Dropbox: Last Call For Cheap Cloud Storage Stock

seekingalpha2021-03-17

Summary Dropbox is not a fast-growing cloud storage play. But what it lacks in growth, it makes up with its cheap valuation. Claiming that this stock trades at less than 6x forward sales doesn't do ...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

KHYAP
2021-03-17
KHYAP
Valid
BOTAKYAP
2021-03-17
BOTAKYAP
Good opportunity [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
- 7e2fc997:
  gd opportunity to buy now
Xiaojb07
2021-03-17
Xiaojb07
Need follow Lao li buy

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112885657?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-03-17 15:24","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","id":"1112885657","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Dropbox: Last Call For Cheap Cloud Storage Stock","media":"seekingalpha","content":"<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nDropbox is not a fast-growing cloud storage play. But what it lacks in growth, it makes up with its cheap valuation.\nClaiming that this stock trades at less than 6x forward sales doesn't do ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414312-dropbox-last-call-for-cheap-cloud-storage-stocks\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dropbox: Last Call For Cheap Cloud Storage Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDropbox: Last Call For Cheap Cloud Storage Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 15:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414312-dropbox-last-call-for-cheap-cloud-storage-stocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nDropbox is not a fast-growing cloud storage play. But what it lacks in growth, it makes up with its cheap valuation.\nClaiming that this stock trades at less than 6x forward sales doesn't do ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414312-dropbox-last-call-for-cheap-cloud-storage-stocks\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"DBX","symbol_name":"Dropbox Inc.","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414312-dropbox-last-call-for-cheap-cloud-storage-stocks","article_id":"1112885657","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112885657","pubTimestamp":1615965844,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nDropbox is not a fast-growing cloud storage play. But what it lacks in growth, it makes up ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"DBX":"Dropbox Inc."},"translate_title":"Dropbox：廉价云存储股票的最后呼声","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DBX":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nDropbox is not a fast-growing cloud storage play. But what it lacks in growth, it makes up with its cheap valuation.\nClaiming that this stock trades at less than 6x forward sales doesn't do justice to this investment.\nDrobox is highly free cash flow generative.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nDropbox (DBX) is out of favor with the investment community. This has been the underlying thesis for so long that many investors are now losing patience.\nWhile the rest of tech goes from expensive to super expensive, Dropbox is one of the few tech stocks out there still valued at less than 6x forward sales.\nMoreover, it remains highly free cash flow generative. There's a lot more than meets the eye here. Read on to see why this stock makes a lot of sense to me.\nRevenue Growth Rates and Market Discussion\nDropbox is still so absurdly cheap, it's practically a steal. This is a free cash flow machine that the market will recognize.\nObviously, needless to say, that being too early is the same as being wrong. You need to be rewarded atsomepoint to be justified for having invested here in the first place. And the path so far has been anything but rewarding. But I believe ''this time it's different.'. Allow me to add a little context.\nIn 2020, practically any company I know in tech went vertically up. If we are to be slightly more selective and discuss cloud-facing tech companies, well then, you probably know how it went over the last twelve months. Even Box (BOX), a company that I've been bearish for a while, is up 100%.\nBut then, we come back to Dropbox. A stock that is up a feeble ~55% over the past twelve months.\nHaving said that, I know this really gets us deep into the state of affairs- just how much the market is soaring that being up 55% is something to sneer at? This is totally absurd.\nBut I'm not judging, I'm simply reporting the facts for you to make up your own mind as to the sustainability of all these SaaS, IoT-facing, CDNs, cybersecurity, productivity platforms, and whatever else you wish to bundle in here.\nYet, facts are facts: compared with a myriad of othertechstocks, Dropbox has been an underperformer. And that's why I'm so bullish on its prospects (again).\nSource: author's calculations; company guidance\nJust to repeat, we are not talking about some high growth content storage solution. We are talking about a company that's growing at somewhere around very low-single digits (in the best case).\nWhy the Market is Misunderstanding Dropbox\nDropbox is not a dead technology. It's a content storage solution aimed at small and medium businesses as well as private users. For example, through Work Spaces, users can bring projects and teams together in a single workspace. All the tools that users need from team collaboration, content management, and eSignatures - everything within one interface.\nThe key opportunity for Dropbox is to benefit from remote collaboration. But again, please note, you are not being asked to pay a large multiple for a \"story\" stock - let's stick to the facts.\nComments on Dropbox's Heavy Stock-Based Comp\nCountless times investors declare that Dropbox has a heavy stock-based comp and that its free cash flow should subtract its stock-based comp.\nNow, please keep in mind that this is an industry-wide practice amongst tech companies to have a lavish stock-based comp for executives. It does not pertain simply to Dropbox.\nSource: Q4 2020 Press Statement\nNevertheless, on that account, allow me to retort that Dropbox's founder and CEO Andrew (\"Drew\") Houston has more skin in the game than any other shareholder.\n\nAccordingly, his interests are very much aligned with the common shareholder. In fact, I fully suspect this owner-operated business commands such high free cash flow margins precisely because the CEO is highly incentivized to drive forward intrinsic value.\nWhat's more, I ask the reader, aside from Adobe (ADBE), what other tech stocks are out there right now repurchasing their own stock? Not only has Dropbox deployed more than 80% of its free cash flow as share repurchases, but it then goes on to announce a new $1 billion share repurchase program (open ended), amounting to 10% of its market cap. If this doesn't show the right alignment, purchasing back your stock when it's undervalued, I don't know what does.\nValuation - Why this Still Makes Sense to Me\nThe stock trades at less than 6x forward sales. This is not a deep value stock. I know that. But it's also not very expensive either. Again, the appeal here of this investment is a case thatno news is good news. You don't need any positive surprises, just for Dropbox to continue ticking along over time.\nYou are being offered a chance to deploy your capital alongside management, which has a lot of skin in the game and has demonstrated that its business is highly recurring with a significant amount of visibility in 2021.\nSimply said, you are getting a business that steadily ticks away on the top line, with minimal surprises, and you are not being asked to pay a large premium for participation.\nCompared with many other SaaS stocks, this company is very cheaply valued. But more importantly, unlike other SaaS stocks that are consistently declaring that they areinvesting for growth, in the case of Dropbox, it is steadily growing, albeit slightly slower, but it's a business that generates solid free cash flow, too.\nConsider this, over Dropbox's trailing twelve months, the business generated approximately $490 million of free cash flow. Now, let's compare this free cash flow figure, with that of Box's.\nBox's free cash flow over its trailing twelve months dramatically improved from the previous year and it's now reached $120 million- approximately a quarter of the free cash flow generation of Dropbox. Meanwhile, Dropbox trades for approximately $11 billion, while Box trades for about $3.7 billion (a third of the valuation).\nThe Bottom Line\nDropbox \"feels\" like a coiled spring. Indeed, when the rest of tech dramatically sold-off the past few weeks, Dropbox held its ground - again reinforcing that this is most likely as cheap as it's going to get and that investors are not being asked to pay for a story stock.\nAt just 6x forward sales, together with strong free cash flow, and a large share repurchase plan, a lot more can go right than wrong here.\nAllow me to preempt your question: if this is such a bargain, why is the author not invested here? And that's a fair question. When you have a highly concentrated portfolio, not everything makes the cut.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":324159691,"gmtCreate":1615976662713,"gmtModify":1703495779403,"author":{"id":"3562150941808297","authorId":"3562150941808297","name":"KHYAP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/134bef1736613cccadcb5091adcc32aa","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Valid","listText":"Valid","text":"Valid","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324159691","repostId":1112885657,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":324371379,"gmtCreate":1615969741291,"gmtModify":1703495666565,"author":{"id":"3569894447597850","authorId":"3569894447597850","name":"BOTAKYAP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/335356fded8c7d08f8ee1bbe18b6f105","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Good opportunity&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"Good opportunity&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"Good opportunity [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324371379","repostId":1112885657,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3815658,"gmtCreate":1615970720595,"gmtModify":1635753231185,"authorId":3575885376205492,"author":{"id":3575885376205492,"authorId":3575885376205492,"name":"7e2fc997","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":324371379,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"gd opportunity to buy now","text":"gd opportunity to buy now","html":"gd opportunity to buy now"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":324365445,"gmtCreate":1615966225587,"gmtModify":1703495616976,"author":{"id":"3555044358664058","authorId":"3555044358664058","name":"Xiaojb07","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d1278d3e8a0f666e68318532f083d0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Need follow Lao li buy","listText":"Need follow Lao li buy","text":"Need follow Lao li buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324365445","repostId":1112885657,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":30,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1112885657"}