Electronic Arts: Strong Fundamentals Continue Amid Dip Buying Opportunity

Seeking Alpha2021-09-28

Summary Electronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period. EA recently delayed its big fall release Battlefield 2042, but the move provides a strong buying opportunity. EA...

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精彩评论

RS142
2021-09-29
RS142
Opportinity for buying.
Huatkor
2021-09-29
Huatkor
Great old EA. My childhood favourite company.
jazinfinity
2021-09-29
jazinfinity
Esports for the win!
- jazinfinity:
  comment and like
klo
2021-09-29
klo
J
Tf
2021-09-29
Tf
Please like and comment
- ken26ksh:
  Done
- AlexNg79:
  Nice
- Tf:
  TQ
3eb0d2e3
2021-09-29
3eb0d2e3
Ok
- 3eb0d2e3:
  ok

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The stock has underperformed since mid-2018 but now the gaming companies are being priced near value stock levels. They have recently had a significant dip in the stock price, due to the delay of their big release of the year, Battlefield 2042 to November 19th. This is giving a great entry point into EA stock, with most of those sales still able to be captured with a later release date. EA has a great technical setup with the stock pushing near its all-time high of $148.97 several times in 2021 since first reaching the level in mid-2018. As you can see below, revenue has increased significantly to 5.7B in the past year, with 2022 GAAP revenue guidance at $6.8 Billion, yet the stock is still consolidating since mid-2018. This gives potential for an outsized move upwards when those highs are broken. Higher lows have been encouraging and this may be the last significant 15%+ dip before breaking out to all-time highs.\nData by YCharts\nGreat Fiscal Q1\nElectronic Arts had a strong Fiscal Q1, even with comparison to a very strong 2020 period. Net bookings which are the most accurate indicator of business performance were up 3% over the prior year to $6.136 Billion USD. Guidance for 2022 was to $7.4 Billion in billings - or 20.6% growth. Revenue follows billings so we will see Revenue and earnings flow through next year from the strong results of late. The sports franchises of Madden, NHL, and especially FIFA continue to lead the way for EA with consistent performance. The sports franchises had a combined 140 million players in the past year, with over 31 million playing the newest FIFA 2021 iteration. Sports are predictable and popular games, something that adds stability to revenue and earnings over time. FUT matches are still growing at a strong pace with 48% growth over last year in Q1. Battlefield's delay may hurt the billings number as some sales will be lost to competitors such as Call of Duty Vanguard from Activision Blizzard (ATVI). However, game delays in recent years have not negatively impacted sales much for those titles. These delays due to tough deadlines are very commonplace in the industry and I believe the negative reaction in EA stock on a one-month delay is overdone. All the while, Apex Legends has seen a resurgence with many players going back to the game and it proved to be a more lasting title than many had expected. The game actually had the most players ever in the recent season, impressive for a game that has been out for several years now.\n\nAs you can see above, the fiscal year billings growth has been lumpy but overall, I expect high single digits to low double digits growth over time. The increase to FY 2021 was at least partially due to the coronavirus, although the environment continues to be very supportive there. Restrictions on travel and other entertainment worldwide continue to be a significant tailwind on gaming hours played. Live services which include microtransactions and game passes continue to become a larger part of EA's business. FIFA's success is a big portion of this, and EA announces 4 seasons for Battlefield 2042 per year with passes to purchase. This should give a solid income stream for the years after the game's release. The announced Battlefield Portal allowing people to create new maps using old releases seems great to foster engagement in paid season passes. The new Hazard Zone mode adds additional content as well with an Escape from Tarkov-like squad survival scenario. One thing is clear - EA put more effort into Battlefield 2042 and keeping it interesting for 2+ years than the past few series titles. EA confirmed it would be an every other year release, with things like Battlefield Portal likely working with multiple releases. These, plus the new mobile Battlefield game that's to come, make me more bullish for the future to take some share from Call of Duty. Some investors may be worried about the $7.4 Billion billings number for Fiscal 2022 with the game delay, but matching that bar should give the stock a very significant boost over the next 12 months.\nThe company does also have a significant share buyback program which is helping to support the stock during any dips. EA bought back 976 million in stock over the past year - just under 3% of the total market cap of 36 Billion US. Expect more significant buyback activity in the coming weeks with the stock having dipped again due to the Battlefield 2042 delay. EA also pays a small dividend at 17 cents per quarter. While this is a yield of around 0.5%, it can grow significantly over time and shows the ongoing commitment to shareholders by the management team.\nContinued Growth in Mobile\nEA has continued to try to catch up to its competition like Activision Blizzard in the mobile area. EA had already purchased Glu Mobile earlier this year to expand their growing stable of casual mobile games. Now, EA recently completed the purchase of Playdemic for 1.4 Billion, the makers of golf clash. According to Sensor Tower, during the strong pandemic period,Golf Clash did an impressive $132.8 million USD of revenue. 10x sales is a reasonable price to pay for a game that has a very strong and growing userbase and a talented team behind it. EA is thinking long term with Playdemic likely to work on other IP from EA's stable in the coming years. They hinted on the conference call at a global Madden or FIFA mobile game where they have the license already - a tantalizing thought for investors. Mobile is growing for EA with 16% growth over 2019 levels in 2021, but they continue to invest heavily in this area. Casual games have a very long tail and are among the most profitable due to the lower operating expenses associated with the game creation. EA has also announced they are making a mobile game for the popular Apex Legends Battle Royale game, as well as the beforementioned one for Battlefield. This is likely after having seen Activision succeed with its mobile Call of Duty game, and the fact they haven't monetized many franchises in mobile yet. This is a chance for EA to really grow mobile as a portion of the business, with it only representing 13.5% of bookings over the last year. However, the growth rate for mobile will accelerate with it at 20% in Fiscal Q1 and likely to provide a big boost in coming years.\nConclusion\nThe recent dip is an excellent buying opportunity for those that don't own any EA stock. The stock has been pushing against its all-time high level near 150, and when it breaks through to the upside should see significant gains. It is trading at a very inexpensive 16x Forward P/E - giving it near value stock status in the current market. Any additional lockdowns or restrictions would be bullish for EA as well, as many young people continue to spend heavily on gaming. EA has set itself up well for the long term, by focusing on their weakness in the mobile category with acquisitions and use of existing IP. Mobile is an area where EA has significantly lagged its major competition, but the moves made in 2021 will pay big dividends in future years - with shareholders likely to benefit.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":862873454,"gmtCreate":1632872693012,"gmtModify":1632872693182,"author":{"id":"3574118564601995","authorId":"3574118564601995","name":"RS142","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22d2d9b1f352da24e6ea75b557ac987a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574118564601995","authorIdStr":"3574118564601995"},"htmlText":"Opportinity for buying.","listText":"Opportinity for buying.","text":"Opportinity for buying.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862873454","repostId":1112583450,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862841813,"gmtCreate":1632872066979,"gmtModify":1632872067114,"author":{"id":"3581919183376534","authorId":"3581919183376534","name":"Huatkor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3897aace055b5fa9f58089c1e880d8","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581919183376534","authorIdStr":"3581919183376534"},"htmlText":"Great old EA. My childhood favourite company.&nbsp;","listText":"Great old EA. My childhood favourite company.&nbsp;","text":"Great old EA. My childhood favourite company.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862841813","repostId":1112583450,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862885866,"gmtCreate":1632869609579,"gmtModify":1632869609742,"author":{"id":"3577229603264633","authorId":"3577229603264633","name":"jazinfinity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1208221a570d94e334b2d76cd0baf1d6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577229603264633","authorIdStr":"3577229603264633"},"htmlText":"Esports for the win!","listText":"Esports for the win!","text":"Esports for the 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<u>like</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862819411,"gmtCreate":1632868177453,"gmtModify":1632868177587,"author":{"id":"3583974243419968","authorId":"3583974243419968","name":"klo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d3dcf83877ea1c1bf83a2ba2b540df","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583974243419968","authorIdStr":"3583974243419968"},"htmlText":"J","listText":"J","text":"J","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862819411","repostId":1112583450,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862831397,"gmtCreate":1632867168983,"gmtModify":1632867169086,"author":{"id":"3578723402945421","authorId":"3578723402945421","name":"Tf","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578723402945421","authorIdStr":"3578723402945421"},"htmlText":"Please 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