Fed Minutes Show Most Officials See Taper Starting This Year

Bloomberg2021-08-19

Most participants saw standard on price stability achieved Fed releases minutes of its policy meeting held in late July Most Federal Reserve officials agreed last month they could start slowing the ...

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Des123
2021-08-19
Des123
amazing
nickname168
2021-08-19
nickname168
ok
Frisbee
2021-08-19
Frisbee
ok
- nickname168:
  ok
onlyYou
2021-08-19
onlyYou
noted
- Frisbee:
  ok
1Man2Stonks
2021-08-19
1Man2Stonks
Is about time
- TraderNeo:
  [Cool]

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While the record shows that they don’t yet have agreement on the timing or pace of tapering asset purchases, most had reached consensus on keeping the composition of any reduction in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases proportional.\n“The FOMC minutes again reveal a wide spread of opinion on the question of the timing, speed and structure of the upcoming tapering,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics Ltd. said after the release.\nThe minutes showed split views on the durability of faster inflation as well as on key areas of policy making.\nInflation Debate\nWhile the recent surge in consumer prices has grabbed policy makers’ attention and prompted wide agreement on pulling back on asset purchases, “several” meeting participants were still worried that inflation could slump back into the pre-pandemic trend of running below the 2% target.\nOn the labor front, officials saw progress -- yet the late-July discussion also showed uncertainty over both near- and medium-term labor market slack, given the job destruction tied to the pandemic.\nPolicy choices going forward are also likely to be influenced by new appointees to the Fed Board as the Biden administration moves to fill as many as four positions by early 2022.\n“Several participants emphasized that employment remained well below its pre-pandemic level and that a robust labor market, supported by a continuation of accommodative monetary policy, would allow further progress toward” labor-market goals, the minutes said. “Several participants also commented that price increases concentrated in a small number of categories were unlikely to change underlying inflation dynamics sufficiently to overcome the possibility of a persistent downward bias in inflation.”\nStocks Slide\nTreasuries advanced after the release, though remained down for the session, with 10-year yields at 1.28% as of 3:47 p.m. in New York, compared with about 1.29% before the release. The S&P 500 Index of equities slumped 0.8%.\nFed policy makers have differed publicly in the weeks since the meeting over when the central bank should start tapering, with some, like Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, wanting to a see a “few more” strong jobs reports and others, such as Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren,saying he’s open to announcing plans for a reduction at the next meeting if employment figures come in well.\n“Many participants saw potential benefits” in ending the Fed’s bond buying before targets were hit for raising interest rates, the minutes showed. Policy makers also discussed the importance of disassociating moves on asset purchases from a decision on an eventual rate hike.\nSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Wednesday that he would like to see the tapering of the asset-purchase program done by the first quarter of 2022 -- a much faster pace than prior wind-downs.\nOn the composition of bond-buying purchases, “most participants remarked that they saw benefits in reducing the pace of net purchases of Treasury securities and agency MBS proportionally.”\nThe minutes indicate that officials still see room for labor-market improvement.Job gains have been strong, averaging 617,000 a month through July. The unemployment rate stood at 5.4% last month, but broader measures still show slack.\nThe employment-to-population ratio for workers between 25 and 54 years old was 77.8% last month compared to 80.5% at the start of 2020, while Hispanic and Black unemployment rates remain high at 6.6% and 8.2%.\nThe recovery has been strong with both supply and demand imbalances pushing prices higher. The Fed’s inflation indicator rose at a 4% pace for the 12 months ending June compared with the Fed’s 2% target.\nThe minutes showed that “most participants” remarked that their standard for progress had been achieved with respect to the price stability goal.\nFed officials cut their benchmark lending rate to zero in March 2020 and announced they would buy $200 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities and $500 billion of Treasuries to support market functioning. By December 2020, they realigned their guidance saying they would purchase $80 billion a month in Treasuries and $40 billion a month on mortgage securities “until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals.”\nThe asset purchases have lowered longer-term interest rates and helped fuel a rise in housing prices and other financial assets, with one-month gains in home price indices breaking records while stock indexes trade around record 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about time","listText":"Is about time","text":"Is about 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