Coinbase's Path To The Moon Will Be A Bumpy One

seekingalpha2021-03-29

SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all ...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Isaias
2021-03-29
Isaias
H
hyhop
2021-03-29
hyhop
Oo
Missunnymay
2021-03-29
Missunnymay
Invest with our eyes open!
- PJoo:
  Not easy.
jazinfinity
2021-03-29
jazinfinity
Bumpy path but still one to the moon? Let's go!
- jazinfinity:
  comments please
理财的孩子
2021-03-29
理财的孩子
For Coins
- 理财的孩子:
  Get
- SSVC:
  [强][握手]
ExodusX
2021-03-29
ExodusX
Bump bump
- njkk:
  hmm

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If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory LandscapeThe US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listingsCoin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at >20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCapOther Regulatory RisksRegulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All MarketThere are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.Table 2:Coinbase's Total Annual Transaction VolumeSource:BusinessofAppsValuationThe tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020Table 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020Table 5:Coinbase's Historical ValuationsVerdictIn my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":352747903,"gmtCreate":1617008565802,"gmtModify":1634523167802,"author":{"id":"3575112668857811","authorId":"3575112668857811","name":"Isaias","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15696a266219774c9f40ffc17e1d125c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575112668857811","authorIdStr":"3575112668857811"},"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352747903","repostId":1108187442,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":352755075,"gmtCreate":1617007450197,"gmtModify":1634523174538,"author":{"id":"3570089742250981","authorId":"3570089742250981","name":"hyhop","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c810c839e0549461f5f465b72f9be83","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570089742250981","authorIdStr":"3570089742250981"},"htmlText":"Oo","listText":"Oo","text":"Oo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352755075","repostId":1108187442,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":352724392,"gmtCreate":1617006833316,"gmtModify":1634523178870,"author":{"id":"3556250856995166","authorId":"3556250856995166","name":"Missunnymay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f04bf0f8337f672045a61e1df7607a6c","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3556250856995166","authorIdStr":"3556250856995166"},"htmlText":"Invest with our eyes open!","listText":"Invest with our eyes open!","text":"Invest with our eyes open!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352724392","repostId":1108187442,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3912753,"gmtCreate":1617021270285,"gmtModify":1635747030530,"authorId":3572863479502236,"author":{"id":3572863479502236,"idStr":"3572863479502236","authorId":3572863479502236,"name":"PJoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1df329f4341646fc633446858d34c31","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":352724392,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Not easy.","text":"Not easy.","html":"Not easy."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":352787615,"gmtCreate":1617005642137,"gmtModify":1631884063722,"author":{"id":"3577229603264633","authorId":"3577229603264633","name":"jazinfinity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1208221a570d94e334b2d76cd0baf1d6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577229603264633","authorIdStr":"3577229603264633"},"htmlText":"Bumpy path but still one to the moon? Let's go!","listText":"Bumpy path but still one to the moon? Let's go!","text":"Bumpy path but still one to the moon? Let's go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352787615","repostId":1108187442,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3911016,"gmtCreate":1617005741833,"gmtModify":1635747540078,"authorId":3577229603264633,"author":{"id":3577229603264633,"idStr":"3577229603264633","authorId":3577229603264633,"name":"jazinfinity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1208221a570d94e334b2d76cd0baf1d6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":352787615,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"comments <u>please</u>","text":"comments <u>please</u>","html":"comments <u>please</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":352781714,"gmtCreate":1617005288938,"gmtModify":1634523191649,"author":{"id":"3555464381271027","authorId":"3555464381271027","name":"理财的孩子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93cd37a262dd5bbd44770192dd5619cd","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555464381271027","authorIdStr":"3555464381271027"},"htmlText":"For&nbsp;Coins&nbsp;","listText":"For&nbsp;Coins&nbsp;","text":"For Coins","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352781714","repostId":1108187442,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3910967,"gmtCreate":1617005482777,"gmtModify":1635747542746,"authorId":3555464381271027,"author":{"id":3555464381271027,"idStr":"3555464381271027","authorId":3555464381271027,"name":"理财的孩子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93cd37a262dd5bbd44770192dd5619cd","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":352781714,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Get","text":"Get","html":"Get"},{"id":3912591,"gmtCreate":1617020074122,"gmtModify":1635747040537,"authorId":3574906731000207,"author":{"id":3574906731000207,"idStr":"3574906731000207","authorId":3574906731000207,"name":"SSVC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545a5ea462ff4ac7cc100bd3d8d97f72","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":352781714,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[强][握手]","text":"[强][握手]","html":"[强][握手]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":352789832,"gmtCreate":1617005057326,"gmtModify":1634523192500,"author":{"id":"3576063635462913","authorId":"3576063635462913","name":"ExodusX","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576063635462913","authorIdStr":"3576063635462913"},"htmlText":"Bump bump","listText":"Bump bump","text":"Bump bump","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352789832","repostId":1108187442,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3911208,"gmtCreate":1617007207605,"gmtModify":1635747525667,"authorId":3575950181915531,"author":{"id":3575950181915531,"idStr":"3575950181915531","authorId":3575950181915531,"name":"njkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6382201e8e84ccd3f8e89b9a28e74607","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":352789832,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hmm","text":"hmm","html":"hmm"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":23,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1108187442"}