国内车企们的特斯拉对抗史

格隆汇研究2021-07-12

上周特斯拉Model Y标准续航版上市，定价27.6万元，续航525公里，百公里加速5.6秒。而长续航Model Y续航585，双电机全驱动，百公里加速5秒。预计8月开始交付。对比此前的长续航版和高性能版，价格直降7万和10万，幅度之大超市场预期。特斯拉的降价，大概率是用了宁德生产的磷酸铁锂电池，成本更低。27.6万元的定价，注定了model y标准版将成为特斯拉新的爆款车型。这次标准续航版...

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精彩评论

EricPhang
2021-07-13
EricPhang
五菱神车可以一战
我是小嫩韭菜呀
2021-07-12
我是小嫩韭菜呀
看看吧。太多政治因素。
SKEr
2021-07-12
SKEr
噢
StreetMoon
2021-07-12
StreetMoon
beware. catch the knife
tanshenyong
2021-07-12
tanshenyong
tesla。。。
SiewMin
2021-07-12
SiewMin
好

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Y进入30万元以内的价格区间，直接把成本焦虑扔给了各大车企。而纵观全市，一个能打的都没有。\n说到这儿，还有人记得之前刹车门的事吗？\n4月19日，上海车展的特斯拉展台，一女子身穿“刹车失灵”字样T恤，站在一辆特斯拉展车车顶高声呼喊：“特斯拉刹车失灵。“ 随后特斯拉面对的是铺天盖地的负面消息、新闻、舆论以及4月下滑的销量，在国内众多的看空声中，这条巨大的鲶鱼似乎只是稍稍沉寂了一下再次一跃而起，用销量堵住了所有看热闹人的嘴。\n根据乘联会数据显示，2021年6月特斯拉中国批发销量为33,155辆，其中Model Y销量为11,623辆，Model 3销量为21,532辆，包括出口5017辆。\n\n特斯拉的到来，逼着国内车企内卷。而它的目标绝不仅仅是其他新能源车，而是所有的燃油车企，随着里程的增加和自动驾驶的升级，未来转型慢点的燃油车都会被淘汰。这条鲶鱼在在推动电动化和智能化方面做出了极大的贡献，厂商之间的军备竞赛也将继续打起来。如果梳理国内车企和特斯拉的对抗史，我们能够看到，这场没有硝烟的战争正在越来越胶着，群雄逐鹿，大抵如此。\n一对一的单挑赛\n随着特斯拉的横空出世，销量在国内市场开启一个新纪元。首先跟上的是三家新势力蔚小理和传统车企比亚迪，其余无论是合资还是自主的国内传统车企因为燃油车体系庞大，转型不易，当时一直处于观望状态，这也是为什么现在传统车企的市值赶不上新能源汽车公司市值的原因，战略布局晚一步就需要付出更多的资金和时间去弥补。\n蔚来选择在18年5月交付第一辆ES8，为国内的新能源汽车市场打头阵，随后是ES6、小鹏的G3以及理想One。为了迎合国内消费者的喜好，三家不约而同地在第一辆车上选择了SUV车型。再后来是蔚来的EC6以及小鹏的轿跑P7。\n在战略布局上，三家选择了各自为营单打独斗。蔚来定位豪华车，主打服务体系；理想主打增程式，解决电动车里程焦虑；理想和蔚来选择先自我提升再直面对手。而小鹏则定位为中高端电动车，主打智能化，其汽车电子电气架构最接近特斯拉。\n\n2020下半年之前似乎一直是行业的寒冬，蔚来股价跌跌不休濒临破产。而在黎明前的黑暗里，国内出现了带着磷酸铁锂刀片电池的比亚迪汉这样的爆款，带动了整个行业的信心，随后秋季又出现五菱宏光Mini这样的神车，更是打开了国内A00级别车型的市场。\n\n销量上来看，蔚来汽车6月共交付8,083台新车，环比增长20.4%。首次月交付超八千台，创历史新高。今年上半年，蔚来共交付新车41,956台，达到去年全年交付量的95.9%。\n小鹏汽车6月总交付量达6,565台，环比增加15%。上半年累计交付量为30,738台，是去年同期的5.6倍。小鹏G3全新改款G3i将于7月正式发布，预计9月启动交付。小鹏P5将于四季度启动交付，有望推动小鹏销量继续上升。\n理想汽车6月交付理想ONE 7,713台，环比上涨78.41%。今年上半年，理想汽车累计销量达到31,886台。\n比亚迪汉EV的销量虽然后劲不足，但是市场更看重比亚迪DM-i的超级混动系列，秦PLUS DM-i6月销量将近万辆。\n\n\n这最早下场的四家车企选择了用不同的打法各自为政，去抢占特斯拉的市场，现在看来稍有成效，但是和特斯拉的销量还有一部分的差距。\n这里需要解释一下，之所以忽略微型爆款车型销量是由于A00级别车型一般价格较低，配置上无法满足自动驾驶的成本，在营收上也不能给车企带来太大的增量。而当下新能源汽车发展电动化是第一步，智能化是第二步，所有的车企最重要的还是需要有20万以上并且搭配自动驾驶服务的爆款车型才能给公司带来质的飞跃。\n传统车企+互联网的围剿赛\n从去年年底开始，眼看着三家新势力以及比亚迪的市值一骑绝尘，传统车企这时候才明白，不破不立。而在智能化的浪潮催化下，互联网大厂纷纷下场，选择和传统车企取长补短。上汽选择和阿里合作，百度拥抱吉利汽车，腾讯和恒大成立合资公司，而华为的棋局就更大了。\n\n今年四月底，华为的阵营出现了三剑客——北汽、长安和小康。北汽首先出了搭载华为激光雷达的极狐车型，将于今年年底交付。接着长安也宣布和华为合作CHN高端品牌。而小康股份，和华为有更深的合作，合作造车加上华为的销售渠道为小康全部打开，造就了小康今年上半年市值翻三倍的景象。\n今天整车行情中，小康继续领涨源于周五盘后一则股权激励，从新能源车销量目标来看，2021年保底销量为3.2万台，追求目标为4万台；2022年新能源汽车保底销量16万台，追求目标20万台，行权价66.03元。\n\n今年下半年，和华为合作的赛力斯SF5的销量会反应到小康的销量数据上来，管理层明年目标敢定这么高的目标，说明明年会有新车型上市，管理层对此有信心。而且侧面从行权价来看，一般会大幅折价，但这次小康的发行价接近当下股价，更加说明管理层对公司未来十分看好。和华为的合作，让小康脱胎换骨。而如果明年销量真的能够达到16万辆新能源汽车，小康的市值可能会在2000-3000亿之间。\n除了三剑客，华为合作的还有比亚迪、广汽、江淮，阵营逐渐扩张。江淮这几日的高涨幅也是传闻和华为进行了合作。再者就是广汽了，上周五盘后广汽公告，同意全资子公司广汽埃安新能源汽车有限公司与华为(AH8 车型)项目的实施。项目总投资1.5亿元人民币，计划搭载GMC2.0机电耦合系统，并于2022年12月量产。\n从六月的销量上来看，广汽汽车销量为16.6万辆，同比下降11.01%。细分项上除了广汽埃安系列同比增长103.75%之外（整个系列销量再次破万）其他系列车型同比都是下降的。\n一般来说传统汽车的短板就在于汽车智能化上面，和华为的合作，大概率可以提振广汽的销量。传统车企如果能好好抓住这次机会，在燃油车整体下行的趋势下顺利转型，不仅是自救之路，甚至还可以纵横捭阖对抗特斯拉，争夺市场份额。\n\n说在最后\n最新的天风数据里面继续上调了全国新能源汽车的销量，国内全年销量预计可达到270万辆，同比翻番。欧洲预计可达220万辆；美国全年预计70万辆，同比翻番。21年全球销量580万，一直在超预期。\n由于行业的高景气度，各路公司都想在新能源汽车市场里分一杯羹，似乎只要挂上“造车“的title就能一劳永逸。但造车没那么简单，特斯拉总是可以用出其不意的战略打法，侵占市场份额同时保持自身的利润率，让所有车企在后面追逐。想要真正打赢这场军备竞赛，国内车企需要跳出浮于表面的心思，戒骄戒躁，虽然时间不等人，但是用心做出的产品消费者才会买单。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":142103055,"gmtCreate":1626134891677,"gmtModify":1626134891677,"author":{"id":"3460431194087628","authorId":"3460431194087628","name":"EricPhang","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/e6ef626345d811c8745d26bfe4714ec9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"五菱神车可以一战","listText":"五菱神车可以一战","text":"五菱神车可以一战","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142103055","repostId":1112768702,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":146711056,"gmtCreate":1626099126975,"gmtModify":1633930133390,"author":{"id":"4088590779250400","authorId":"4088590779250400","name":"我是小嫩韭菜呀","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24f7eeb59c8d2a1cb8d5a36fa6f8e62d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"看看吧。太多政治因素。","listText":"看看吧。太多政治因素。","text":"看看吧。太多政治因素。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146711056","repostId":1112768702,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":146421359,"gmtCreate":1626097238271,"gmtModify":1633930181025,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"噢","listText":"噢","text":"噢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146421359","repostId":1112768702,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":146435467,"gmtCreate":1626096122359,"gmtModify":1633930205455,"author":{"id":"3581450937859419","authorId":"3581450937859419","name":"StreetMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66309fcb0dabf3ca68ead8e251963340","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"beware. 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