Elon Musk’s Twitter Stake Is Forcing Tesla Investors to Consider the Key-Man Risk

Barron's2022-04-12

The on-again-off-again dalliance between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Twitter’s board of directors is generating some volatility for Twitter stock and some questions for Tesla investors.Musk wouldn’t be a ...

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Samwich
2022-04-12
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The billionaire entrepreneur was supposed to join the board on Saturday; the social media start-up disclosed the turnabout on Monday.And the stock reacted to the news, tweeted by Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal. Shares of Twitter (ticker: TWTR) traded as low as $44.71 before closing up 1.7% at $47.01. The intraday peak-to-trough move was more than 7% of the Friday closing price.Since Musk disclosed his roughly 9% stake a week ago, Twitter shares are up about 20%. In the same period, Tesla shares are down about 10%. Now, to be fair, the market has been weak. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are off about 3% and 6%, respectively.Still, Tesla investors might wonder if Musk’s involvement could affect his ability to do his day job running the most valuable car company on the planet.That possibility, known as the key-man risk, has always existed with Tesla, but Wall Street experts like Gerber Kawasaki CEO Ross Gerber and Roth analyst Craig Irwin don’t see all that much reason for additional concern.Gerber, a bullish Tesla investor, told Barron’s that he would like to see Tesla develop a “deeper bench” of management talent, but doesn’t believe Musk is focused on that right now. Tesla is the largest holding in Gerber’s ETF, Gerber Kawasaki AdvisorShares (GK), at more than 11% of the portfolio.Musk has his plate full, ramping up two new plants—one in Berlin, one in Austin, Texas—and working on Tesla’s self-driving software. He is even developing a robot to do the mundane manufacturing tasks that humans now handle.Irwin looks at the question of the key-man risk another way. Of course, there are catastrophic outcomes that no one can rule out completely, but “Tesla is Elon Musk,” said Irwin, likening his impact to that of Steve Jobs at Apple (AAPL) decades ago. “He will be the most important person at Tesla for the next 20 years,” he added.Musk is 50, turning 51 in June. Irwin doesn’t see Musk leaving for Twitter or being overly distracted by his investment.Nonetheless, the analyst is cautious in his assessment of Tesla. He rates shares Hold, but has a low $250 price target. Tesla closed at $975.73 on Monday. Irwin believes Tesla should be one of the most valuable auto makers around, just not one of the most valuable companies in the market.Tesla is the fifth most valuable company in the S&P 500 and worth roughly 3.5 times more than Toyota Motor (TM), the second most valuable car maker in the world.The Musk-Twitter impact on Tesla stock looks likely to fade. Tesla investors, after all, are used to Musk’s tweets and Musk doing other things—such as running his spacecraft company, SpaceX, with President Gwynne Shotwell.Shotwell is a well-respected executive in the aerospace industry. Investors may want to see the emergence of her counterpart at Tesla in coming years.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":613114232,"gmtCreate":1649756014223,"gmtModify":1649756014983,"author":{"id":"3575000650579772","authorId":"3575000650579772","name":"Samwich","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/333bbe08da61ec501a2da43a65e31462","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575000650579772","authorIdStr":"3575000650579772"},"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613114232","repostId":1109298576,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7345264,"gmtCreate":1649756018334,"gmtModify":1649756018484,"authorId":3575000650579772,"author":{"id":3575000650579772,"idStr":"3575000650579772","authorId":3575000650579772,"name":"Samwich","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/333bbe08da61ec501a2da43a65e31462","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":613114232,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"K","text":"K","html":"K"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1109298576"}