如果美联储反击通胀，股市将暴跌20%？

金十数据2021-05-19

Satori Fund创始人尼尔斯预计，美联储很快将停止实施宽松的货币政策来应对通胀。本周迄今，纳斯达克指数下跌近2%，通胀担忧已经搅乱了市场。但是知名对冲基金Satori Fund的创始人尼尔斯认为，真正的暴跌还没到来，他预计美联储将会在今年晚些时候发出停止宽松的货币政策的信号，这可能引发超过20%下跌。尼尔斯表示，上周通胀数据高于预期，加上其他央行已经放弃宽松的货币政策，很有可能将美联储...

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精彩评论

永易
2021-05-20
永易
它们只负责印钞
向上学习
2021-05-20
向上学习
这个时候就别重仓了，股市波动剧烈。
- CPY91:
  [贱笑]
Daphnez
2021-05-20
Daphnez
只希望美联储按照它每次承诺的那样，年底再说。希望手里套着的年底都可以解套。。然后赶紧跑。。

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Fund创始人尼尔斯预计，美联储很快将停止实施宽松的货币政策来应对通胀。\n\n本周迄今，纳斯达克指数下跌近2%，通胀担忧已经搅乱了市场。但是知名对冲基金Satori Fund的创始人尼尔斯认为，真正的暴跌还没到来，他预计美联储将会在今年晚些时候发出停止宽松的货币政策的信号，这可能引发超过20%下跌。\n尼尔斯表示，上周通胀数据高于预期，加上其他央行已经放弃宽松的货币政策，很有可能将美联储逼入墙角，加速其“转鹰”的步伐。\n他说：\n\n “如果食物价格、能源价格和住房价格都快速上升，那么美联储没有任何选择。他们可以继续找借口，这某种程度上会让我想起2007年时候他们也说过能应对好次贷危机，但是显然并没有。”\n\n他预计，美联储可能会发出信号，在今年夏天开始削减每月1200亿美元资产购买计划。\n美联储方面，官员们坚持认为通胀是疫情封锁之后经济重启的暂时性情况。美国劳工统计局上周最新发布资料显示，4月份消费者价格自2008年以来增长最快，这可能会对投资者带来恐慌。美联储暗示，即使按照他们的测量标准，通胀超过2%，他们也愿意继续实施宽松的货币政策。\n然而，正如尼尔斯指出的，疫情期间，其他经济体已经打算放弃实施宽松的货币政策。七国集团里的加拿大央行已经开始，英国央行紧随其后，其他国家如俄罗斯和巴西已经加息——尼尔斯表示这种现象将促使美联储加快行动。\n\n “全球其他国家已经开始加息。我认为，美国之后将会赶上。如果股市估值低，那么这对市场无关紧要，但问题是，目前估值位于高位。”\n\n\n尼尔斯在他的博客上写道，市场10年期盈亏通胀平衡率达到自2013年以来最高水平。他表示，由于美联储扩大债券发行，通胀担忧被人为地压低。\n但是尼尔斯预计今年夏天开始美联储将削减每月1200亿美元资产购买计划，尼尔斯预计将发出放弃实施宽松的货币政策的信号。若真如此，他的观点是，股市届时将会有10%-20%调整，无利润增长企业受到的打击最大，2021年为止的情况就是如此：\n\n “如果13年来美联储一直实施宽松的货币政策，现在他们突然停止实施，你就要重新考虑你的投资方向要不要改变，以获得更好的风险回报，估值较低的公司才能赚更多钱。”\n\n作为一名对冲基金经理，尼尔斯展示了大公司和小公司的盈利情况。他解释道，大一点的科技公司会展示出较强盈利能力，如Google 和Facebook会比无利润竞争者更强，因为那些竞争者在利率上升的情况下不能发挥相同的竞争力。此外，能源部门和金融企业如摩根大通集团，仍然是他最喜欢的价值股。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":197248809,"gmtCreate":1621470834801,"gmtModify":1634188932419,"author":{"id":"3572570976229359","authorId":"3572570976229359","name":"永易","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0c7a1716df55f3daf7eafd128d8c4a2","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"它们只负责印钞","listText":"它们只负责印钞","text":"它们只负责印钞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197248809","repostId":1112795658,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":197667574,"gmtCreate":1621465063098,"gmtModify":1634189039741,"author":{"id":"3576884869412058","authorId":"3576884869412058","name":"向上学习","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70af8809a95756364cc82fcfde2f404","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"这个时候就别重仓了，股市波动剧烈。","listText":"这个时候就别重仓了，股市波动剧烈。","text":"这个时候就别重仓了，股市波动剧烈。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197667574","repostId":1112795658,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4387216,"gmtCreate":1621485017501,"gmtModify":1635404839010,"authorId":3574420432302365,"author":{"id":3574420432302365,"authorId":3574420432302365,"name":"CPY91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f51e88b6608b2272f3a641e3d849a0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197667574,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[贱笑]","text":"[贱笑]","html":"[贱笑]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":197876817,"gmtCreate":1621449918239,"gmtModify":1634189086513,"author":{"id":"3581567152678426","authorId":"3581567152678426","name":"Daphnez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24c3ea3a9bb05be92b9c9f4f6f844e6d","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"只希望美联储按照它每次承诺的那样，年底再说。希望手里套着的年底都可以解套。。然后赶紧跑。。","listText":"只希望美联储按照它每次承诺的那样，年底再说。希望手里套着的年底都可以解套。。然后赶紧跑。。","text":"只希望美联储按照它每次承诺的那样，年底再说。希望手里套着的年底都可以解套。。然后赶紧跑。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197876817","repostId":1112795658,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":13,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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