我看来，考虑结束资产购买，我预计，我们将在即将召开的会议上讨论这个问题。”受此消息影响，美股股市大跌，美国国债收益率上升。\n然而，通常在市场预期美联储政策将更为鹰派后，美债收益率上升削弱了股市对部分投资者的吸引力，并可能令估值较高的股票承压，因为其有可能侵蚀其长期现金流的价值。据Refinitiv Datastream数据显示，标普500指数信息技术板块的未来12个月预期市盈率为27.5倍，而历史平均水平为20.8倍。\n专业人士观点\n安联投资管理公司(Allianz investment Management)高级投资策略师Charlie Ripley表示:“随着政策的潜在变化即将到来，市场参与者应该预计在这个未知领域，市场将出现更多波动。”\n此外，高盛也表示，一波大规模感染导致封锁的“下行”情景可能会使全球经济增速在2022年第一季度放缓至2%，比目前的预测低2.5个百分点。\n然而，许多投资者认为股市将继续上涨。其中，Natixis Investment Managers的投资组合策略师Jack Janasiewicz表示，市场一直在寻找抛售的借口。然而，强劲的企业业绩和经济扩张的可能性应能防止股市大幅下跌。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":601710647,"gmtCreate":1638566562784,"gmtModify":1638566572873,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601710647","repostId":1114136338,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":603826837,"gmtCreate":1638400562431,"gmtModify":1638400562642,"author":{"id":"3587018322327346","authorId":"3587018322327346","name":"Eclim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/850fb38750b36cfd4680abe53d532d5f","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3587018322327346","authorIdStr":"3587018322327346"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603826837","repostId":1114136338,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6832660,"gmtCreate":1638541963098,"gmtModify":1638541963189,"authorId":3573460384591971,"author":{"id":3573460384591971,"idStr":"3573460384591971","authorId":3573460384591971,"name":"kimxuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2d7a18ffeb65e33066b9137a4de8f12","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":603826837,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[开心]","text":"[开心]","html":"[开心]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":603895774,"gmtCreate":1638393996236,"gmtModify":1638394034691,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603895774","repostId":1114136338,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":40,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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