房地产软着陆后，美联储转向还有戏吗？

川阅全球宏观2023-06-28

东吴宏观指出，房地产软着陆让通胀及就业的“隐忧”再起，如果房地产成功软着陆，那么美联储抗击通胀及就业的难度无疑将再进一步，在此基础上政策转向不会太早。当前种种迹象表明美国房地产正先于经济软着陆。尤其是二季度以来，以新屋开工和成屋销售为代表的一系列指标持续回暖，亚特兰大联储最新预测在连续8个季度下滑后，住宅投资有望在今年二季度为美国GDP贡献正增长。鉴于美联储一年多来已累计加息500bp，住宅投资在...

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精彩评论

楓_
2023-06-28
楓_
供给克制部份原因是之前供应链紊乱造成的
Santi小汤
2023-06-28
Santi小汤
世界一起崩，汇率反而可能没啥事[捂脸] 苦了负债者和投资者
超超_6103
2023-06-28
超超_6103
软着陆又不行，硬着陆更加是不可以要完蛋，反正这些媒体现在一天到晚就是东升西降，美国风险巨大要崩溃，风景这边独好
Chinese大海
2023-06-28
Chinese大海
美国软着陆？你敢说说东方大国印度吗

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2018年不仅加息起点低，且加息幅度也不大，所以对地产的影响就较小，房屋销量温和回落23%（图6-7）。超额供给，是原因也是结果。历史上4次房价崩溃的相似之处都是在加息周期中累计了过量的库存。前期过量的发放房屋建筑许可制导致待售房屋数量激增（图8-9）。过去4次平均增加许可证发放量73%，带动了64%的待售房屋数量。从历史经验看，需求比供给对地产的影响更重要。2018年，房屋许可证发放数量增加176%，带领待售房屋数量激增146%。但是，由于2018年加息起点低（从0利率开始）+加息幅度还不大（累计225bp），美国居民购房需求并未被严重削弱。最终在需求的支撑下，房产快速回暖，也帮助美国避免了一次衰退。这次有何不同？需求经受住了加息的冲击，而供给弱成为乐观的主要理由，这一次美国经济陷入衰退“不容易”。需求端，在经历了“史诗级”加息后，根据调查数据显示，居民对于“负担不起”的抱怨仍明显低于此前衰退前的高位。这与疫情后美国家庭资产负债表明显改善以及就业保持韧性有关：2023年Q1美国家庭偿债负担仍低于疫情前的水平。而居民认为当前最主要的限制因素不是房价而是利率（图 10-11），随着加息接近尾声，需求指标都开始触底反弹（图 12）。二是供给端，低库存加强开发商的建筑信心，无论是营建许可还是新房开工均开始边际好转（图 13）。与2018年相比，本轮地产周期虽然需求下降的幅度更大，但是供给明显更“克制”，供需失衡的情况反而要更好（库存月数更低），而2018年美国地产下行并没有带来经济衰退。除此之外，从国际对比上看，美国住宅投资以及房价的上涨幅度上，远不及加拿大及瑞典，至少在其他两国地产尚未出现问题前，我们可以不用太担心美国（图14至15）。但值得注意的是，房地产软着陆让通胀及就业的“隐忧”再起。美国通胀压力迟迟未解，如果房地产成功软着陆，那么美联储抗击通胀及就业的难度无疑将再进一步（图16）。在此基础上，政策转向则不会太早，也为未来经济和市场平添变数。风险提示：地产超预期反弹导致美联储紧缩程度高于市场预期；美联储超预期紧缩导致美国金融体系再次出现危机。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":768711991803984,"gmtCreate":1687952850373,"gmtModify":1687952993805,"author":{"id":"3550524081516381","authorId":"3550524081516381","name":"楓_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a2c63d945d827677e632a3c66c2e7d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3550524081516381","authorIdStr":"3550524081516381"},"htmlText":"供给克制部份原因是之前供应链紊乱造成的","listText":"供给克制部份原因是之前供应链紊乱造成的","text":"供给克制部份原因是之前供应链紊乱造成的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/768711991803984","repostId":1107780203,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":192088953049112,"gmtCreate":1687928507699,"gmtModify":1687928966779,"author":{"id":"3491292989404422","authorId":"3491292989404422","name":"Santi小汤","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa66a5fafca2039a62e8cd28e4a46ff","vip":2,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3491292989404422","authorIdStr":"3491292989404422"},"htmlText":"世界一起崩，汇率反而可能没啥事[捂脸]&nbsp;苦了负债者和投资者","listText":"世界一起崩，汇率反而可能没啥事[捂脸]&nbsp;苦了负债者和投资者","text":"世界一起崩，汇率反而可能没啥事[捂脸] 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