泡泡玛特市值蒸发百亿美金，“后浪茅台”还能浪多久？

节点财经2021-04-03

过去一个月，盲盒“印钞机”泡泡玛特（POP MART）市值蒸发了百亿美元，究竟是价值回归还是红利不再? 根据3月26日公司公布的2020财年年度报告，2020年泡泡玛特营收为25.1亿元，同比增长49.3%，经调整净利润达到5.9亿元。全年共售出了超5000万件潮流玩具。但这依然无法阻挡公司股价的下跌趋势。从2 月 17 日泡泡玛特股价创出 107港元历史高峰后，其股价就一路震荡下跌。截至4月1...

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精彩评论

Eison817
2021-04-04
Eison817
赞
YourCFP
2021-04-04
YourCFP
娱乐以后是投资方向，但是娱乐方面的明星投资是盲盒吗？游戏，博彩可能性大些吧
hhyw
2021-04-04
hhyw
跌吧😁😁
anieny
2021-04-04
anieny
不错
- LawrenceCW:
  时间是一个人的生活方式的时候我就会觉得自己是
Justin_L
2021-04-03
Justin_L
不久
高明兴_8399
2021-04-03
高明兴_8399
有点意思
- hhyw:
  哈哈

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How long can \"Houlang Maotai\" last?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca86820f576b415aca23e137a4bc0e4d","symbols_score_info":{"09992":0.9},"content_text":"过去一个月，盲盒“印钞机”泡泡玛特（POP MART）市值蒸发了百亿美元，究竟是价值回归还是红利不再?\n根据3月26日公司公布的2020财年年度报告，2020年泡泡玛特营收为25.1亿元，同比增长49.3%，经调整净利润达到5.9亿元。全年共售出了超5000万件潮流玩具。\n但这依然无法阻挡公司股价的下跌趋势。从2 月 17 日泡泡玛特股价创出 107港元历史高峰后，其股价就一路震荡下跌。截至4月1日的股价为64.55港元，总市值为905亿港元。\n这家公司究竟怎么了？\n/ 01 / 印钞机效应或难持续\n泡泡玛特成立于2010年，发展初期参考了香港潮玩超市LOG-ON的模式，主要销售新奇、有趣的文创产品、玩具和杂货等。随后，公司逐步转型成自主开发IP产品，目前IP品牌收入占比超八成。\n上市前3年，这家潮流百货零售品牌借助多元的IP品牌和盲盒等销售模式赚得盆满钵满。\n2019年，按零售价值计算，泡泡玛特是中国最大的潮流玩具品牌，市场份额为8.5%。招股书显示，2017年到2019年，其营收分别为1.58亿元、5.14亿元和16.83亿元，2018和2019年其营收分别同比增长225%和227%。公司3年内营收翻了10倍。\n期间，公司的净利润分别为156万元、9952万元和4.51亿元，3年内净利润翻了289倍，实现爆发式增长。如此迅猛的业绩增长，让其从一度小众的潮玩市场逐步进入大众视野，被称为“后浪们的茅台”。\n到2020年，公司的营收依然在增长，但相比此前超过200%的年度营收增速明显放缓。公司调整后净利润为5.9亿元，同比增长25.9%，相比3年翻289倍的情况同样难比。\n\n图源：泡泡玛特财报\n不过，公司该季度的财报也并非没有亮点。比如，公司此前过于依赖头部IP、收入结构过于集中的情况出现一定好转。\n此前，泡泡玛特创始人王宁曾指出，泡泡玛特的成功并非仅仅得益于盲盒，而是因为其形成了平台化的生态闭环，这个生态包括上游设计端的IP生产、中游销售渠道等供应链体系的建设，以及下游的潮玩文化社区等。\n公司的销售额增长，一方面是依靠对多元零售渠道的覆盖，另一方面是依托盲盒等商业玩法。\n财报显示，2020年泡泡玛特此前最重要的IP Molly 销售收入从前一年的4.56亿元下降至3.57亿元，同比下滑两成。与此同时，其另一IP Dimoo 营收从1亿元增加至3.15 亿；2019年新开发的IP品牌 SKULLPANDA也实现了3907万元的收入。\n/ 02 / 费用支出攀升，毛利率下降\n具体来看，过去一年泡泡玛特的经营业绩放缓主要在于费用支出大增。\n过去几年，泡泡玛特的营收渠道主要包括线下零售店、线上渠道、机器人商店以及批发四类。公司近几年营收的快速增长和线下门店的快速扩张有关。\n数据显示，2017年到2019年，其线下零售店分别有32家、63家和114家；机器人商店分别有43家、260家及825家，均增长迅速。\n2020年，这一门店扩张趋势依然保持。财报显示，2019年到2020年，其门店数量增至187 家，其中新开业 76 家；机器人门店从增加至1351 家，新开业 526 家；线上业务方面，公司2020年收入为4.66亿元，同比增长72%。\n扩张压力下，泡泡玛特的各项支出攀升。最明显的是2020年的销售成本从前一年的5.93亿元同比增长55%至9.19亿元；同期其经销及销售开支从3.63亿元同比增长73%至6.3亿元，均明显高于业绩增速。\n开支攀升重负下，公司的毛利率由2019年的64.8% 降至2020年的63.4%，其中自主产品的毛利率由71.2%降至68.7%。\n另外值得注意的是，由于疫情冲击等原因，泡泡玛特的存货情况正出现一定恶化趋势。财报显示，2020年其存货金额由2019年的 9000多万快速增至2.25亿元，存货周转天数也由46天增至78天。\n/ 03 / 泡沫还是价值回归?\n相比如今市值腰斩的境地，3个月前的泡泡玛特还是风光无限。\n2020年12月11日，泡泡玛特在港交所上市，发行价为38.5港元/股，募资50.25亿港元。公司彼时开盘价约为77港元/股，较发行价大涨约100%，市值很快突破千亿港元。\n对此市值，不少市场观点认为其中或存在一定泡沫。相比其他盲盒概念股，泡泡玛特的市值几乎可以说是“远超行业水平”。目前，A股市场有高乐股份、邦宝益智等多家盲盒概念股。截止2021年3月30日，高乐股份市值为19.42亿元；邦宝益智市值为25.84亿元。\n如果说彼时投资人愿意为泡泡玛特买单，更多是看好公司的发展增速。如今，随着公司发展逐步放缓，资本是否还会如此前那般热切？\n同时，除了市值争议，泡泡玛特目前还面临着不断涌入的竞争对手。过去一年，随着以泡泡玛特为首的潮玩股在资本市场被看好，这个市场的竞争对手正在快速增加。\n比如，不论是52TOYS、美拆等老玩家，还是推出了潮玩集合店TOPTOY的名创优品，以及BAT等互联网巨头，都正对潮玩行业加大布局。\n目前，泡泡玛特虽然还处于行业头部位置，但随着新玩家顺势崛起，潮玩行业或逐步走入多强争霸时代，其头部优势能保持多久令人生疑。\n同时，泡泡玛特基于ACG领域IP衍生的手办盲盒一度风靡，其中情怀粉丝发挥了不少作用。在此基础上，“随机抽取”“稀有款”等营销方式也为这些手办和潮玩增加了吸引力。\n不过，其盲盒模式带来的热度能够持续多久？如何保证能找到持续受欢迎的潮玩IP？强IP带来的成功能否持续？这些既是外界对泡泡玛特的疑问，也是这家公司自己需要解决的重要问题。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":340785360,"gmtCreate":1617493921950,"gmtModify":1634520821296,"author":{"id":"3576889252489012","authorId":"3576889252489012","name":"Eison817","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3afe658dbab12a61559497a97c05a2b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576889252489012","idStr":"3576889252489012"},"htmlText":"赞","listText":"赞","text":"赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340785360","repostId":1107531416,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":340710856,"gmtCreate":1617488682475,"gmtModify":1631889599521,"author":{"id":"3569263461157925","authorId":"3569263461157925","name":"YourCFP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f5e965075ba7b03f9c5aade30f04ed","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569263461157925","idStr":"3569263461157925"},"htmlText":"娱乐以后是投资方向，但是娱乐方面的明星投资是盲盒吗？游戏，博彩可能性大些吧","listText":"娱乐以后是投资方向，但是娱乐方面的明星投资是盲盒吗？游戏，博彩可能性大些吧","text":"娱乐以后是投资方向，但是娱乐方面的明星投资是盲盒吗？游戏，博彩可能性大些吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340710856","repostId":1107531416,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":340738384,"gmtCreate":1617485427648,"gmtModify":1634520838207,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"跌吧😁😁","listText":"跌吧😁😁","text":"跌吧😁😁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340738384","repostId":1107531416,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":340703561,"gmtCreate":1617466274753,"gmtModify":1617466274753,"author":{"id":"3557345951598078","authorId":"3557345951598078","name":"anieny","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dbb7884f0d6993fbf75ffead97f09c1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3557345951598078","idStr":"3557345951598078"},"htmlText":"不错","listText":"不错","text":"不错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340703561","repostId":1107531416,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3952986,"gmtCreate":1617473387273,"gmtModify":1635744544230,"authorId":3568626352541392,"author":{"id":3568626352541392,"idStr":"3568626352541392","authorId":3568626352541392,"name":"LawrenceCW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962262e528e64dff78a74edaba2a5aac","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":340703561,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"时间是一个人的生活方式的时候我就会觉得自己是","text":"时间是一个人的生活方式的时候我就会觉得自己是","html":"时间是一个人的生活方式的时候我就会觉得自己是"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":340448352,"gmtCreate":1617462594276,"gmtModify":1617462594276,"author":{"id":"3501113550178595","authorId":"3501113550178595","name":"Justin_L","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d4fc9cc59f9e5eff9a291919842f8f5","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3501113550178595","idStr":"3501113550178595"},"htmlText":"不久","listText":"不久","text":"不久","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340448352","repostId":1107531416,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":340449579,"gmtCreate":1617462111691,"gmt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