Uber: Ugly Duckling Is Growing Up

Seeking Alpha2021-12-17

Summary Uber's delivery business is booming and expanding resulting in the company leveraging economies of scale to reach profitability. Mobility business is fast recovering from the pandemic as the ...

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精彩评论

dahae
2021-12-17
dahae
👛👛👛👛
- rachellll:
  🍏🍏🍏🍏
- dahae:
  🍎🍎🍎
Baoxiaolong
2021-12-17
Baoxiaolong
I love Uber. Better than grab
AliPharma
2021-12-17
AliPharma
ok
- AliPharma:
  ok
Caipeng4L
2021-12-17
Caipeng4L
Great
- bostonxsgp:
  no
kevinlaisq
2021-12-17
kevinlaisq
Pls like
- Eddieash:
  ooo
- Veldin:
  Ok
- Meowlisa:
  Ok
jimmylaw
2021-12-17
jimmylaw
Like comment
- kevinlaisq:
  ok
- 48bfd3e1:
  Ok

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In the early days of going public, Uber suffered ignorance and unfavorable views from the investing community just like the ugly duckling, but today, I believe Uber is just around the corner from blossoming into a beautiful and successful swan.\nUber's business is turning around as the underlying trend forms in favor of the company. From the depths of the pandemic to the pace of recovery seen today, the world changed for good, at least for Uber. One of those changes is food delivery. During the pandemic, consumers could not comfortably leave their houses and dine out resulting in those consumers turning to food delivery permanently growing a business that has been the primary reason for Uber's continuous losses. Thus, as the trend of food delivery continues to grow from the pandemic, Uber's business through economies of scale has been enjoying the favorable trend, and I believe that the convenience of food delivery will allow permanent penetration of delivery in our daily lives. Further, as mobility recovers as well from the pandemic in all aspects, Uber is likely to report a profitable 2022 fiscal year. Although there are risks of dilution,Covid and macroeconomic risks, I believe now is finally the time to consider investing in the ugly duckling.\nFavorable Trend\nPandemic brought devastation across nearly all industries and aspects of our lives; however, for Uber, I believe pandemic turned out to be beneficial for the company. Uber's major businesses are delivery and mobility. Before the pandemic, while the mobility business was starting to report positive adjusted EBTIDA, the delivery business continued to struggle. The market was relatively smaller and competitive leading to Uber spending immense amounts of capital on sales, marketing, and development. Even worse, the economies of scale were not seen at the time. However, times have changed for the delivery business. First, the food delivery industry exploded in popularity. For example, Uber's delivery business grew almost 3 fold from 2019Q4. This massive growth in the industry allowed Uber to leverage economies of scale leading to improving bottom lines. Further, the adaption of the delivery culture in the daily lives of the people allowed Uber to expand its business to more than delivering foods. The company is currently delivering groceries, Christmas trees, and even alcoholic beverages. Therefore, as the market continues to mature, Uber can leverage economies of scale to turn around its loss-leading delivery business into a profitable giant.\nSome critics may argue that delivery was only successful because consumers were not comfortable going outside during the pandemic. I would like to argue otherwise. A pandemic may have been the driving factor behind the adaption of the delivery service by the public; however, convenience was what is and will sustain this business model. Through innovation seen in the past decades, we have seen how much consumers care about convenience through the rise of Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms(NASDAQ:FB), and Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL). Why socialize digitally when you can meet others physically? Why order packages online and wait days when you can simply go buy that product today? Why use smartphones when you already had mobile phones? Consumers will never go back to the more inconvenient way of life.\nUnlike the delivery business, the mobility business was damaged by the pandemic, but it is expected that the mobility business will return to 2019 levels as the impact of the pandemic wanes. As the picture below shows, the mobility business in the world's biggest cities has almost returned to normalcy after the lockdown showing that the demand for ride-hailing services is still present. Further, as pandemic subsides and offices re-open, the mobility business will continue to grow.\n\nCovid Fears\nAlthough pandemic was the leading cause of the delivery business success, a worsening pandemic will most likely damage my bullish thesis. A mobility business, a business segment set to lead profitability, will be heavily damaged; however, contrary to the mainstream media's opinion, I believe this scenario is unlikely to unfold due to vaccines and public sentiments.\nPfizer(NYSE:PFE) on December 8th confirmed that theirCovid vaccines are still effective against the Omicron variant. The company said that a preliminary study \"demonstrates that three doses [of the vaccines] neutralize the Omicron variant while two doses show significantly reduced neutralization titers.\" The company's claims are backed by Omicron orCovid outbreak unfolding in many European nations including Italy, France, the UK, and more.\n\nUsing France as an example, the first picture above shows theCovid cases rising exponentially while the second picture shows the death rate is range-bound. The vaccination rate, shown in the third picture, backs up Pfizer's claim regarding the efficacy of its vaccines because while infections are rising, fatalities are limited due to the vaccines.\nFurther, the public's resent for more lockdowns and extreme restrictions are most likely to make Uber's mobility segment of the business more resilient than previous outbreaks.\nFinancials and Valuation\nUber's balance sheet along with valuation is great. According to Uber's quarterly report, Uber reported revenue growth of 72% year-over-year to $4.8 billion dollars with $8 million positive adjusted EBITDA. After years of losses, the delivery businesses reached a near breakeven level to -0.1% adjusted EBITDA margin. Further, the company's mobility or mobility business had a 5.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, which was on par with the pre-pandemic margins. Overall, the continual improvement of the company's business is resulting in decreasing losses and a stronger balance sheet. Uber has about $5.6 billion in cash and about $33 billion in total assets while the total liabilities were about $20 billion bringing total liability to asset ratio (L/A) to about 60%. All in all, I believe Uber's balance sheet is strong enough to sustain the company's operation given no major changes.\nThe valuation of Uber is slightly high. Uber, still unprofitable, trades at about 4.7 times price to sales ratio and about 3 times the forward price to sales ratio. These numbers may seem minimal in comparison with other companies, but because the margin expansion for Uber is questionable, I would say that Uber's valuation today is slightly high. However, as the business turns to reach profitability in the near future, I think the slightly high valuation seen in Uber may be manageable for some investors.\nRisks\nInvesting in Uber comes with significant risks including dilution risks and macroeconomic risks. Uber has been extremely unprofitable for the past years resulting in massive dilution.Uber's outstanding shares increased 12.35% in 2018, 160.62% in 2019, 40.42% in 2020, and 8.2% to date in 2021. As such, to maintain the company's operations, Uber continuously diluted its existing shareholders. Thus, any hurdles to reaching profitability may result in even more dilution in the future. Also, the reason for Uber's financial health today is because of the massive dilution. Further, macroeconomic risks beyond Uber's control may impact the company. Inflation is already at historical highs, and it may continue to stay at these levels resulting in an even faster pace of tapering and rising rates by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, because Uber is still not profitable, raising rates will most likely affect the company negatively.\nSummary\nNo one knows for sure if Uber will blossom into a beautiful swan from an ugly duckling, but today, I am starting to be cautiously bullish on Uber. Pandemic ultimately benefited the company's overall operations leading to a boom in the delivery business, which aided in Uber reaching unit economics. Further, the delivery business is expected to expand as consumers adapt to a more convenient way of life. For the mobility business, there were significant damages; however, as Uber has shown, the mobility business is strongly recovering to 2019 levels as the economies reopen. Therefore, as Uber attempts to turn around its business, I believe investors should worth consider investing in Uber. After all, Uber may blossom into a beautiful swan.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":699040324,"gmtCreate":1639728108760,"gmtModify":1639728108916,"author":{"id":"3560092322694803","authorId":"3560092322694803","name":"dahae","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/137beae1f6048901843924ba46796740","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560092322694803","authorIdStr":"3560092322694803"},"htmlText":"👛👛👛👛","listText":"👛👛👛👛","text":"👛👛👛👛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699040324","repostId":1108936663,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7021112,"gmtCreate":1639728248653,"gmtModify":1639728248756,"authorId":3586435391928672,"author":{"id":3586435391928672,"idStr":"3586435391928672","authorId":3586435391928672,"name":"rachellll","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7855a29f75174783f11b5102e8a7c8ba","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":699040324,"type":1,"supId":7021098,"prevId":0,"content":"🍏🍏🍏🍏","text":"🍏🍏🍏🍏","html":"🍏🍏🍏🍏"},{"id":7021098,"gmtCreate":1639728119065,"gmtModify":1639728119094,"authorId":3560092322694803,"author":{"id":3560092322694803,"idStr":"3560092322694803","authorId":3560092322694803,"name":"dahae","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/137beae1f6048901843924ba46796740","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":699040324,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"🍎🍎🍎","text":"🍎🍎🍎","html":"🍎🍎🍎"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":699059453,"gmtCreate":1639726723738,"gmtModify":1639726724110,"author":{"id":"3581896632900578","authorId":"3581896632900578","name":"Baoxiaolong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3807f63227b4128c0ee5f1811f39e3eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581896632900578","authorIdStr":"3581896632900578"},"htmlText":"I love Uber. Better than grab&nbsp;","listText":"I love Uber. Better than grab&nbsp;","text":"I love Uber. Better than grab","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699059453","repostId":1108936663,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":699027101,"gmtCreate":1639726334410,"gmtModify":1639726334556,"author":{"id":"3586596744781365","authorId":"3586596744781365","name":"AliPharma","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ae50feeb2edce44d991e8e753fb37e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586596744781365","authorIdStr":"3586596744781365"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699027101","repostId":1108936663,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7020909,"gmtCreate":1639726345992,"gmtModify":1639726346087,"authorId":3586596744781365,"author":{"id":3586596744781365,"idStr":"3586596744781365","authorId":3586596744781365,"name":"AliPharma","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ae50feeb2edce44d991e8e753fb37e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":699027101,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":699028390,"gmtCreate":1639725599341,"gmtModify":1639725599460,"author":{"id":"3559707274382889","authorId":"3559707274382889","name":"Caipeng4L","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f993c63500bb212c82247f8e3d3d4417","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559707274382889","authorIdStr":"3559707274382889"},"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699028390","repostId":1108936663,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7020840,"gmtCreate":1639725945688,"gmtModify":1639725945789,"authorId":3584157491931754,"author":{"id":3584157491931754,"idStr":"3584157491931754","authorId":3584157491931754,"name":"bostonxsgp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55d82efabeabddb18cc2d6ca7a71a36f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":699028390,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"no","text":"no","html":"no"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":699023034,"gmtCreate":1639725301130,"gmtModify":1639725301735,"author":{"id":"3572874548548490","authorId":"3572874548548490","name":"kevinlaisq","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/329de1199f764a89b7cadf50308e183d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572874548548490","authorIdStr":"3572874548548490"},"htmlText":"Pls 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